Player
Daniel Jones
QB · IND Colts
Quarterback outcomes are usually settled by year four; Jones is the rarer case where the answer changed in year seven. The mechanism matters for 2026: what improved in Indianapolis (completion rate, sack avoidance, touchdown rate) are the parts a supporting cast most directly controls, which cuts both ways: it validates the fit, and it warns that the fit, not just the player, is carrying the number.
The Indianapolis revival
Seven seasons, one benching, one fresh start: the Colts got the best version of Daniel Jones that has ever existed.
TrendJones year by year (regular season)
| Season | Team | Games | Pass yds | TD-INT | PPR/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | NYG | 13 | 3,027 | 24-12 | 16.5 |
| 2021 | NYG | 11 | 2,428 | 10-7 | 15.2 |
| 2022 | NYG | 16 | 3,205 | 15-5 | 18.1 |
| 2023 | NYG | 6 | 909 | 2-6 | 9.5 |
| 2024 | NYG | 10 | 2,070 | 8-7 | 13.5 |
| 2025 | IND | 13 | 3,101 | 19-8 | 17.4 |
The trajectory in New York never resolved: a promising rookie year, a 2022 playoff run, then a 2023 collapse and a 2024 benching. Indianapolis got something none of those seasons showed: 3,101 yards in only 13 games (238.5 a game, his career high), 19 touchdown passes, and a 68.0% completion rate, all while leading the Colts to their best start in a decade and a half.
Why it matters. Quarterback outcomes are usually settled by year four; Jones is the rarer case where the answer changed in year seven. The mechanism matters for 2026: what improved in Indianapolis (completion rate, sack avoidance, touchdown rate) are the parts a supporting cast most directly controls, which cuts both ways: it validates the fit, and it warns that the fit, not just the player, is carrying the number.
Same QB, new math: his touchdown rate jumped 59% in Indianapolis while the interception rate did not move.
SplitJones career rates, Giants vs Colts (regular season)
| Measure | NYG (2019-2024) | IND (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Attempts | 2,241 | 384 |
| TD rate | 3.12% | 4.95% |
| INT rate | 2.10% | 2.08% |
| Sack rate | 8.49% | 5.42% |
The knock on Jones in New York was never turnovers, it was that nothing good happened either: a 3.12% touchdown rate across six seasons. In Indianapolis the touchdown rate leapt to 4.95%, a 59% jump, while the interception rate stayed frozen at 2.1%. And the sack rate, the stat that defined his Giants tenure, fell from 8.49% to 5.42%. Better weapons and a better line did not make him reckless. They made the same careful quarterback productive.
Why it matters. When a quarterback changes teams and improves, the diagnostic question is which rates moved. Interception rate is the most QB-owned stat and it stayed identical, which says the player did not change. Touchdown rate and sack rate are the most environment-sensitive stats and both transformed, which says the environment did. That is the cleanest statistical fingerprint of a real fit upgrade rather than a fluke hot streak.
6th in EPA per dropback in 2025, ahead of every quarterback not named Maye, Love, Stafford, Goff, or Prescott.
Comparison2025 EPA per dropback, QBs with 300+ dropbacks (regular season)
| Rank | QB | EPA/dropback |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | +0.298 |
| 2 | Jordan Love | +0.240 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | +0.229 |
| 4 | Jared Goff | +0.174 |
| 5 | Dak Prescott | +0.167 |
| 6 | Daniel Jones | +0.139 |
This was not a counting-stat mirage inflated by garbage time or a friendly schedule of catch-up passing. On a per-play basis, Jones' 2025 was the 6th-most efficient passing season in football (+0.139 EPA per dropback), ahead of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts. His QB13 fantasy finish (17.4 PPR per game) actually understates how well he played.
Why it matters. EPA per dropback is the single best summary of passing value per play, and a top-6 finish across 13 games is far past the threshold where small samples produce flukes. For fantasy purposes the gap between his efficiency rank (6th) and his scoring rank (13th) is upside: efficiency tends to hold, and the missing points were mostly the four games he did not play.
How 2025 actually went
8-2 through ten games: the Colts' best start since Peyton Manning's 2009.
