Team
New York Jets
AFC East
The 17th-place blip shows the roster around the quarterback was never the limiting factor the way the offense's reputation suggests; competent quarterback play alone moved it 15 spots. The deeper problem is the dependency: a top-3 defense in 2022-2023 masked the offense's floor, and once that defense regressed in 2025 there was nothing left to hide behind. It is the clearest evidence that the Jets built one side of the ball and hoped the other would carry it.
The state of the Jets
One healthy Rodgers season lifted the Jets offense to 17th. The years on either side were 32nd and 29th.
TrendJets offense vs defense EPA rank, by season
| Season | Offense rank | Defense rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27th | 8th |
| 2023 | 32nd | 3rd |
| 2024 | 17th | 20th |
| 2025 | 29th | 31st |
In 2023, with Rodgers gone after four snaps, the Jets fielded the worst offense in the NFL (32nd) while the defense was 3rd-best. One healthy Rodgers year in 2024 yanked the offense up to 17th, the only respectable season in the bunch. Then in 2025 it fell back to 29th, and this time the defense collapsed with it (31st) instead of bailing it out. The whole era was a defense propping up an offense that briefly stood on its own and then couldn't again.
Why it matters. The 17th-place blip shows the roster around the quarterback was never the limiting factor the way the offense's reputation suggests; competent quarterback play alone moved it 15 spots. The deeper problem is the dependency: a top-3 defense in 2022-2023 masked the offense's floor, and once that defense regressed in 2025 there was nothing left to hide behind. It is the clearest evidence that the Jets built one side of the ball and hoped the other would carry it.
How the games get lost
The Jets offense is the worst first-quarter unit in football, then quietly fixes itself.
SplitWorst 1st-quarter offense EPA/play, 2023-2025 reg season
| Rank | Team | Q1 EPA/play | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | NYJ | -0.232 | 634 |
| 31 | CLE | -0.163 | 723 |
| 30 | NYG | -0.138 | 694 |
| 29 | CAR | -0.115 | 660 |
Jets offense EPA/play by quarter, NFL rank, 2023-2025
| Quarter | EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | -0.232 | 32nd |
| 2nd | -0.142 | 31st |
| 3rd | -0.140 | 29th |
| 4th | -0.049 | 16th |
Out of the gate the Jets are the single worst opening-quarter offense in the NFL at -0.232 EPA per play, a full step below 31st-place Cleveland. By the fourth quarter they have climbed to a respectable 16th. The script-it-up first 15 plays, the part every coordinator rehearses all week, is exactly where the Jets are at their worst, and they only loosen up once they are already chasing the game.
Why it matters. Opening-script struggles point at preparation and play-design rather than talent, because the first drives are the most scripted of the game. Falling behind early forces a one-dimensional, pass-to-catch-up plan that defenses tee off on, which is its own compounding problem. The fourth-quarter improvement is partly real and partly soft coverage from opponents sitting on a lead.
The Jets gave up 164 sacks in three years and generated only 117. Almost nobody protects worse.
ComparisonWorst pass-protection (sack rate allowed), 2023-2025 reg season
| Rank | Team | Sack % allowed | Sacks taken |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (worst) | NYG | 10.0% | 181 |
| 2 | TEN | 9.8% | 172 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8.8% | 164 |
| 4 | MIN | 8.6% | 156 |
| 5 | WAS | 8.5% | 152 |
The Jets were sacked on 8.8% of dropbacks, the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL, behind only the two Giants-Titans disasters. Over three seasons that is 164 sacks absorbed, and 22 of them shook the ball loose. Meanwhile the pass rush that is supposed to balance the ledger generated just 117 sacks of its own (25th in the league), a net of minus 47. A quarterback running for his life on one end while the rush stays bottom-third on the other is how an offense gets buried before the ball ever gets downfield.
Why it matters. Sack rate allowed is the cleanest proxy for offensive-line play and quarterback processing speed, and the Jets fail on both. Each sack is also a turnover long shot for the other side, the Jets fumbled on 22 of their 164, so the protection problem leaks directly into the giveaway column. That the defense couldn't even win the sack battle to compensate left the team with no edge anywhere along the line of scrimmage.
The Jets can't complete a deep ball, and they won't let you complete one either.
