Player

Marvin Mims Jr.

A WR going 1 → 6 → 1 in receiving TDs on roughly flat target volume is a red flag for role definition: the 2024 spike was concentrated in a short window, not a sustained ascent. Mims is still a downfield specialist on a team that distributes through Sutton and the run game.

FanIQ Research · May 10, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

3-year career: 1 TD as a rookie, 6 TDs in 2024, back to 1 receiving TD in 2025 as the WR2 role contracted.

Trend

Mims regular-season production by year

Year	G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Rec TDs
2023 (rookie)	16	33	22	377	1
2024	17	52	39	503	6
2025	15	51	37	322	1

Receiving yards by year (REG)

Season	Yards
2023	377
2024	503
2025	322

Why it matters. A WR going 1 → 6 → 1 in receiving TDs on roughly flat target volume is a red flag for role definition: the 2024 spike was concentrated in a short window, not a sustained ascent. Mims is still a downfield specialist on a team that distributes through Sutton and the run game.

Career regular-season line: 98 catches, 1,202 yards, 8 TDs across 48 games — a WR3 stat sheet.

Split

Career regular-season totals through 2025

Stat	Total
Games	48
Receptions	98
Receiving Yards	1,202
Receiving TDs	8
Y/R	12.27
Y/G	25.0

Why it matters. Career rate stats anchor expectations. 25 yards per game is rotational production, not a featured role — useful context when assessing fantasy or contract trajectory. The career YPR is also a corrective to the assumption that all deep-threat WRs post elite YPR.

Mims had 0 receiving TDs through 10 games of 2024, then 6 TDs in the next 7 games.

Anomaly

Mims 2024 first half vs second half (REG)

Span	G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Rec TDs
Wks 1-10	10	19	11	69	0
Wks 11-18	7	33	28	434	6

Why it matters. This is the single most informative pattern in Mims's career: his 'breakout 2024' was really a 7-game stretch, not a 17-game body of work. The 2025 regression to 1 receiving TD on similar volume looks less like a fluke and more like reversion to the season-long mean.

As a rookie, Mims averaged 17.1 yards per catch on a 15.1 aDOT — top-3 deepest aDOT among the entire 2023 WR draft class.

Rare

2023 rookie WR draft class — aDOT and YPR (REG, min 25 targets)

Player	Tgt	aDOT	YPR
Jalin Hyatt	40	21.02	16.22
Tre Tucker	34	18.35	17.42
Marvin Mims Jr.	33	15.06	17.14
Tank Dell	75	14.27	15.09
Quentin Johnston	67	12.85	11.34
Jordan Addison	108	12.47	13.01
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	93	6.12	9.97
Puka Nacua	160	9.08	14.15

Why it matters. aDOT (air yards per target) reveals how a WR is being USED, separate from how productive he was. A 15+ aDOT in 2023 placed Mims with Jalin Hyatt and Tre Tucker — burners, not possession receivers. Understanding this role explains why his catch rate has stayed modest and why role contraction hits him harder than it would a slot receiver.

Two playoff appearances in three seasons — including a starting role in DEN's 2025 run to the AFC Championship.

Split

Mims postseason games

Year	Round	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TDs
2024	WC (L)	BUF	4	2	12	0
2025	DIV (W)	BUF	8	8	93	1
2025	CON (L)	NE	6	4	62	0

Why it matters. Playoff usage tells you what a coach actually trusts. Mims's target share climbed from 19.0% in the DIV round to 22.2% in the CON — the highest single-game target share of his entire career. The role is real when the pressure rises.

Mims is a perfect 16-for-16 on receptions in his only two 8-target games — both blew up for 90+ yards.

Rare

Mims career games with 8+ targets

Date	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TDs
2024 Wk 17	CIN	8	8	103	2
2025 DIV	BUF	8	8	93	1

Why it matters. This is the case for opportunity, not talent regression. Mims's career sample of high-volume games is tiny (n=2), but in both he was the most efficient pass-catcher on the field. The 2025 1-TD season may reflect a target ceiling more than a ceiling on what he can do with targets when given them.

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