Team
Baltimore Ravens
AFC North
A record two games below its own point differential is the classic signature of close-game variance, not of a broken roster. The Ravens also reached 20 points in 14 of 17 games, the historical 70 percent win threshold, and went only 8-6 in those, which points the blame at late-game defense rather than the offense. Both of those gaps are the kind history closes on their own.
The 2025 season and what comes next
The margin says the 2025 Ravens were a nine-win team. The schedule said 8-9. History sides with the margin.
Baltimore 2025, regular season
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Record | 8-9 |
| Points for | 424 |
| Points against | 398 |
| Point differential | +26 |
| Expected wins from the margin | 9.2 |
Where the season actually split
| Slice | Record |
|---|---|
| Games decided by 9+ points | 6-4 |
| One-score games (1-8) | 2-5 |
| Games reaching 20 points | 8-6 |
| Games held under 20 | 0-3 |
Baltimore outscored its opponents by 26 points and still finished 8-9, one of only two teams in football (alongside Kansas City) to post a positive margin with a losing record in 2025. In games decided by more than one score the Ravens were 6-4. The season died in the coin flips: 2-5 in one-score games, including a 41-40 opener in Buffalo and a 26-24 week 18 loss in Pittsburgh. The plain expectation for 2026: the underlying team was a 9.2-win team, and close-game records reset. Baltimore finishing at .500 or better next season is the base case, not the hope.
Why it matters. A record two games below its own point differential is the classic signature of close-game variance, not of a broken roster. The Ravens also reached 20 points in 14 of 17 games, the historical 70 percent win threshold, and went only 8-6 in those, which points the blame at late-game defense rather than the offense. Both of those gaps are the kind history closes on their own.
The season snapped in half at the bye: 1-5 before it, 7-4 after.
TrendBaltimore 2025 in two acts (bye in week 7)
| Stretch | Record | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-6 | 1-5 | 144 | 194 |
| Weeks 8-18 | 7-4 | 280 | 204 |
Through six weeks Baltimore was 1-5, outscored by 50 points, with home losses to Detroit, Houston and the Rams. Out of the week 7 bye the same roster went 7-4 and outscored opponents by 76, with a 24-0 shutout in Cincinnati and a 41-24 win in Green Bay. The rebuilt season came down to week 18 in Pittsburgh, a 26-24 loss that ended it at 8-9. Two months of the best football in the conference could not make up for six weeks of the worst.
Why it matters. Six-game stretches routinely lie about a team, and 2025 Baltimore is the proof in both directions: the 1-5 team and the 7-4 team were the same roster with the same coaches. The recovery matters for 2026 because the second-half version, which outscored opponents by 76, is the larger and more recent sample of what this team is.
The Ravens have the NFL's biggest blowout-vs-clutch gap: 2nd when they pull away, 18th when it's close.
RareWin % by game margin, 2018-2025 (regular season)
| Split | BAL record | BAL win % | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blowouts (margin > 8) | 53-13 | 80.3% | 2nd |
| One-score (margin 1-8) | 33-34 | 49.3% | 18th |
Largest blowout-minus-one-score win % gap, 2018-2025
| Rank | Team | Blowout % | One-score % | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 80.3% | 49.3% | 31.0 |
| 2 | BUF | 79.7% | 54.0% | 25.7 |
| 3 | KC | 85.7% | 62.3% | 23.4 |
| 4 | SF | 64.5% | 47.4% | 17.1 |
| 5 | GB | 71.2% | 55.6% | 15.6 |
When the Ravens win comfortably, almost nobody does it better: 80.3%, 2nd in the NFL behind only Kansas City. When the game is within one score, they are a coin flip: 33-34 (49.3%), 18th. That 31.0-point gap is the single largest in the league, ahead of Buffalo and Kansas City. Baltimore is a buzzsaw with a lead and merely average in a knife fight.
Why it matters. Great teams are usually defined by how they handle close games; the Ravens are defined by how rarely the close games go their way. A roster this talented should be winning the nervy ones, not splitting them. The margin-dependence is why elite regular seasons have so often given way to one-and-done endings: in January, almost every game is a one-score game.
After a decade of brick-throwing, the Ravens suddenly have one of the NFL's best deep balls.
AnomalyBaltimore deep-ball completion % (20+ air yards) by year, NFL rank
| Season | Deep att | Comp % | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 76 | 28.9% | 30th |
| 2022 | 59 | 27.1% | 30th |
| 2023 | 58 | 31.0% | 24th |
| 2024 | 72 | 33.3% | 20th |
| 2025 | 47 | 44.7% | 5th |
Best deep-ball completion % in 2025 (min 25 deep att)
| Rank | Team | Comp % | Deep EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 52.8% | +0.987 |
| 2 | DET | 48.7% | +0.682 |
| 3 | NE | 48.6% | +0.953 |
| 4 | GB | 47.1% | +0.824 |
| 5 | BAL | 44.7% | +0.769 |
From 2018 through 2024 the Ravens completed just 30.6% of their deep balls, ranking 20th or worse in every one of those seven seasons (30th in 2018, 2021 and 2022). In 2025 the brick-throwers became snipers: 44.7%, 5th in the NFL, at +0.769 EPA per attempt. This is the offense most people still file under runs-first-and-chucks-it-deep-and-prays. The praying stopped working in the franchise's favor.
