Player
Dak Prescott
QB · DAL Cowboys
Fourth-quarter throws inside one score are the passes a defense knows are coming, made with the field shrunk by the clock and with a turnover ending the game outright. That is where interception rates spike league wide, which is what makes a zero season notable and a third zero season the sort of thing that stops looking like chance. It is also the least visible part of a fantasy quarterback's value, because a pick that ends a comeback also ends the drive that was going to be worth points.
Nobody throws it away late
Eighty-nine fourth-quarter throws with the game inside one score, and not one interception. No quarterback since 1999 has done that three times. He has.
RareSeasons with 80+ fourth-quarter passes inside one score and zero interceptions, since 1999
| Quarterback | Season | Attempts | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 2022 | 121 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2009 | 113 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2015 | 107 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2012 | 107 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2018 | 100 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2021 | 95 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2024 | 94 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2016 | 92 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2016 | 92 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2025 | 89 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 2022 | 88 | 0 |
How many times each quarterback has done it
| Quarterback | Seasons | Years |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 2016, 2018, 2025 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 2021, 2022 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 2020, 2024 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 2009, 2021 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 2007, 2008 |
Twenty seasons since 1999 qualify. Prescott owns three of them, more than anyone, and his 2025 came on 89 throws that produced 681 yards, three touchdowns and plus 0.264 expected points per attempt.
Why it matters. Fourth-quarter throws inside one score are the passes a defense knows are coming, made with the field shrunk by the clock and with a turnover ending the game outright. That is where interception rates spike league wide, which is what makes a zero season notable and a third zero season the sort of thing that stops looking like chance. It is also the least visible part of a fantasy quarterback's value, because a pick that ends a comeback also ends the drive that was going to be worth points.
One hundred and thirty-one dropbacks from under center in 2025. Twelve touchdowns, zero interceptions.
SplitPrescott by formation, 2025 regular season (dropbacks, sacks included)
| Formation | Dropbacks | Completion | Yards per dropback | TDs | INTs | EPA per dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under center | 131 | 65.6% | 7.69 | 12 | 0 | +0.297 |
| Shotgun | 490 | 63.5% | 6.75 | 17 | 9 | +0.143 |
2025 under-center dropbacks, quarterbacks with 100 or more
| Quarterback | Dropbacks | Yards per dropback | TDs | INTs | EPA per dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 164 | 8.96 | 8 | 2 | +0.374 |
| Drake Maye | 123 | 8.00 | 12 | 0 | +0.349 |
| Sam Darnold | 162 | 9.90 | 17 | 6 | +0.303 |
| Dak Prescott | 131 | 7.69 | 12 | 0 | +0.297 |
| Matthew Stafford | 244 | 7.40 | 28 | 1 | +0.258 |
| Jordan Love | 110 | 6.95 | 6 | 2 | +0.207 |
Forty percent of his touchdown passes came on 21 percent of his dropbacks. Three quarterbacks dropped back 100-plus times from under center without an interception in 2025: Prescott, Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence, and Prescott's 12 touchdowns matched Maye's on the heaviest workload of the three.
Why it matters. Under-center dropbacks carry a run threat, which buys a beat of hesitation from a linebacker and turns a covered route into an open one. The efficiency gap here is roughly a yard of yards-per-dropback and 15 hundredths of a point of expected points, which over 131 snaps is worth about 20 expected points to Dallas. The zero is the part that matters most for a fantasy manager, because it means the formation he uses least is the one carrying his touchdown rate.
The fastest offense in football
Dallas ran more offensive plays per game than any team in football, and he threw 600 passes. Both are the ceiling of his profile.
ComparisonOffensive plays per game, 2025 regular season
| Team | Plays | Games | Plays per game | EPA per play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1,104 | 17 | 64.9 | +0.098 |
| CHI | 1,096 | 17 | 64.5 | +0.079 |
| NYG | 1,079 | 17 | 63.5 | +0.012 |
| LAC | 1,080 | 17 | 63.5 | -0.023 |
| DEN | 1,079 | 17 | 63.5 | +0.050 |
| HOU | 1,078 | 17 | 63.4 | -0.013 |
Prescott's attempt totals, five biggest seasons
| Season | Games | Attempts | Yards | TDs | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 600 | 4,552 | 30 | 313.8 |
| 2019 | 16 | 596 | 4,902 | 30 | 337.8 |
| 2021 | 16 | 596 | 4,449 | 37 | 320.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | 590 | 4,516 | 36 | 342.8 |
| 2018 | 16 | 526 | 3,885 | 22 | 285.9 |
Six hundred attempts is a career high and it came in the same season Dallas led the league in snaps. The offense also finished with the best expected points per play of the six fastest teams, so the volume was not empty: 471 points, seventh in the league, on a 7-9-1 record.
Why it matters. Pace is the most reliable multiplier a fantasy quarterback has, because it adds attempts without requiring him to be better. Dallas got to 64.9 snaps a game partly by choice and partly by playing from behind, and both routes point the same way for a passer's raw totals. The number to watch in 2026 is whether the snap count survives a healthier defense, because a Dallas team that leads more often is a Dallas team that throws less.
MYTH TEST: Prescott needs CeeDee Lamb. In the four games Lamb missed he threw for the same yardage per game and nearly double the touchdowns.
