Cedrick Wilson Jr.

His single 2021 season produced as many TDs (6) as all his other 6 NFL seasons combined.

2021 alone: 6 TDs. Every other season combined: 6 TDs. Wilson entered 2021 in a contract year and turned in 45 catches for 602 yards and 6 touchdowns — a WR3 breakout that earned him a free-agent deal with Miami.

Every season since has been role-player output. The single contract-year spike defines the entire career arc.

Why it matters. A career-year spike that exactly equals the combined output of every other season is the clearest possible picture of a one-peak career. The contract-year timing makes the mechanism concrete: Wilson had a financial incentive in 2021 that he never had again.

837 yards in Dallas, 476 in Miami, 211 in New Orleans — and Dallas had nearly identical games played (31 vs 30).

With nearly identical games played in Dallas and Miami (31 vs 30), Wilson caught 28 more passes and gained 361 more yards in Dallas — plus 5 more TDs. Targets tell the story: 97 in Dallas vs 65 in Miami.

Miami’s depth chart (Hill, Waddle) pushed Wilson to the margins. The Saints role wasn’t any wider.

Why it matters. Same games played, wildly different production: Wilson’s target share cratered when he landed behind Hill and Waddle in Miami. The numbers isolate opportunity as the single variable — his efficiency per reception (Y/R: 12.5 vs 12.2) was nearly unchanged.

Career-high 119 yds + 2 TDs vs Philadelphia in 2021 Week 18 — one of only two 100-yard games in 74 career appearances.

Across 74 career regular-season games, Wilson has just two 100-yard outings — both in a Cowboys uniform:

- 2021 Week 18 vs PHI: 5-119-2 (career-high) - 2020 Week 3 vs SEA: 5-107-2

Both featured identical reception counts (5) and identical TD totals (2). His best non-Dallas game: 57 yards and a TD on 6 catches at Denver in 2024 as a Saint.

Why it matters. Two 100-yard games in 74 career appearances — both with identical 5-catch, 2-TD lines — marks Wilson as a spike contributor, not a volume receiver. The symmetry between his two best outings is a genuine numerical oddity.

Wilson’s 2021 is a statistical outlier: 6 TDs on just 45 catches — one TD every 7.5 receptions, nearly double the 2021 average for WRs in his volume bucket.

In 2021, Wilson posted a 13.3% TD-per-reception rate (6 TDs on 45 catches) — placing him 5th among all 57 WRs with 30-60 receptions that season. The cohort average was 7.1%; Wilson nearly doubled it.

He never replicated it: across all other seasons, his combined TD rate drops to 7.4% (6 TDs on 81 catches) — right at the league average.

Why it matters. A WR3 nearly doubling the league average TD rate for his volume bucket signals heavy red-zone usage that his post-Dallas teams never replicated — his 2021 TD efficiency was a scheme artifact, not a sustainable trait.

8 career TDs in Dallas, 4 in Miami and New Orleans combined — same number of seasons (3 each), opposite TD output.

Wilson’s Dallas era (3 seasons) and post-Dallas era (4 seasons) are nearly mirror images in raw catches (67 vs 59) and yards (837 vs 687) — but the TD output splits 8 vs 4. A receiver who looked like a red-zone weapon in Dallas became a nearly TD-free role player everywhere else.

The 2022 Miami stint — his first year after a free-agent deal — produced 12 catches, 136 yards, and 0 TDs in 14 games.

Why it matters. Nearly identical volume (67 rec/837 yds vs 59 rec/687 yds) across two eras but a halved TD rate points to scheme, not player decline — Dallas used Wilson in the red zone; Miami and New Orleans didn’t.