Why it matters. Baltimore's identity was built on volume deep shots that rarely connected, a high-variance call that defenses could live with. Turning the league's worst deep accuracy into a top-5 weapon changes the math entirely: safeties can no longer cheat the run, and the play-action shot becomes a real threat rather than a hopeful one. It is the single biggest year-over-year change in the Ravens' passing profile.
How the Ravens play
Run-first label, pass-first reality: the Ravens have a top-5 passing attack and a 2nd-half surge.
SplitRavens offense EPA/play, 2023-2025 (reg season)
| Cut | EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass plays | +0.133 | 5th |
| Run plays | +0.083 | 2nd |
| Run-play rate (51.0%) | n/a | 1st (most run-heavy) |
Offense EPA/play by quarter, 2023-2025
| Quarter | Off EPA | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 | +0.083 | 6th |
| Q2 | +0.119 | 5th |
| Q3 | +0.164 | 2nd |
| Q4 | +0.082 | 2nd |
Baltimore runs the ball more than any team in football (51.0% run rate, 1st), which is why it gets filed as a ground-and-pound outfit. But the dropback game is elite: +0.133 EPA per pass, 5th in the NFL. And the offense gets stronger as the game wears on, ranking 2nd in both the 3rd quarter (+0.164) and the 4th (+0.082). While the defense fades after halftime, the offense is just hitting its stride.
Why it matters. Treating Baltimore as a run-only team is a scouting error: defenses that load the box to stop the league's best rushing attack are getting carved by a top-5 passing offense. The second-half surge is the mirror image of the defense's second-half fade (see the defense card), the offense is carrying the team late, not the unit everyone credits. Both facts cut against the franchise's grind-it-out reputation.
Myth test: the Ravens win because they establish the run. Even in Baltimore, it is the other way around.
Baltimore run rate by score state, 2023-2025 (reg season)
| Game state | Plays | Run rate |
|---|---|---|
| Leading | 1,499 | 57.3% |
| Tied | 604 | 50.0% |
| Trailing | 956 | 41.7% |
Early downs, game in reach (Q1-Q3, WP 20-80%), 2023-2025
| Cut | Plays | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| BAL pass | 609 | +0.214 |
| BAL run | 673 | +0.054 |
| League pass | 21,193 | +0.066 |
| League run | 20,088 | -0.051 |
The best rushing team of its era is also the cleanest demonstration that the announcer's favorite line is backwards. When Baltimore leads, it runs on 57.3% of snaps; when it trails, 41.7%. The run count is a scoreboard readout, not a cause. And when the game is still in reach on early downs, even Baltimore's runs (+0.054 EPA per play) trail Baltimore's passes (+0.214) by a wide margin. The Ravens do not win because they ran 40 times. They ran 40 times because they were winning.
Why it matters. Establish-the-run is the most durable piece of football folklore, and Baltimore is its favorite exhibit because the run totals in wins look so impressive. The causality runs through the scoreboard: leading teams run to burn clock, so rushing volume follows winning. What actually builds the leads is efficiency, and even for this rushing attack, the early-down pass is the more valuable play by 0.16 EPA per snap.
The Ravens own both ends of the red zone: 2nd-best at scoring, 1st at stopping.
ComparisonRed-zone TD rate, offense and defense, 2023-2025 (reg season)
| Side | BAL TD % | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Offense (TD per RZ play) | 22.7% | 2nd |
| Defense (TD allowed per RZ play) | 15.4% | 1st |
Red-zone leaders, 2023-2025
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense TD % | BUF 22.9% | BAL 22.7% | DET 21.9% |
| Defense TD % allowed | BAL 15.4% | MIN 16.3% | DEN 16.8% |
Inside the 20, Baltimore plays both sides at an elite level. The offense scores a touchdown on 22.7% of its red-zone snaps, 2nd in the NFL (a hair behind Buffalo). The defense allows a touchdown on just 15.4% of opponent red-zone snaps, best in the league. Most teams are good at one end. Baltimore is the rare club ranked top-2 at finishing drives and dead-first at stopping them.
Why it matters. Red-zone efficiency is where talent and scheme compound: a few extra touchdowns scored and a few extra denied is the difference between a playoff bye and a wild-card slot. Baltimore's edge on both ends is a structural advantage that doesn't show up in yards-per-game tables. It is also the cleanest evidence that the early-game dominance is real, the issue is sustaining it, not generating it.
Baltimore owns the NFL's best first-half defense, then has the league's biggest second-half collapse.
