Team

Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC South

Defensive EPA rank rarely moves more than a handful of slots year to year; a 28-spot climb is a regime change, not a tweak. New coordinator, new scheme, and a healthy secondary turned the same franchise's weakest unit into its identity. It also reframes the 2025 turnaround: this was a defense-led season, not a Trevor Lawrence breakout.

FanIQ Research · August 30, 2026 · 9 facts, every one from the play-by-play

The 2025 season

The Jaguars' defense made the biggest one-year leap in football: from 31st to 3rd.

Rare

Largest year-over-year defensive EPA/play improvement, 2024 to 2025 (reg season)

Rank	Team	2024 (rank)	2025 (rank)	Swing
1	JAX	+0.129 (31st)	-0.105 (3rd)	+0.235
2	NE	+0.070 (29th)	-0.047 (11th)	+0.117
3	CLE	+0.017 (18th)	-0.096 (5th)	+0.113
4	LA	+0.044 (25th)	-0.061 (9th)	+0.105
5	SEA	-0.012 (11th)	-0.116 (2nd)	+0.104

In 2024 Jacksonville fielded the 31st-ranked defense in the NFL (+0.129 EPA per play allowed), second-worst in football. One year later it was 3rd (-0.105). That +0.235 swing is the single biggest year-over-year defensive improvement of any team, and it isn't close: it nearly doubles 2nd-place New England's jump. The 13-4 record everyone credits to the offense was actually built on a defense that went from one of the league's worst to one of its three best in a single offseason.

Why it matters. Defensive EPA rank rarely moves more than a handful of slots year to year; a 28-spot climb is a regime change, not a tweak. New coordinator, new scheme, and a healthy secondary turned the same franchise's weakest unit into its identity. It also reframes the 2025 turnaround: this was a defense-led season, not a Trevor Lawrence breakout.

The Jaguars went from 6 interceptions to 22 in one year, worst to best.

Trend

JAX defensive interceptions by season, with NFL rank

Season	Interceptions	NFL rank
2022	14	12th
2023	16	11th
2024	6	30th
2025	22	2nd

2025 interception leaders (reg season)

Rank	Team	INTs
1	CHI	23
2	JAX	22
3	HOU	19
3	LAC	19

In 2024 the Jaguars picked off just 6 passes, 30th in the NFL, basically the same secondary that couldn't take the ball away from anyone. In 2025 they grabbed 22, second only to Chicago. That +16 swing in a single season is the largest jump on the board, and it is the beating heart of the defensive turnaround: the picks alone explain why a unit that ranked 3rd in EPA falls to merely 7th once you remove takeaway plays. The hands changed; the identity changed.

Why it matters. Interceptions are the most volatile, highest-leverage defensive event, and they swing both records and reputations. A jump from 6 to 22 is too large to be luck alone; it reflects a coverage scheme that finally generated traffic at the catch point and a pass rush that forced bad throws. It also flags the risk: takeaway-driven defenses regress, and Jacksonville's 2025 ceiling rode on the ball finding their hands.

Strip out the takeaways and the NFL's 3rd-ranked defense is only 7th, and wildly streaky by quarter.

Split

2025 JAX defense: raw vs takeaway-adjusted EPA rank

Measure	EPA/play	NFL rank
All plays	-0.105	3rd
Non-takeaway plays only	+0.025	7th

2025 JAX defensive EPA/play allowed, by quarter

Quarter	EPA/play allowed	Read
Q1	+0.048	below average
Q2	-0.115	strong
Q3	-0.296	dominant
Q4	-0.092	good

Jacksonville's 2025 defense ranked 3rd in the NFL in raw EPA allowed (-0.105), but that number is propped up by a takeaway spree: on plays without an interception or fumble, the same defense allows +0.025 EPA and slips to 7th. It is also a defense of extremes by quarter. It is actually below average in the 1st quarter (+0.048), then turns into a wrecking ball, -0.296 EPA in the 3rd, one of the most lopsided third-quarter defenses in football. The unit doesn't smother you evenly; it bleeds early, then strangles after halftime.

