Team
Washington Commanders
NFC East
This is the cleanest way to split the Daniels story into the durable part and the borrowed part. His closing-time efficiency stayed top-5 in 2025 even as the record cratered, so the skill is real; the 8-4 was the skill plus a run of coin flips landing right. Teams that confuse the two overpay for the record. Teams that separate them know 2024 was better evidence about the quarterback than about the win count.
The whiplash years
MYTH TEST: the clutch gene. An 8-4 close-game season became 2-5 with the same quarterback.
WAS in one-score games
| Season | Record |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-6 |
| 2024 | 8-4 |
| 2025 | 2-5 |
Every team that won 65%+ of its one-score games (8+ played), 1999-2024
| Cohort | One-score win rate |
|---|---|
| That season (104 teams) | .756 |
| The next season | .512 |
| How many declined | 91 of 104 |
The 2024 run came with a story: Jayden Daniels simply does not lose the close ones. Then 2025 arrived: 2-5 in one-score games, same quarterback, same head coach. History said this out loud in advance. Of the 104 teams since 1999 that won 65% or more of their close games, 91 dropped off the next season, from a .756 clip back to a coin-flip .512. Clutch as a persistent team trait does not survive contact with the data. What Daniels actually kept is real (see the fourth-quarter efficiency); the coin-flip record was never his to keep.
Why it matters. This is the cleanest way to split the Daniels story into the durable part and the borrowed part. His closing-time efficiency stayed top-5 in 2025 even as the record cratered, so the skill is real; the 8-4 was the skill plus a run of coin flips landing right. Teams that confuse the two overpay for the record. Teams that separate them know 2024 was better evidence about the quarterback than about the win count.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: falls this steep usually bounce about half the way back. Call it 7 or more wins.
The 2026 starting point
| Measure | WAS 2025 |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-12 |
| Point differential | -95 (-5.6 per game) |
| Expected wins from points | 5.9 |
| Turnover margin | -10 (tied 30th) |
| One-score games | 2-5 |
Teams that dropped 6+ wins off a 10-win season, 1999-2023
| Cohort result | Value |
|---|---|
| Teams | 45 |
| Wins in the peak year (avg) | 11.8 |
| Wins in the collapse year (avg) | 4.9 |
| Wins the year after the collapse (avg) | 7.5 |
| Improved in that third year | 36 of 45 |
Since 1999, 45 teams have followed a 10-plus win season by losing at least six wins off it, almost exactly Washington's arc. In the year after the collapse those teams averaged 7.5 wins, and 36 of the 45 improved. Add the smaller tailwinds: a minus-10 turnover margin (tied 30th) is the kind that drifts back toward zero on its own, and a 2-5 close-game record has nowhere to go but up. The gradeable call: Washington wins 7 or more in 2026.
Why it matters. Collapse years understate teams the same way breakthrough years overstate them, and the cohort captures both halves of that arc in one shape. Note what the projection does not say: 7-and-change wins is a bounce to mediocrity, not a return to 2024. The gap between the bounce and contention is the actual roster work, starting with a defense that allowed the second-most points in the division.
Washington's offense made the single biggest one-year leap in the NFL, then gave most of it back.
TrendWAS offense EPA/play and NFL rank, by season (reg season)
| Season | Off EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -0.078 | 26th |
| 2023 | -0.106 | 27th |
| 2024 | +0.139 | 4th |
| 2025 | +0.006 | 18th |
Biggest offensive EPA/play improvement, 2023 to 2024 (all 32 teams)
| Rank | Team | 2023 | 2024 | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | -0.106 | +0.139 | +0.245 |
| 2 | NYJ | -0.252 | -0.013 | +0.238 |
| 3 | BAL | +0.066 | +0.218 | +0.152 |
| 4 | TB | -0.017 | +0.130 | +0.147 |
From 2023 to 2024 Washington's offense jumped from -0.106 to +0.139 EPA per play, a +0.245 swing that was the largest of any team in the league and dragged the unit from 27th to 4th in a single offseason. Then came the regression: back to +0.006 and 18th in 2025, surrendering more than half of the gain. The rookie-year spike was real, the encore was ordinary.
Why it matters. League-leading year-over-year jumps are almost always quarterback-driven, and they rarely hold, because the rest of the league adjusts and the schedule of unfamiliar looks ends. Washington's arc is the textbook version: a transformational rookie season followed by a market correction. The interesting question the 2025 dip raises is how much was the player settling and how much was defenses solving the QB-run-heavy scheme that made 2024 work.