MilestoneColts seasons opening 8-2 or better (first 10 games) since 1999
| Season | Start | Quarterback |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 10-0 | Peyton Manning |
| 2009 | 10-0 | Peyton Manning |
| 2025 | 8-2 | Daniel Jones |
Only twice since 2007 had the Colts won even eight of their first ten games, and both earlier runs belong to Peyton Manning. Jones' 2025 Colts started 8-2, scoring 29.8 points a game across the 12 games he finished and topping 20 points in 11 of the 12. Then his season ended in week 14, and so did theirs: 0-5 the rest of the way at 21.8 points a game, with Riley Leonard and a 44-year-old Philip Rivers, unretired mid-season, taking the snaps.
Why it matters. The with/without split is the strongest kind of evidence a quarterback can generate, because it holds everything else on the roster constant. Indianapolis with Jones was a 30-point offense on a Manning-era winning pace; Indianapolis without him could not win a game. No advanced stat makes his case more directly than the season's own before-and-after.
The two most-sacked QB seasons of the last quarter century both happened in the same huddle: the 2023 Giants.
RareHighest single-season sack rate since 1999 (min 150 attempts)
| Rank | QB | Season | Sack rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommy DeVito | 2023 NYG | 17.2% |
| 2 | Daniel Jones | 2023 NYG | 15.8% |
| 3 | Alex Smith | 2005 SF | 14.9% |
| 4 | Justin Fields | 2022 CHI | 14.7% |
In 2023, Daniel Jones was sacked on 15.8% of his dropbacks, the 2nd-worst rate by any quarterback since 1999. The worst rate ever recorded in that span? His own backup, Tommy DeVito, behind the same Giants line the same year. Two seasons later in Indianapolis, Jones' sack rate was 5.42%, better than his best Giants season. The 2023 disaster now reads less like a Jones problem and more like a crime scene with two victims.
Why it matters. Sack avoidance is usually a quarterback trait that follows the player, which is exactly what made Jones' Giants numbers so damning. The DeVito twin data point is the rare control experiment: a different quarterback behind the same line posted an even worse rate, which shifts real blame onto the environment. Jones' 5.4% in Indy, sustained over 13 games, is the confirmation.
Inside the 2-yard line, the Colts just handed it to the quarterback: 4 touchdowns on 5 carries.
SplitJones rushing at the goal line (carries starting inside the opponent 2)
| Season | Carries inside the 2 | TDs |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 (NYG) | 5 | 2 |
| 2024 (NYG) | 5 | 2 |
| 2025 (IND) | 5 | 4 |
Jones scored 5 rushing touchdowns in 2025, four of them from inside the opponent 2-yard line, where Indianapolis made the quarterback keep its signature short-yardage call even with the league's leading rusher standing next to him. Those 30 rushing points are pure fantasy margin: they came on just 45 rushing attempts all season.
Why it matters. Quarterback rushing touchdowns look like luck but mostly track role, and Jones has now held a goal-line rushing role on two different teams (20 career rushing TDs). Five points a season of pure sneak value does not sound like much until you notice it is the difference between QB13 and QB18 in points per game. The role, not the speed, is the asset.
Trust it or not
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: the revival holds. Jones finishes top-15 in PPR points per game in 2026.
Veteran QBs (27+) who hit 16+ PPR/game in year one with a new team, 2000-2024
| QB | Year one | Year two |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees (NO 2006) | 16.3 | 16.2 |
| Kirk Cousins (MIN 2018) | 17.7 | 16.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill (TEN 2019) | 18.7 | 21.5 |
| Tom Brady (TB 2020) | 21.1 | 22.0 |
| Sam Darnold (MIN 2024) | 18.1 | 13.8 |
| Brett Favre (MIN 2009) | 17.7 | 7.5 |
Nine veteran quarterbacks since 2000 changed teams at 27 or older and immediately produced 16+ PPR points a game over a 10+ game season. Their year twos split: four of the eight with a follow-up season held 16+, and the average landed at 15.2. What separates the holds (Brees, Brady, Tannehill, Cousins) from the collapses (Favre, Fitzpatrick): the holds kept their health and their offensive infrastructure. Jones keeps his play caller, his left tackle, and the league's leading rusher. The gradeable call: Jones finishes top-15 among QBs in PPR points per game in 2026.
Why it matters. At ADP 159 the market is pricing Jones as if 2025 needs to be entirely repriced away. But the cohort says veteran new-team breakouts hold about half the time, the conditions that predict holding (same system, same weapons, real efficiency underneath) are all present, and the team's own point differential says the environment was no fluke. A coin-flip chance at a QB1 season for a 14th-round pick is a bargain by construction: the downside is one wasted late pick.
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