AnomalyRavens defense EPA/play allowed by half, 2023-2025 (reg season)
| Phase | Def EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1st half (Q1-Q2) | -0.092 | 1st |
| 2nd half (Q3-Q4) | -0.024 | 17th |
| Competitive late (WP 20-80%, 4Q/last 5 min) | +0.092 | 27th |
Largest 1st-half to 2nd-half defensive decline, 2023-2025
| Rank | Team | 1st half | 2nd half | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | -0.092 | -0.024 | +0.067 |
| 2 | PHI | -0.060 | -0.021 | +0.039 |
| 3 | DET | -0.053 | -0.018 | +0.036 |
| 4 | MIN | -0.080 | -0.054 | +0.026 |
Out of the gate, no defense in football is better: the Ravens allow -0.092 EPA per play in the first half, 1st in the NFL. Then it leaks. They slide to 17th in the second half, the largest first-to-second-half drop-off of any defense (+0.067). And when it matters most, in competitive late-game situations, they actually allow positive EPA (+0.092), 27th of 32. The vaunted Ravens defense is a front-runner.
Why it matters. Reputation says Baltimore's defense closes; the numbers say it opens. A unit that smothers early but fades late is the natural partner to a team that wins blowouts but loses close games (see the leading card). Whether it's conditioning, in-game adjustments by opponents, or prevent-style soft coverage with a lead, the late-game softness is exactly where playoff games are decided.
On 4th down, the Ravens convert. The teams that go for it most just keep missing.
Comparison4th-down go-for-it conversion vs volume, 2018-2025 (reg season)
| Team | Attempts | Att rank | Conv % | Conv rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 136 | 30th | 67.6% | 1st |
| BAL | 165 | 19th | 60.0% | 2nd |
| CAR | 242 | 1st | 52.5% | 21st |
| NYG | 237 | 3rd | 51.1% | 25th |
| CLE | 238 | 2nd | 47.9% | 31st |
Baltimore converts 60.0% of its 4th-down tries, 2nd-best in the NFL behind only Kansas City, on a middle-of-the-pack 165 attempts (19th). Compare that to the volume leaders: Carolina (242 attempts, most in the league) converts just 52.5% (21st), and Cleveland's 238 tries convert at 47.9%, 31st. The teams that go for it the most are some of the worst at it. The Ravens go often enough, and actually convert.
Why it matters. Fourth-down aggression is only an edge if you make them; otherwise it's just handing opponents short fields. Baltimore pairs genuine willingness to go (top-20 volume) with near-best conversion, the combination that actually adds expected points. The desperation teams stacking attempts at the bottom of the conversion table show how easily the analytics-era go-for-it trend curdles into giving the ball away.
The record books
The quarterback rushing record book is mostly a Lamar Jackson anthology.
MilestoneMost QB rushing yards in a season since 1999 (reg season)
| Rank | Player | Season | Rush yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | 2019 | 1,206 |
| 2 | Justin Fields | 2022 | 1,143 |
| 3 | Michael Vick | 2006 | 1,039 |
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | 2020 | 1,005 |
| 5 | Lamar Jackson | 2024 | 915 |
The single-season quarterback rushing record since 1999 belongs to Lamar Jackson: 1,206 yards in 2019, the year of his unanimous MVP. He also holds two more of the top five (1,005 in 2020 and 915 in 2024), and his 821 in 2023 sits 9th. Only Justin Fields and Michael Vick have reached that range, once each. Nobody has revisited it the way Jackson does roughly every other autumn.
Why it matters. Plenty of quarterbacks have had one great rushing season; the record book's top ten is usually a list of one-offs. Jackson holding three of the top five (and a fourth entry in the top ten) shows this is a sustained mode of offense, not a peak year. It is the statistical core of why Baltimore's run-heavy identity works at all: the defense must account for a rusher at the one position it cannot key on.
The three biggest team rushing seasons of the last quarter century all belong to Baltimore.
MilestoneMost team rushing yards in a season since 1999 (reg season)
| Rank | Team | Season | Rush yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 2019 | 3,296 |
| 2 | BAL | 2024 | 3,189 |
| 3 | BAL | 2020 | 3,071 |
| 4 | PHI | 2024 | 3,048 |
| 5 | CHI | 2022 | 3,014 |
The top of the team rushing leaderboard since 1999 reads Baltimore, Baltimore, Baltimore: 3,296 yards in 2019 (an NFL record, set in a 16-game season), 3,189 in 2024 with Derrick Henry, and 3,071 in 2020. No other franchise appears until Philadelphia's 2024 at #4. Two different eras of the Lamar Jackson offense, one with Mark Ingram and one with Henry, both out-rushed everything the rest of the league has produced this century.
Why it matters. One monster rushing season can be a scheme catching the league off guard; three of the top three is an organizational identity. The 2019 team did it before defenses had an answer for the Jackson option game, and the 2024 team did it after five years of film, which is the stronger claim: the ground game kept its edge even once everyone knew it was coming.
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