Player
Drew Lock
QB
Lock is a case study in the gap between college production and NFL execution — a high-upside prospect whose numbers at Mizzou never translated into sustainable starting performance.
6-year career across 3 teams. 6,369 passing yards. 2nd-round DEN pick (#42, 2019) who became a multi-team backup.
MilestoneCareer regular-season totals
| Stat | Total |
|---|---|
| Seasons | 6 |
| Teams | 3 (DEN, SEA, NYG) |
| Games | 38 |
| Yards | 6,369 |
| TDs | 34 |
| INTs | 28 |
| Cmp% | 59.6% |
| Draft | R2 #42 DEN 2019 |
Why it matters. Lock is a case study in the gap between college production and NFL execution — a high-upside prospect whose numbers at Mizzou never translated into sustainable starting performance.
DEN 2019 (4-1 rookie close, 7 TDs) → DEN 2020 (15 INTs in 13 games) → SEA backup → NYG 2024 (5 starts) → SEA 2025.
TrendLock career arc
| Phase | Years | Highlight |
|---|---|---|
| DEN rookie spark | 2019 | 5 games, 7 TDs, 4-1 |
| DEN starter year | 2020 | 13 games, 16 TDs / 15 INTs |
| DEN demoted | 2021 | Bridgewater took job; 6 relief apps |
| SEA backup | 2022-2023 | Geno Smith era; 4 games in 2023 |
| NYG 2024 | 2024 | 5 starts replacing D. Jones |
| SEA 2025 | 2025 | Backup, 3 game apps |
Why it matters. Lock's arc illustrates how a hot 5-game rookie stretch can obscure deeper accuracy issues — the 2020 regression was predictable in hindsight once defenses had film.
2019 (64.1% Cmp, 7 TDs / 3 INTs in 5 games). 2020 (57.3% Cmp, 16 TDs / 15 INTs in 13 games). Complete reversal.
SplitLock DEN sophomore drop
| Year | Games | Yds | TDs | INTs | Cmp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 1,020 | 7 | 3 | 64.1% |
| 2020 | 13 | 2,933 | 16 | 15 | 57.3% |
| 2021 | 6 | 787 | 2 | 2 | 60.4% |
Why it matters. The 2019-to-2020 split is the cleanest evidence that Lock's rookie stretch was a small-sample anomaly — the underlying accuracy and decision-making issues were always there.
His 2019-to-2020 EPA/play collapse (-0.188 pts/play) is the 2nd-largest rookie-to-sophomore drop among QBs since 2015.
RareBiggest QB EPA/play drops: rookie → sophomore (since 2015, min 100 rookie dropbacks)
| QB | Draft | Rookie EPA/play | Soph EPA/play | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 2016 | +0.216 | -0.070 | -0.286 |
| Drew Lock | 2019 | +0.085 | -0.103 | -0.188 |
| Mac Jones | 2021 | +0.058 | -0.089 | -0.147 |
| Will Levis | 2023 | -0.045 | -0.190 | -0.145 |
Why it matters. EPA-per-play is the most predictive single-season QB efficiency metric; Lock's trajectory shows a player whose 2019 numbers were a ceiling, not a floor.
He was traded to SEA for Russell Wilson in 2022 (4 picks + 3 players) — ended up SEA's #2 behind Geno Smith.
ComparisonWilson-for-Lock trade pieces
| Going to DEN | Going to SEA |
|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | Drew Lock |
| Noah Fant | |
| Shelby Harris | |
| 2022 R1, R2 | |
| 2023 R1, R2 |
Why it matters. The trade crystallized Lock's career status: valuable enough to be a key trade piece, but never the answer at QB1 wherever he landed.
He set the SEC career touchdown pass record at Missouri (99 TDs) — the same record Eli Manning had held.
AnomalyLock at Missouri
| Phase | Detail |
|---|---|
| Years | 2015-2018 |
| Career TDs | 99 (SEC record at time of graduation) |
| Prior holder | Eli Manning (81) |
| 2017 stats | 3,964 yds, 44 TDs |
| NFL Draft | R2 #42 DEN 2019 |
Why it matters. College TD records make for impressive draft profiles, but Lock is the clearest recent example of how SEC volume statistics can mask NFL-level accuracy limitations.
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