Player
Josh Allen
QB · BUF Bills
Total touchdowns is the cleanest measure of how much scoring a single player generates, and Allen leading the Mahomes era in it is the strongest single line on his resume. For fantasy the dual-stream shape matters more than the total: passing touchdowns fluctuate with receiver health and scheme, but a goal-line rushing role is the quarterback's own, which makes Allen's scoring less fragile than anyone else's at the position.
The touchdown monopoly
301 total touchdowns since 2018. Nobody else in football, Mahomes included, has 290.
ComparisonMost total TDs (passing + rushing + receiving), 2018-2025 regular season
| Player | Total | Pass | Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 301 | 220 | 79 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 286 | 267 | 19 |
| Jared Goff | 234 | 223 | 10 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 225 | 214 | 11 |
| Lamar Jackson | 222 | 187 | 35 |
Since Allen entered the league in 2018, he has accounted for 301 touchdowns, 15 more than Mahomes in the same window. The composition is the story: Mahomes has out-thrown him 267 to 220, but Allen's 79 rushing scores are a second income stream no other passer can match. Two touchdowns also came as a receiver, because of course they did.
Why it matters. Total touchdowns is the cleanest measure of how much scoring a single player generates, and Allen leading the Mahomes era in it is the strongest single line on his resume. For fantasy the dual-stream shape matters more than the total: passing touchdowns fluctuate with receiver health and scheme, but a goal-line rushing role is the quarterback's own, which makes Allen's scoring less fragile than anyone else's at the position.
A 12-touchdown rushing season by a QB has happened eight times since 1999. Allen owns three of them, all in a row.
RareEvery 12+ rushing TD season by a QB since 1999 (regular season)
| QB | Season | Rush TDs |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 2023 | 15 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2023 | 15 |
| Cam Newton | 2011 | 14 |
| Josh Allen | 2025 | 14 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2024 | 14 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2022 | 13 |
| Cam Newton | 2020 | 12 |
| Josh Allen | 2024 | 12 |
In 27 seasons of play-by-play history, only three quarterbacks have ever rushed for 12 or more touchdowns in a season: Newton twice, Hurts three times, and Allen three times, 2023, 2024 and 2025, back to back to back. Nobody else has even one. At age 29, Allen is not aging out of the role; his three biggest rushing-TD seasons are his three most recent.
Why it matters. One monster rushing season can be a fluke of goal-line sequencing. Three consecutive ones is a structural role, and the trend direction matters enormously for 2026 drafts: the common fear with a 29-year-old runner is erosion, but Allen's ground scoring is accelerating, not fading. The list itself shows how thin the air is, eight such seasons ever, split among three men.
The tax and the toll
Inside the 5-yard line, Allen converts 58 percent of his carries into touchdowns, the best rate of any QB in the era.
SplitQB rushes inside the opponent 5, 2018-2025 (min 25 attempts, regular season)
| QB | Attempts | TDs | TD rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 84 | 49 | 58.3% |
| Justin Fields | 26 | 15 | 57.7% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 31 | 17 | 54.8% |
| Jalen Hurts | 87 | 46 | 52.9% |
| Taysom Hill | 34 | 17 | 50.0% |
| Cam Newton | 34 | 16 | 47.1% |
Since 2018, Allen has taken 84 carries inside the opponent 5 and scored on 49 of them, a 58.3 percent conversion rate that leads every quarterback with a real sample. Even Hurts, running the most famous short-yardage play in football, converts at 52.9. When Buffalo reaches the goal line, the highest-percentage play in their book is handing the ball to nobody.
Why it matters. Goal-line carries are the most valuable real estate in fantasy, and Buffalo allocates them to its quarterback at an elite conversion rate, roughly 10 red-zone touchdowns a year that on other rosters would belong to a running back. This is the mechanism behind the rushing TD record: not speed, but a 237-pound man with a sample of 84 plays saying the play simply works.
2024: the NFL's best sack rate. 2025: 40 sacks, nearly triple. Allen's pocket had the strangest whiplash in football.