Prescott's 2025 with and without CeeDee Lamb (regular season)
| Split | Games | Attempts | Yards | Yards per game | TDs | TDs per game | INTs | PPR per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamb active | 13 | 457 | 3,484 | 268.0 | 19 | 1.46 | 8 | 16.94 |
| Lamb out (weeks 3-6) | 4 | 143 | 1,068 | 267.0 | 11 | 2.75 | 2 | 23.40 |
Dallas scoring in the four games Lamb missed
| Week | Opponent | Dallas points |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | at Chicago | 14 |
| 4 | vs Green Bay | 40 |
| 5 | at the Jets | 37 |
| 6 | at Carolina | 27 |
One yard per game separates the two splits, and the touchdown rate goes the wrong way for the myth: 11 scores in four games without Lamb against 19 in 13 games with him. Dallas averaged 29.5 points in the Lamb-less stretch against 27.2 in the rest of the season. The caveat is honest and important: four games is four games, and the schedule in that window included the Jets and Carolina.
Why it matters. The premise behind the myth is that Prescott's production is a function of one receiver's separation, which would make him a risky pick every time Lamb tweaks something. The four-game sample argues instead that Dallas's structure, its pace, and George Pickens carried the offense unchanged, and that Prescott's ceiling weeks are about the number of snaps rather than about who runs the routes. Treat the touchdown gap as noise and the yardage as the real finding: nothing measurably changed.
Twenty-one red zone touchdown passes in 2025, and his expected points inside the 20 were still negative.
AnomalyPrescott inside the opponent 20-yard line, 2025 regular season
| Attempts | Completions | Completion rate | TDs | INTs | EPA per throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 57 | 51.4% | 21 | 3 | -0.101 |
For scale: his numbers everywhere else in 2025
| Area | Throws | TDs | EPA per throw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inside the 20 | 111 | 21 | -0.101 |
| Under center, all areas | 131 | 12 | +0.297 |
| Shotgun, all areas | 490 | 17 | +0.143 |
He threw 111 passes inside the 20, converted 21 into touchdowns, and the plays still cost Dallas expected points on average. That is the shape of a red zone offense that scores when it connects and stalls when it does not: a 51.4 percent completion rate in the tightest windows on the field, with three interceptions attached.
Why it matters. Expected points added is unforgiving inside the 20 because an incompletion there burns a down in the highest-value area of the field, so a merely average red zone passer posts a negative number. Prescott's touchdown total says the offense finished drives; the efficiency number says it took a lot of tries to do it. The practical read is that his touchdown total is more dependent on red zone volume than on red zone precision, and red zone volume follows the pace and the field position that the defense provides.
Ten years in, and the 2026 price
Eight games in 2024. Six hundred attempts in 2025. That is the biggest bounce back off a lost season any quarterback has had since 1999.
TrendQuarterbacks who threw 550+ passes the year after an 8-game season, since 1999
| Quarterback | Lost season | Games | Next season | Attempts | Yards | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 2024 | 8 | 2025 | 600 | 4,552 | 32 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2017 | 7 | 2018 | 597 | 4,442 | 34 |
| Dak Prescott | 2020 | 5 | 2021 | 596 | 4,449 | 28 |
| Marc Bulger | 2005 | 8 | 2006 | 588 | 4,301 | 29 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2000 | 8 | 2001 | 558 | 3,832 | 25 |
| Eli Manning | 2004 | 8 | 2005 | 558 | 3,762 | 24 |
Six cases in 27 years, and Prescott owns two of them. His 2025 is the largest attempt total any of the six posted, and at 32 he is the oldest player on the list. The 2024 season that preceded it was eight games and 286 attempts.
Why it matters. The list is short because the two things it requires almost never happen together: a season lost to injury, then a full 17-game workload the next year at a volume that only a healthy starter on a pass-heavy team can reach. Prescott has now cleared that bar twice, in his late twenties and again at 32. For a quarterback whose availability is the standing objection, two full recoveries is the most direct evidence available.
Second-best completion percentage of any quarterback with 4,000 attempts since 1999. Only Drew Brees is ahead.
MilestoneCareer passing, quarterbacks with 4,000+ regular-season attempts since 1999
| Quarterback | Attempts | Yards | TDs | INTs | TD to INT | Completion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 10,558 | 80,428 | 571 | 243 | 2.35 | 67.7% |
| Dak Prescott | 4,759 | 35,989 | 243 | 92 | 2.64 | 66.9% |
| Kirk Cousins | 5,899 | 44,700 | 298 | 131 | 2.27 | 66.7% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4,673 | 35,939 | 267 | 85 | 3.14 | 66.2% |
| Peyton Manning | 8,804 | 68,201 | 513 | 223 | 2.30 | 65.9% |
| Jared Goff | 5,224 | 39,622 | 256 | 102 | 2.51 | 65.8% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8,742 | 66,267 | 527 | 123 | 4.28 | 65.1% |
| Tom Brady | 12,052 | 89,216 | 649 | 212 | 3.06 | 64.3% |
He is also fifth in touchdown-to-interception ratio in the same group, at 2.64, behind Rodgers, Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Brady. Ten seasons in, the profile is accuracy plus care, and the counting totals are held down by the 26 regular-season games he has missed since 2020, not by the rate stats.
Why it matters. Completion percentage is inflated league wide by the modern short passing game, which is why the comparison has to be against the same era rather than against history. Against the 4,000-attempt group since 1999, Prescott sits above every name except Brees and above every active quarterback. That accuracy is the mechanism behind the fourth-quarter interception record earlier in this set: the throws he takes are the ones he completes.
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