The Daniels factor
In 2024 Washington's quarterback outran the entire NFL: most QB rush yards, most QB carries, and it still came through.
RareMost QB-rush yards, 2024 (regular season, all 32 teams ranked)
| Rank | Team | QB carries | QB rush yds | EPA/carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 154 | 999 | +0.474 |
| 2 | BAL | 130 | 912 | +0.135 |
| 3 | PHI | 140 | 668 | +0.370 |
| 4 | ARI | 78 | 581 | +0.147 |
| 5 | IND | 86 | 552 | +0.220 |
Washington's quarterbacks ran the ball 154 times for 999 yards in 2024, both NFL highs, more carries than Lamar Jackson's Baltimore and 87 more rushing yards than third-place Philadelphia. The shocking part is the efficiency: that volume came at +0.474 EPA per carry, more than triple Baltimore's rate at similar usage, with 63 rushing first downs. Most offenses that lean this hard on the QB run do it out of desperation. This one did it as a weapon.
Why it matters. Heavy QB-run volume usually drags efficiency down as defenses key on it, so the league leader in carries is rarely also near the top in EPA. Washington was both at once, which is the statistical signature of a designed, schemed run game built around a mobile rookie rather than broken-play scrambling. It is the single biggest reason a bottom-of-the-league 2023 offense became a top-five unit overnight.
Two Daniels run games: the scramble prints, the called keep pays a tax.
SplitJayden Daniels on the ground (regular season, kneels excluded)
| Season | Play | Carries | EPA/carry | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Scrambles | 72 | +0.722 | 577 |
| 2024 | Designed keeps | 66 | +0.265 | 327 |
| 2025 | Scrambles | 38 | +0.278 | 246 |
| 2025 | Designed keeps | 16 | -0.406 | 37 |
League baseline, 2025 (all QBs)
| Play | EPA/carry | Success |
|---|---|---|
| Scrambles | +0.479 | 61.5% |
| Designed keeps | -0.048 | 53.2% |
In the rookie year the improvised run was a superpower: 72 scrambles at +0.722 EPA per carry, half again the league's already-elite scramble value, for 577 yards. In 2025 both halves shrank. The scramble stayed profitable (+0.278) but the designed keep flipped to -0.406 per carry on just 16 tries, and the team's total quarterback rushing fell from 999 yards to 642. The gulf between the two kinds of run is the law of the position: the scramble picks its grass; the called keep has to beat a defense that guessed right.
Why it matters. The 2024 offense was built on a play that cannot actually be called: scrambles happen when coverage holds and a lane opens, so their volume falls when defenses stop dropping deep against you. The 2025 numbers show what an adjusted league looks like: fewer scramble chances, and called keeps that defenses now sit on. Rebuilding the offense around Daniels means finding value that does not depend on opponents forgetting who he is.
Washington is the slowest-starting, hardest-finishing offense in football: 24th in the 1st quarter, 1st in the 4th.
SplitWAS offense EPA/play by quarter, 2024-2025 (reg season), with NFL rank
| Quarter | WAS EPA/play | League avg | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | -0.042 | -0.002 | 24th |
| 2nd | +0.174 | +0.033 | 3rd |
| 3rd | -0.011 | +0.008 | 20th |
| 4th | +0.150 | -0.015 | 1st |
Best 4th-quarter offensive EPA/play, 2024-2025 (all 32 teams)
| Rank | Team | 4Q EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | +0.150 |
| 2 | BAL | +0.123 |
| 3 | BUF | +0.120 |
| 4 | GB | +0.087 |
| 5 | PHI | +0.086 |
Across both Jayden Daniels seasons the offense is below the league average to open games (-0.042 EPA, 24th in the 1st quarter) and then becomes the best closing offense in the sport (+0.150 EPA, 1st in the 4th quarter), ahead of Baltimore and Buffalo. The swing between its opening and closing quarter, roughly 0.19 EPA per play, is enormous. This is a team that plays its way into rhythm, not one that scripts an early haymaker.
Why it matters. The shape of an offense across quarters tells you how it is built: script-heavy teams front-load production, adjustment-heavy teams back-load it. Washington's profile (cold start, second-quarter surge, dominant fourth) points to halftime adjustments and a young quarterback who settles in, which is also why the team keeps so many games close enough to win late. It is a feature, but a nervy one, because it leaves points on the table early.
The rookie clutch leap: Washington went from 25th to 2nd in late-game offense in one year, and went 8-4 in one-score games.