RareDeep-ball completion % (20+ air yards), 2023-2025 reg season
| Side | NYJ comp % | NFL rank | Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets offense (throwing) | 29.0% | tied 30th of 32 | 169 |
| Jets defense (allowing) | 29.7% | 1st of 32 | 182 |
Lowest deep-ball completion rates, both directions (2023-2025)
| Rank | Team | Comp % | Deep att |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worst offenses: 32 | KC | 27.1% | 192 |
| tied 30 | CLE | 29.0% | 200 |
| tied 30 | NYJ | 29.0% | 169 |
| Best defenses: 1 | NYJ | 29.7% | 182 |
| 2 | PHI | 29.9% | 224 |
| 3 | NE | 30.7% | 205 |
It is nearly the same number on both ends. The Jets connect on just 29.0% of their own deep balls, tied with Cleveland for next-to-last in the NFL (only Kansas City was worse), and allow only 29.7% to the other team, the lowest rate in the entire league. The secondary that swallows shots over the top is real; the offense that can't hit one is the same building's other half. Their deep passing produced a feeble +0.031 EPA per attempt while the defense held deep throws to +0.239 EPA allowed.
Why it matters. A deep-ball lockdown defense is a roster strength (length and recovery speed in the secondary), but an offense that can't push the ball downfield is a quarterback-and-protection problem. The symmetry is a coincidence of personnel, not scheme, and it tells you exactly where the Jets spent their talent and where they didn't. Defenses can crowd the Jets' short game because the over-the-top threat barely exists, and history says those unthrown, unhit deep balls are exactly where passing value lives.
The Jets defense gets off the field, it just never takes the ball away.
SplitJets defense, two opposite identities, 2023-2025 reg season
| Metric | Jets | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd-down stop rate | 61.5% | 9th of 32 |
| Takeaway rate / play | 2.42% | 25th of 32 |
| Interceptions (3 yrs) | 24 | 30th of 32 |
Fewest takeaways per play, 2023-2025 (defense)
| Rank | Team | Takeaway % | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 (fewest) | TEN | 1.98% | 23 |
| 31 | WAS | 2.03% | 23 |
| 25 | NYJ | 2.42% | 24 |
On 3rd down the Jets are genuinely good, stopping 61.5% of attempts, 9th in the league. But they almost never finish the job: a 2.42% takeaway rate ranks 25th, and their 24 interceptions over three years are 30th of 32. They make you punt without ever flipping the field. A defense that forces a stop but no turnover hands the ball right back to that 18-points-a-game offense, which is the worst possible recipient.
Why it matters. Stops and takeaways are different skills: the first is coverage and tackling discipline, the second is ball-hawking and strip attempts that the Jets' personnel simply don't produce. Turnovers are the cheapest points in football and the fastest way to rescue a punchless offense by shortening the field. The one mercy is that takeaway rates barely carry over from year to year, so a bounce toward the league average would hand the new staff free possessions no roster move had to buy.
The record books
Fifteen straight seasons out of the playoffs. No other team is within seven years of it.
MilestoneLongest active playoff-appearance droughts (through 2025)
| Team | Last playoff season | Seasons out |
|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 2010 | 15 |
| ATL | 2017 | 8 |
| IND | 2020 | 5 |
| NO | 2020 | 5 |
| ARI | 2021 | 4 |
The Jets last played a postseason game in the 2010 season, the AFC Championship run behind Mark Sanchez. Every other franchise in football has been to the playoffs since 2017 at the latest, leaving the Jets' 15-season drought seven full years longer than anyone else's. The stretch contains exactly one winning season, 10-6 in 2015, which itself missed the cut. Two generations of quarterbacks, coaches, and rebuild plans have now come and gone inside a single absence.
Why it matters. A drought this far clear of the field is no longer bad luck, it is an organizational data point: fifteen consecutive rosters, front offices, and schemes all landing short of a bar that seven-win wild-card teams occasionally stumble over. The nearest historical comfort is that droughts end mechanically, via the same bounce the forecast card quantifies, and no franchise's fans have a larger gap between how long it has felt and how quickly history says it could end.
Since 2001 the Jets are 11-41 against New England. The nightmare outlived Brady.
MilestoneJets vs Patriots, 2001-2025 (all games incl. playoffs)
| Era | Games | NYJ record | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001-2019 | 40 | 9-31 | -10.2 |
| 2020-2025 | 12 | 2-10 | -8.9 |
| Total | 52 | 11-41 | -9.9 |
Over a quarter century of shared divisional life, the Jets have beaten New England 11 times in 52 tries and been outscored by 9.9 points per meeting. The obvious explanation was Tom Brady, but the ledger barely noticed his exit: since 2020 the Jets are 2-10 against the Patriots at -8.9 a game, nearly the same beating from rebuilding New England teams that were losing to everyone else. With the Patriots back atop the division and in the Super Bowl again, the division's oldest one-way rivalry enters its next era exactly where it left off.
Why it matters. Twice a year, every year, this series has functioned as a two-game handicap on the Jets' season, and the post-Brady numbers strip away the comfortable excuse that it was one man's doing. A rivalry deficit this persistent across totally different rosters points at the structural gap the rest of this set documents: quarterback play, protection, and early-game coaching. It is also the most direct measuring stick the rebuild has: beat New England twice in a season, something last done in 2000, and the era has genuinely changed.
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