Player
Trey Lance
QB
Attempt volume is the baseline for every QB metric — yards, TDs, INTs, passer rating all require opportunities. Lance's historic reps deficit means he has the smallest evaluable sample of any highly-drafted modern QB, making him simultaneously the most expensive unknown in recent draft history.
Among all top-3 QB picks since 2005 tracked in the DB, Lance's 200 career pass attempts through Year 5 is the fewest — by 3.4x. The next closest is JaMarcus Russell at 680.
RareTop-3 QB picks — 5-year pass attempts (fewest, since 2005)
| QB | Draft Pick | 5-yr Attempts |
|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 3rd, 2021 | 200 |
| JaMarcus Russell | 1st, 2007 | 680 |
| Zach Wilson | 2nd, 2021 | 1,004 |
| Alex Smith | 1st, 2005 | 1,173 |
| Vince Young | 3rd, 2006 | 1,189 |
Why it matters. Attempt volume is the baseline for every QB metric — yards, TDs, INTs, passer rating all require opportunities. Lance's historic reps deficit means he has the smallest evaluable sample of any highly-drafted modern QB, making him simultaneously the most expensive unknown in recent draft history.
SF traded THREE first-round picks to draft him in 2021 — then traded HIM for a 4th-round pick in 2023.
AnomalyTrey Lance draft capital — in vs out
| Direction | Picks |
|---|---|
| SF gave up to draft him | 2021 1st, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, 2022 3rd |
| SF traded him for | 2024 4th-round pick |
Why it matters. Draft capital is the scarcest currency in the NFL. Surrendering three first-rounders for a player who never stuck as a starter — then recouping only a 4th — represents a net loss of premium roster-building assets that set the franchise back years.
Lance spent the entire 2023 season on Dallas's roster — listed as inactive every single week — and threw zero passes. A full season of invisible.
AnomalyLance roster status by season
| Season | Team | Status | Pass Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | SF | Active / Starting | 71 |
| 2022 (Wks 1-2 only) | SF | Started, then IR | 31 |
| 2023 (full year) | DAL | INA every week | 0 |
| 2024 | DAL | INA then active | 41 |
| 2025 | LAC | Active (backup) | 57 |
Why it matters. An INA-all-year season for a former #3 overall pick illustrates how fast the developmental window closes. Teams keep high draft picks on rosters as insurance, but a full year of inactivity is effectively a career year erased — the opportunity cost is enormous for both player and team.
He's the only top-3 NFL Draft QB of the last 25 years to throw fewer than 250 career passes through year 5.
RareTop-3 QB picks since 2000 — 5-year pass attempts (fewest)
| QB | Pick | 5-yr att |
|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 3, 2021 | 200 |
| JaMarcus Russell | 1, 2007 | 680 (career) |
| Zach Wilson | 2, 2021 | 1,004 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2, 2012 | ~1,210 |
| Blake Bortles | 3, 2014 | ~2,632 |
Why it matters. Career attempt count is the denominator for every QB efficiency stat. A top-3 pick with 200 attempts in 5 years has essentially no evaluable body of work — the rarest possible outcome for a franchise-level investment, and the reason Lance's potential remains genuinely contested.
In his 4 starts with 15+ attempts, Lance averaged 8.0 YPA — right alongside the 2021 league's elite QBs.
SplitLance starts with 15+ pass attempts — per-game efficiency
| Game | Att | Yds | TDs/INTs | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Wk 4 vs SEA | 18 | 157 | 2 TD / 0 INT | 8.7 |
| 2021 Wk 5 vs ARI | 29 | 192 | 0 TD / 1 INT | 6.6 |
| 2021 Wk 17 vs HOU | 23 | 249 | 2 TD / 1 INT | 10.8 |
| 2022 Wk 1 vs CHI | 28 | 164 | 0 TD / 1 INT | 5.9 |
| 4-game average | 24.5 | 190.5 | 1.0 TD / 0.75 INT | 8.0 |
Why it matters. YPA strips out the noise of conservative short-passing schemes and garbage-time volume. Lance's 8.0 YPA in meaningful starts is a real signal that his arm talent was legitimate — the question of 'what if' is grounded in actual production, not projection.
Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant, pick #262) was drafted ONE year after Lance — and has thrown 9x as many regular-season passing yards.
ComparisonSF QB picks — regular-season production through 2025
| QB | Pick | Reg-Season Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 3 (2021) | 1,289 | 5 |
| Brock Purdy | 262 (2022) | 11,685 | 84 |
Why it matters. The Lance-Purdy divergence on the same roster is the starkest draft-slot-vs-outcome case of the 2020s: the player who cost nothing outproduced the player who cost three first-round picks by a 9-to-1 margin in regular-season yards.
FanIQ answers any NFL stats question with receipts, on your phone.
Get FanIQ freeGet it on Google Play