Why it matters. Elite EPA rankings built on takeaways are the textbook regression trap, because interception and fumble rates bounce year to year far more than down-to-down efficiency. The quarter splits add the why: a defense that comes out flat and dominates after adjustments is a coaching-and-halftime story, but a slow start is a dangerous trait against fast-starting offenses in January.

What happens next

History puts 13-4 on a ledge: three in ten teams stay there. The margin says the floor is still high.

Jacksonville 2025 profile (reg season)

Measure	Value
Record	13-4
Point differential	+138
Expected wins from margin	12.2
Blowout record (9+ pts)	7-1
One-score record	6-3
Interceptions	22 (2nd in NFL)

Teams with 12+ wins since 1999: the next season

Teams	Avg win change	Reached 12 again
127	-3.17	39 of 127 (30.7%)

Since 1999, 127 teams have won 12 or more games, and they shed an average of 3.17 wins the following season; fewer than a third got back to 12. Jacksonville adds two regression flags of its own: a 22-interception spree that ranked 2nd in the NFL, and a 6-3 one-score record from a franchise that had spent eight years losing those games. The counterweight is real, though: +138 points and a 7-1 blowout record say the underlying team was nearly as good as the record. The plain expectation for 2026: fewer than 13 wins, but a comfortably winning season. A fall to mediocre would defy the margin; a repeat at 13 would defy the ledge.

Why it matters. This forecast is a collision between one of the healthiest 13-win profiles a team can post and the gravity that pulls at every 13-win team. The blowout record and margin argue most of the leap was real scheme and roster improvement; the interception total and the flipped close-game ledger argue two or three of the wins were borrowed. Averaging the two forces is how you land on very good but short of 13, and that is a claim next January can grade cleanly.

Myth test: discipline decides games. Jacksonville was the 4th-most-penalized team in football and won 13.

Most penalties committed, 2025 (reg season)

Rank	Team	Penalties	Record
1	DAL	133	7-9-1
2	TEN	129	3-14
3	NYG	128	4-13
4	JAX	127	13-4

Jaguars 2025 record by the penalty battle

Flag count vs opponent	Record
More flags than opponent	7-3
Fewer flags	5-1
Even	1-0

Every October there is a sermon about how the flags are killing this team. In 2025 Jacksonville committed 127 penalties, 4th-most in the NFL, sharing the top of the table with three teams that won 3, 4, and 7 games, and won 13 anyway. They went 7-3 in the ten games where they were flagged more than their opponent. League-wide, the team that wins the penalty battle wins only about 56% of the time (136 of 244 decided games in 2025), barely better than a coin flip. Compare turnovers, where the winner of the battle wins roughly three in four. Flags are irritating. Turnovers are fatal.

Why it matters. The practical priority is where a coaching staff spends its practice hours and its discipline capital. A team that treats its penalty count as the crisis is optimizing a stat that moves win probability barely past a coin flip, while the same energy aimed at the turnover battle attacks the stat that decides three games in four. Jacksonville's 2025 is the cleanest possible demonstration that a flag-heavy team can be an excellent one.

How this team plays

The Jaguars' offense falls off a cliff in the 4th quarter, the steepest fade in the NFL.

Anomaly

Biggest 3rd-to-4th-quarter offensive EPA drop, 2023-2025 (reg season)

Rank	Team	Q3 EPA	Q4 EPA	Drop
1	JAX	+0.041	-0.113	-0.154
2	CIN	+0.091	-0.045	-0.136
3	SF	+0.128	+0.003	-0.125
4	NO	-0.007	-0.106	-0.098
5	LA	+0.118	+0.022	-0.097

Through three quarters Jacksonville's offense is fine, even good in the third (+0.041 EPA per play). Then the 4th quarter arrives and it craters to -0.113, a -0.154 collapse that is the largest Q3-to-Q4 drop of any offense in the league. The end state is just as ugly: that -0.113 Q4 mark ranks 29th of 32, ahead of only Tennessee, Las Vegas and Cleveland. This is a team that builds a lead and then stops being able to move the ball when it matters most.

Why it matters. Fourth-quarter offense is where games are closed out, and Jacksonville's evaporates. A unit that produces in the third and disappears in the fourth points at conditioning, play-calling that turns conservative with a lead, or a quarterback who presses late. It is the driver behind the franchise's long history of blown leads and one-score losses.