AnomalyAllen sack rate by season (regular season)
| Season | Sacks | Sack rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | 3.9% |
| 2022 | 33 | 5.5% |
| 2023 | 24 | 4.0% |
| 2024 | 14 | 2.8% |
| 2025 | 40 | 8.0% |
In 2024 Allen was the hardest quarterback in football to sack: 14 sacks all year, a league-best 2.8 percent rate (minimum 400 dropbacks). One season later he took 40 sacks at 8.0 percent, nearly triple, his worst rate since his rookie year. Sack avoidance is normally one of the stickiest quarterback traits, which makes a swing of this size, in both directions, the most unusual line on his 2025 page.
Why it matters. Because sack rate is usually a stable personal trait, a tripling in one year points at environment: line injuries, longer developing routes, or a quarterback pressing with a depleted receiving room. The optimistic read is that his 2021-2024 baseline (roughly 3 to 5 percent) is the real Allen and 2025 is the outlier. The watch item for 2026 is simply which of the two numbers returns, because 26 extra sacks is roughly a full win of field position and fantasy points.
From pick 7 to the surest pick
2018: third-worst accuracy over expectation in football, ahead of only Rosen and Bortles. 2020: third-best.
TrendAllen completion rate over expected (CPOE), by season
| Season | CPOE |
|---|---|
| 2018 | -6.9 |
| 2019 | -1.6 |
| 2020 | +6.6 |
| 2021 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | +5.0 |
| 2024 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | +3.5 |
As a rookie, Allen completed passes 6.9 percentage points below expectation, worse than every 300-attempt passer in football except Josh Rosen and Blake Bortles, the two cautionary tales of that draft era. Two years later he sat at +6.6, behind only Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Accuracy was supposed to be the one thing you cannot teach. Allen's career is the leading counterexample of the play-by-play era.
Why it matters. Half of first-round quarterbacks never produce even one startable fantasy season, and through two years Allen profiled as one of the misses. The accuracy leap is what separates his outcome from Rosen's, and it reframes how to read young QBs generally: the trajectory of accuracy over expectation, not its rookie level, carried the signal. It is also why his floor today is so high; the fixed flaw stayed fixed for six years.
Six straight seasons averaging 22+ fantasy points a game. No other QB since 1999 has managed even three in a row.
RareQB seasons at 22+ PPR points per game since 1999 (min 12 games)
| QB | Total seasons | Longest streak |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 6 | 6 (2020-2025) |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 1 |
A 22-point-per-game season is a QB1-overall-caliber year. Rodgers collected four of them across a decade, never consecutively. Mahomes has three. Allen has strung together six in a row, every season from 2020 through 2025, with per-game averages of 24.8, 23.7, 24.7, 23.1, 23.7 and 22.8. The year-to-year variance that defines every other elite fantasy QB simply has not applied to him.
Why it matters. Elite fantasy quarterbacks usually oscillate: receiver injuries, touchdown regression and scheme churn drag even Mahomes below the top rate in some years. Allen's floor is the anomaly, and the mechanism is the dual income stream, when the passing dips, the rushing scores hold the average. Six consecutive years is not a hot streak; at his draft cost it is the closest thing fantasy has to a bond.
What happens next: Allen rushes for 8 or more touchdowns again in 2026.
QB seasons with 10+ rushing TDs, 1999-2024: what the next season looked like
| Cohort | Value |
|---|---|
| Qualifying seasons with a next season played | 11 |
| Avg rushing TDs the following year | 9.4 |
| Followed with 8+ | 7 of 11 |
| Followed with 10+ | 5 of 11 |
Allen just rushed for 14 touchdowns, his third straight season at 12 or more. History's sample of 10-TD rushing quarterbacks is tiny because the club is tiny, but it is emphatic: the 11 prior instances were followed by an average of 9.4 rushing scores, with 7 of 11 reaching 8 again. Add that Buffalo's goal-line role has produced double digits three years running and the gradeable call is direct: 8 or more rushing touchdowns in 2026.
Why it matters. Rushing touchdowns are the most valuable and most doubted part of a QB's fantasy line, doubted because for most passers they really are luck. The law splits the position: for quarterbacks with a real designed-run role, the touchdowns persist, because the same coaching staff keeps calling the same play for the same 237-pound man. Allen is the purest case of that mechanism in the sample, which is what his early-round price is actually buying.
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