Player
Bailey Zappe
QB
A negative TD-INT balance is a reliable marker of a QB who creates negative plays faster than he creates scoring plays — it explains why teams cycle through Zappe as an emergency option rather than a development asset.
More career INTs than TDs — 14 picks vs 12 scores on 335 attempts. Only 38% of backup QBs (200-600 att, 2018+) have a negative TD-INT balance.
AnomalyBackup QB TD vs INT balance (200-600 att, 2018-2025)
| QB | TDs | INTs | TD-INT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 12 | 14 | -2 |
| Sam Howell | 22 | 23 | -1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 16 | 15 | +1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 16 | 13 | +3 |
| Malik Willis | 5 | 3 | +2 |
Why it matters. A negative TD-INT balance is a reliable marker of a QB who creates negative plays faster than he creates scoring plays — it explains why teams cycle through Zappe as an emergency option rather than a development asset.
At Western Kentucky in 2021, he threw 62 TDs — breaking the FBS single-season record held by Joe Burrow.
RareFBS single-season passing TD record
| QB | Year | TDs |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 2021 | 62 |
| Joe Burrow | 2019 | 60 |
| Colt Brennan | 2006 | 58 |
| B.J. Symons | 2003 | 52 |
Why it matters. Zappe is the reason his NFL career even happened: the FBS TD record made him draftable despite a mid-major résumé, yet his NFL output (12 TDs in 3 seasons) shows how little college volume predicts pro production.
2023 hidden split: Wks 14-16 he went 6 TD / 2 INT (72.8% comp) — then Wks 17-18 collapsed to 0 TD / 5 INT at 50% comp.
SplitZappe 2023 hot-then-cold split
| Period | Wks | G | Yds | TDs | INTs | Comp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot stretch | 14-16 | 3 | 676 | 6 | 2 | 72.8% |
| Final collapse | 17-18 | 2 | 297 | 0 | 5 | 50.0% |
Why it matters. The Wks 14-16 hot patch is why the Patriots kept him all of 2023, but the brutal final two weeks are why they cut him in 2024 — the variance is the story.
Among 2022 draft-class QBs with NFL starts, Zappe has the lowest career passing yards (2,223) — but the only one with a negative TD/INT ratio (0.86).
Comparison2022 draft class QBs: career regular-season stats
| QB | Yds | TDs | INTs | TD/INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 4,921 | 16 | 15 | 1.07 |
| Sam Howell | 4,139 | 22 | 23 | 0.96 |
| Desmond Ridder | 3,974 | 16 | 13 | 1.23 |
| Malik Willis | 1,233 | 5 | 3 | 1.67 |
| Bailey Zappe | 2,223 | 12 | 14 | 0.86 |
Why it matters. The 2022 class context makes plain why Zappe faded: even among peers who also couldn't hold starting jobs, he stood out as the most turnover-prone on a per-play basis.
His Week 6 2022 game (24/34, 309 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT vs CLE) remains his best NFL performance — and NE won 38-15. He never came close again.
AnomalyZappe's top 5 single-game passing yardage totals
| Season | Wk | Opp | Cmp/Att | Yds | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | @ CLE | 24/34 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
| 2023 | 16 | vs DEN | 25/33 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
| 2023 | 14 | @ PIT | 19/28 | 240 | 3 | 1 |
| 2023 | 17 | @ BUF | 16/26 | 209 | 0 | 3 |
| 2022 | 5 | vs DET | 17/21 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
Why it matters. A single elite game in Week 6 of his rookie year is what kept 'Zappe Fever' alive for two more seasons — it was the exception that proved the rule of a backup who could flash but never sustain.
His career W-L as a starter: 4 wins, 8 losses. Every win came when he posted a positive TD/INT game; every 0-TD game ended in a loss.
TrendZappe starts: W-L by TD-INT performance
| Result | Games | Avg TDs | Avg INTs | Avg Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win (4 starts) | 4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 248 |
| Loss (8 starts) | 8 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 141 |
Why it matters. The win-loss interception split reveals exactly how fragile his value is: when he avoids turnovers he can steal a game, but his default mode is the turnover that kills the drive.
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