Player
Dante Pettis
WR · Saints
EPA per target is the cleanest single-play value metric for a receiver — a +0.56 swing across two eras of the same player is a statistical cliff almost never seen in healthy WRs.
In 2018 Pettis generated +0.39 EPA per target — then fell to −0.17 for the next 7 seasons combined.
AnomalyPettis EPA per target by era
| Era | Targets | Recs | TDs | EPA/Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 45 | 27 | 5 | +0.39 |
| 2019–2025 | 128 | 65 | 8 | −0.17 |
In 2018 Pettis ranked 30th among all WRs with 30+ targets in EPA per target (+0.39), slotting in behind elite names like Tyler Lockett (+1.06) and Robert Foster (+0.83). Every season since, he has posted negative EPA per target — a total swing of more than half a point per target.
The gap isn't purely about volume or role: even in his best post-2018 season (2022 with Chicago, 42 targets), he posted −0.39 EPA per target. Something fundamental changed when defenses had a full offseason to study his route tree.
Why it matters. EPA per target is the cleanest single-play value metric for a receiver — a +0.56 swing across two eras of the same player is a statistical cliff almost never seen in healthy WRs.
Career game: Week 13 of 2018 vs Seattle — 5 catches, 129 yards, 2 TDs.
MilestonePettis' best NFL game came in December 2018 against Seattle: 5 catches, 129 yards, and 2 receiving TDs. The 49ers were 2-10 and starting Nick Mullens; Pettis answered with the only multi-100-yard, multi-TD game of his career.
He followed it up two weeks later with 5 catches, 83 yards also vs SEA. Those back-to-back Seahawks games (212 yards combined) represent the offensive ceiling he never reached again — no post-2018 game topped 84 yards.
Top-5 receiving games (all regular season)
| Season | Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 13 | SEA | 5 | 129 | 2 |
| 2022 | 6 | WAS | 4 | 84 | 1 |
| 2018 | 15 | SEA | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| 2018 | 12 | TB | 4 | 77 | 1 |
| 2018 | 1 | MIN | 2 | 61 | 1 |
Why it matters. The back-to-back SEA games anchored expectations that made every subsequent season look like underperformance — the ceiling was visible, just never repeatable.
Out of the NFL all of 2023 — came back in 2024 as a Saints punt returner; a reversed 88-yard TD was his signature play.
AnomalyPettis 2024–25 punt return activity
| Season | Games w/ Returns | Ret Att | Fair Catches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 2025 | 5 | 8 | 10 |
After 2022 Pettis didn't take a regular-season snap in 2023. He returned in 2024 with New Orleans as a special-teams revival project. His most electric moment: Week 11 vs Cleveland, he returned a punt 88 yards for an apparent TD — but replay overturned it (ruled out of bounds), settling for a 53-yard gain.
In 2025 he has 5 games with 3+ receptions: the Week 18 ATL game (5 catches, 60 yards) was his most-reception game since the 2018 SEA game (also 5 catches). He's the Saints' WR4 behind Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Bub Means.
Why it matters. Coming back after a full year out of the league as a special-teams contributor is a rare career arc; the reversed TD captures how close his Saints tenure came to having a defining highlight-reel moment.
2025: Pettis is catching 100% of his short targets — 7 for 7 — one of only three WRs to hit that mark.
Split2025 WRs with 100% short-route catch rate (7+ targets)
| Player | Short Tgts | Short Recs | Catch% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Savion Williams | 9 | 9 | 100% |
| Luke McCaffrey | 7 | 7 | 100% |
| Dante Pettis | 7 | 7 | 100% |
On short targets (passes thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage) in 2025, Pettis has been perfect: 7 targets, 7 catches, 83 yards. On deep balls he's 2-for-4 (50%) for 44 yards and no TDs.
The contrast shows how Pettis has survived at age 29 as a WR4: he's become a precision route runner on short-area throws rather than the deep-threat role the 49ers hoped for in 2018.
Why it matters. A 100% short-route catch rate over a half-season sample shows Pettis has found his niche — he runs precise routes vs. soft coverage, even if the big plays are gone.
13 career TDs in 7 years — Deebo Samuel (also SF, drafted one year later) matched that total in 2021 alone.
ComparisonDeebo Samuel Sr. season TD totals
| Season | Total TDs | Rush TDs | Rec TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2021 | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| 2022 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 2023 | 12 | 7 | 5 |
| 2024 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2025 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
The 49ers drafted Pettis (round 2, pick 44, 2018) and Deebo Samuel (round 2, 2019) one year apart at the same position. Samuel's 2021 season alone produced 14 TDs — one more than Pettis's 13 career receiving TDs across 7 seasons.
The Pettis story is the same one every front office tries to avoid: dynamic college punt-returner + finesse route-running profile, but insufficient separation against pro corners. He's found a useful late-career niche as a returner and WR4 — which, for a 2018 2nd-rounder, still counts as a soft landing.
Why it matters. The Pettis-Samuel comparison is a concrete illustration of draft-class variance at the same position for the same franchise, anchored by the single 2021 season data point.
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