ComparisonWAS offense EPA/play in the 4th quarter, by season, with NFL rank
| Season | 4Q EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -0.113 | 24th |
| 2023 | -0.136 | 25th |
| 2024 | +0.223 | 2nd |
| 2025 | +0.067 | 5th |
WAS record in one-score games (final margin <= 8), reg season
| Season | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2024 | 8-4 | 66.7% |
In 2023 Washington's fourth-quarter offense was a punchline (-0.136 EPA, 25th) and the team went 4-6 in one-score games. One draft pick later it had the second-best closing offense in the NFL (+0.223 EPA, a whisker behind Baltimore) and surged to 8-4 in one-score finishes. The clutch reputation built that rookie autumn was not a results mirage either, the underlying efficiency sat second in the league. And it did not fully vanish in 2025, the unit stayed 5th in the 4th quarter even as the rest of the offense cooled.
Why it matters. Late-game offense is where games are decided, and it is usually where young quarterbacks are worst, not best. Washington inverting that, 25th to 2nd in fourth-quarter EPA with the one-score record swinging seven games in the standings, is the clearest single measure of what the rookie changed. The fact that the closing-time strength held into 2025 (5th) while the overall offense regressed to 18th suggests the clutch trait is more durable than the supporting cast around it.
A defense with a leak
Washington's defense almost never takes the ball away: 31st in the NFL in interceptions over three years.
AnomalyFewest interceptions, 2023-2025 (all 32 defenses ranked)
| NFL rank | Team | INTs | Total takeaways |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 (tie) | TEN | 23 | 61 |
| 31 (tie) | WAS | 23 | 66 |
| 30 | NYJ | 24 | 78 |
| 29 | NE | 27 | 78 |
| 28 | ARI | 30 | 75 |
WAS interceptions and NFL rank, by season
| Season | INTs | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8 | 27th |
| 2024 | 7 | 26th |
| 2025 | 8 | 25th |
Across 2023-2025 Washington picked off just 23 passes, tied for 31st in the NFL, and forced only 66 total takeaways, 30th. This is not one down year dragging the average, the defense ranked 25th-or-worse in interceptions all three seasons (8, 7, 8). A unit that gives up the most deep touchdowns in football also generates almost no risk for the quarterback throwing them. Sit back, take the shot, the downside is nearly zero.
Why it matters. Takeaways are the great equalizer for a struggling defense; a single interception can erase a long opponent drive and flip field position and win probability. Washington has been denied that lifeline year after year, so every yard allowed actually counts on the scoreboard. Combined with the deep-ball leakage, it describes a back seven that neither prevents the big play nor punishes the risk.
The record books
2024 was the best Washington season in a quarter century, by two full games.
MilestoneMost wins in a season since 1999
| Season | Wins |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 |
| 1999 | 10 |
| 2005 | 10 |
| 2012 | 10 |
Between 1999 and 2023, Washington never won more than 10 games in a season, and reached that number only three times in 25 years. The 2024 team won 12, clearing the old ceiling by two full games in year one of a rookie quarterback, and added the franchise's only conference championship appearance of the era. Then it handed most of the gains back. The high-water mark still stands, and it is the one thing the 2025 collapse cannot erase.
Why it matters. Franchise context is what separates a great season from a franchise-altering one, and 2024 cleared a bar no Washington team had touched in a quarter century. It proved the ceiling of this roster core and this quarterback is real, which is exactly why the 2025 fall reads as a problem to fix rather than a mirage exposed. The bar for the next contender is now specific: 12 wins is what it looks like here.
Four playoff wins since 1999, and half of them came in one January.
MilestoneWashington's playoff trips since 1999
| Season | Result |
|---|---|
| 1999 | 1-1 (won a Wild Card game, lost the Divisional) |
| 2005 | 1-1 (won a Wild Card game, lost the Divisional) |
| 2007 | 0-1 |
| 2012 | 0-1 |
| 2015 | 0-1 |
| 2020 | 0-1 |
| 2024 | 2-1 (reached the conference title game) |
Seven playoff trips in this era produced exactly four wins, and the 2024 run supplied two of them in a single January, along with the only conference championship appearance of the span. Four of the seven trips ended in the first game. That is the base Washington is building from: one great winter in a quarter century, and it just happened.
Why it matters. A franchise's January history sets fan expectations more than any single season does, and Washington's was nearly empty for 25 years before 2024 filled half the trophy shelf in three weeks. The recency matters: the core that authored the era's only deep run is largely the one taking the field in 2026. The history says droughts here run long; the 2024 exception says this group already knows the way out.
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