Eight years of blown leads: the Jaguars have the NFL's 2nd-worst record in one-score games.

Comparison

Worst one-score (margin <= 8) records, 2018-2025 (reg season)

Rank	Team	Record	Win %
32	ARI	21-42-1	32.8%
31	JAX	23-42	35.4%
30	CIN	25-42-1	36.8%
29	CAR	26-44	37.1%
28	NYG	28-44-1	38.4%

Late-game offensive efficiency (competitive WP, Q4/final 5 min), 2023-2025

Rank	Team	Clutch EPA/play
1	PHI	+0.178
27	JAX	-0.069
32	CLE	-0.229

Since 2018 the Jaguars are 23-42 in one-score games, a 35.4% win rate that is 2nd-worst in the entire NFL, ahead of only Arizona. The cause is on tape and in the numbers: in competitive late-game situations their offense produces -0.069 EPA per play, 27th in the league. The most famous case is 2023, when Jacksonville started 8-3, lost 5 of its last 6, and missed the playoffs after leading the AFC South. They don't lose because they're outclassed; they lose because they can't finish. The 2025 season flipped the script at last: 6-3 in one-score games, the franchise's first winning close-game ledger of the window.

Why it matters. Point differential and talent say this should be a better team than its record; close-game futility is the gap. A bottom-three clutch offense turns winnable games into losses and is exactly what sank promising seasons like 2023. Until the late-game offense improves, every Jaguars year carries a built-in tax in the games decided by a single score.

The record books

Jacksonville is the NFL's London franchise: one in three London games is a Jaguars 'home' game.

Rare

Most London 'home' games hosted, 2018-2025 (reg season)

Team	London home games	Record there
JAX	6	3-3
LV	2	1-1
10 other teams	1 each	-

JAX offense, London 'home' vs Jacksonville home (2018-2025)

Site	Off EPA/play	Plays
London home	-0.023	377
Jacksonville home	-0.033	3,729

Of the 18 regular-season games staged in London from 2018-2025, Jacksonville was the designated home team for 6 of them, three times more than any other club. They surrendered a true home date in six of eight seasons (every year but 2020 and 2025) to play 4,000 miles from TIAA Bank Field. The strangest part: it barely affects them. The offense posts essentially the same EPA in London (-0.023) as in Jacksonville (-0.033), and the London record (3-3) is better than their actual home record over the span. And the commitment is doubling: in 2026 Jacksonville is scheduled as the London home team twice, in back-to-back weeks, hosting Philadelphia in week 5 and Houston in week 6, the first time any club has staged two London home games in one season.

Why it matters. No franchise has leaned into the international slate like Jacksonville, a small-market team trading home-field gates for global revenue and exposure. Conventional wisdom says a transatlantic 'home' game is a competitive tax, jet lag, a neutral crowd, a lost true home date. For the Jaguars the data says it is a wash on the field, which is exactly why they keep volunteering for it.

Thirteen wins is the franchise's best season since the 1999 team went 14-2.

Milestone

Most wins in a season, Jaguars since 1999 (reg season)

Season	Record
1999	14-2
2025	13-4
2005	12-4
2007	11-5
2017	10-6

For a quarter century the 1999 Jaguars stood alone: 14-2, a record no Jacksonville team since has approached. The 2025 group came closer than anyone, and the company in between tells you how rare the air is: the beloved 2017 team that reached the conference title game and lost it by four points won just 10 regular-season games. Between 2008 and 2024 the franchise never won more than 10; 2025 cleared that entire era by three.

Why it matters. Only two Jacksonville teams have ever played a 13-win pace, and they bookend the franchise's whole arc: the 1999 team at the end of its first golden window, and 2025 at what fans hope is the start of a second. The 2017 comparison is the sobering one, since that breakthrough collapsed within two seasons. Whether 2025 becomes an era or an outlier is precisely what the regression math elsewhere in this set will decide.

FanIQ answers any NFL stats question with receipts, on your phone.

Get FanIQ free Get it on Google Play