Player
CeeDee Lamb
WR · DAL Cowboys
Touchdowns are the noisiest component of a receiver's fantasy line because they turn on a handful of plays inside the 20, and Lamb's yardage tells you the underlying role was intact all season. A player who gains 1,000 yards while scoring three times has produced almost all of the hard part and almost none of the easy part, which is the profile most likely to look completely different next year without anything actually changing.
The best per-game Cowboy in 25 years
Sixteen receivers since 1999 have gained 1,000 yards in 13 games or fewer. His three touchdowns are the fewest any of them scored, by two.
Anomaly1,000+ receiving yards in 13 games or fewer, since 1999
| Receiver | Season | Games | Yards | Yards per game | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2014 | 12 | 1,305 | 108.8 | 12 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2023 | 10 | 1,074 | 107.4 | 5 |
| Keenan Allen | 2023 | 13 | 1,243 | 95.6 | 7 |
| Andre Johnson | 2010 | 13 | 1,216 | 93.5 | 8 |
| Mike Evans | 2019 | 13 | 1,157 | 89.0 | 8 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2022 | 12 | 1,046 | 87.2 | 9 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2008 | 12 | 1,038 | 86.5 | 11 |
| Nico Collins | 2024 | 12 | 1,006 | 83.8 | 7 |
| Calvin Johnson | 2014 | 13 | 1,077 | 82.8 | 8 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2025 | 13 | 1,077 | 82.8 | 3 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2010 | 13 | 1,052 | 80.9 | 11 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2015 | 13 | 1,047 | 80.5 | 9 |
Lamb's touchdowns per catch, by season
| Season | Catches | TDs | TDs per catch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 74 | 5 | 6.8% |
| 2021 | 79 | 6 | 7.6% |
| 2022 | 107 | 9 | 8.4% |
| 2023 | 135 | 12 | 8.9% |
| 2024 | 101 | 6 | 5.9% |
| 2025 | 75 | 3 | 4.0% |
Calvin Johnson posted exactly the same yardage total in exactly the same number of games in 2014 and scored eight times. Lamb scored three. His career rate is 7.2 touchdowns per hundred catches; 2025 came in at 4.0, the lowest full season of his career by nearly two points.
Why it matters. Touchdowns are the noisiest component of a receiver's fantasy line because they turn on a handful of plays inside the 20, and Lamb's yardage tells you the underlying role was intact all season. A player who gains 1,000 yards while scoring three times has produced almost all of the hard part and almost none of the easy part, which is the profile most likely to look completely different next year without anything actually changing.
His average target travelled 7.83 yards in 2024 and 11.99 in 2025. Dallas turned its possession receiver into a downfield one in a single offseason.
TrendLamb's average target depth by season (regular season)
| Season | Targets | Average air yards | Yards after catch per reception |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 111 | 9.29 | 4.20 |
| 2021 | 121 | 10.28 | 5.58 |
| 2022 | 156 | 10.03 | 4.62 |
| 2023 | 182 | 9.51 | 5.04 |
| 2024 | 154 | 7.83 | 5.32 |
| 2025 | 117 | 11.99 | 4.31 |
What moved with it
| Season | Air yards | Receiving yards | Air yards to receiving yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1,722 | 1,749 | 1.02 |
| 2024 | 1,190 | 1,194 | 1.00 |
| 2025 | 1,403 | 1,077 | 0.77 |
A jump of 4.16 air yards per target is the largest single-year move of his career and it went in the opposite direction to the one before it. The consequence is visible in the last table: in 2023 and 2024 he turned every air yard into a receiving yard; in 2025 he turned every air yard into 77 hundredths of one, because deeper targets are caught less often.
Why it matters. Target depth is a description of the route assignment, not of the receiver, and this size of move usually means a scheme change rather than a skill change. Deeper targets buy a higher ceiling per catch and a lower catch rate, and in PPR that trade is close to neutral in yardage terms but slightly negative in receptions. The practical read for 2026 is that his fantasy floor now depends more on how often the deep ball connects than it did in either of the two seasons before.
Thirteen games, three touchdowns
George Pickens saw more targets in 2025. Per game it was never close: Lamb 9.0, Pickens 8.1.
ComparisonDallas pass catchers, 2025 regular season
| Player | Games | Targets | Targets per game | Yards | Yards per game | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 17 | 137 | 8.06 | 1,429 | 84.1 | 9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 13 | 117 | 9.00 | 1,077 | 82.8 | 3 |
| Jake Ferguson | 17 | 102 | 6.00 | 600 | 35.3 | 8 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 15 | 56 | 3.73 | 475 | 31.7 | 4 |
| Javonte Williams | 16 | 51 | 3.19 | 137 | 8.6 | 2 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 15 | 38 | 2.53 | 396 | 26.4 | 2 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 12 | 34 | 2.83 | 203 | 16.9 | 1 |
Lamb missed weeks 3 through 6 and was used for a single snap in week 18. Across the 13 games he actually played he was targeted nine times a game, and Dallas produced two of the five highest per-game receiving totals in football: Pickens fourth at 84.1 yards, Lamb fifth at 82.8.
Why it matters. Total-target leaderboards reward availability, which is why the raw 137-to-117 gap says less than it appears to. Per game the hierarchy did not move, and the two receivers produced within one and a half yards a game of each other. That matters for 2026 pricing because a manager reading only season totals will conclude Dallas has a new number one; the per-game view says it has two.
MYTH TEST: he piled up 326 air yards he never turned into receiving yards, so the yards are owed back. History says a gap like that is a symptom, not an IOU.
Air yards versus receiving yards, Lamb by season
| Season | Targets | Air yards | Receiving yards | Unrealized gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 111 | 1,031 | 935 | +96 |
| 2021 | 120 | 1,233 | 1,102 | +131 |
| 2022 | 156 | 1,565 | 1,359 | +206 |
| 2023 | 181 | 1,722 | 1,749 | -27 |
| 2024 | 152 | 1,190 | 1,194 | -4 |
| 2025 | 117 | 1,403 | 1,077 | +326 |
Largest 2025 unrealized air yards, receivers with 100+ targets
| Receiver | Team | Targets | Air yards | Receiving yards | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | 106 | 1,288 | 602 | 686 |
| Chris Olave | NO | 156 | 1,841 | 1,163 | 678 |
| Davante Adams | LA | 114 | 1,444 | 789 | 655 |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | 127 | 1,572 | 938 | 634 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 124 | 1,542 | 1,017 | 525 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 117 | 1,403 | 1,077 | 326 |
The buy-low theory reads a big unrealized gap as production waiting to arrive. Measured across every receiver with 25-plus targets since 2009, the gap has predicted slightly worse rest-of-season points, not better, and it has done so in 15 of 17 seasons. Lamb's 326 is real but it is also modest by 2025 standards: 13 receivers with 100 or more targets had a larger one, six of them by more than 500 yards.
Why it matters. The reason the theory fails is that unrealized air yards mostly measure how often a receiver is thrown a ball he was never going to catch, which is a property of the route assignment and the coverage rather than of bad luck. Lamb's gap opened in the same season his average target depth jumped four yards, which is the expected mechanical consequence rather than an anomaly. The correct bullish argument for 2026 is the touchdown rate, covered elsewhere in this set, not the air yards.
The case for pick eleven
One of only three 400-point PPR receiver seasons since 2021 belongs to him, and it is still the high-water mark of his career.
RareCeeDee Lamb season by season (regular season)
| Season | Games | Targets | Catches | Yards | TDs | PPR | WR finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 16 | 111 | 74 | 935 | 5 | 217.7 | 22nd |
| 2021 | 16 | 120 | 79 | 1,102 | 6 | 232.8 | 19th |
| 2022 | 17 | 156 | 107 | 1,359 | 9 | 301.6 | 5th |
| 2023 | 17 | 181 | 135 | 1,749 | 12 | 403.2 | 1st |
| 2024 | 15 | 152 | 101 | 1,194 | 6 | 263.4 | 8th |
| 2025 | 13 | 117 | 75 | 1,077 | 3 | 200.9 | 22nd |
His 2023 line, 181 targets and 135 catches for 1,749 yards, produced 403.2 PPR points. Only Cooper Kupp in 2021 at 439.5 and Ja'Marr Chase in 2024 at 403.0 have also cleared 400 since 2021. The 2025 season that followed the 2024 dip came in at 200.9, but on a per-game basis the two seasons are 17.56 and 15.45, a gap of two points a week rather than a collapse.
Why it matters. A 400-point season is the outcome a first-round receiver pick is chasing, and Lamb is one of only three receivers to produce one in the last five years. That ceiling is the case for taking him around pick 11 in 2026. The counterweight is in the same table: he has finished 22nd twice, most recently last year, and both of those seasons ended with fewer than 16 games played.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: 23 receivers have followed a 1,000-yard season with three or fewer scores. Eighteen of them scored more the next year.
Receivers with 1,000+ yards and 3 or fewer TDs, and the season after
| Result the next season | Cases | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Scored more touchdowns | 18 | 78% |
| Reached 6 or more | 7 | 30% |
| Scored the same or fewer | 5 | 22% |
| Average touchdowns before | 2.4 | - |
| Average touchdowns after | 4.8 | - |
The largest rebounds
| Receiver | Season | Yards | TDs | Next season | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 2015 | 1,206 | 3 | 2016 | 1,321 | 12 |
| Julio Jones | 2017 | 1,444 | 3 | 2018 | 1,677 | 8 |
| Garrett Wilson | 2023 | 1,042 | 3 | 2024 | 1,104 | 7 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2010 | 1,014 | 3 | 2011 | 1,214 | 6 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2001 | 1,266 | 1 | 2002 | 1,088 | 5 |
| Robert Woods | 2019 | 1,134 | 2 | 2020 | 936 | 6 |
The average went from 2.4 touchdowns to 4.8, a doubling, and only five of the 23 stayed flat or fell. Lamb's own career rate would put him near nine touchdowns on a 125-catch season. The claim to grade in January 2027: Lamb scores more than three receiving touchdowns in 2026, and finishes inside the top 12 at his position if he plays 15 or more games.
Why it matters. This is deliberately the narrowest forecast in the set, because it isolates the one part of his 2025 that was clearly out of line with everything else he did. The yardage, the target rate and the per-game finish all said WR1; only the end zone disagreed. Touchdown counts on that few events regress hard toward a player's own baseline, and his baseline is 7.2 scores per hundred catches over six seasons.
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