Player

Aaron Rodgers

QB · PIT Steelers

TD-to-INT ratio over a full career is the cleanest single expression of the risk-reward tradeoff every quarterback manages, and Rodgers has run away from the entire modern era on it. What makes 4.28 remarkable is that he sustained it at high volume for two decades, through three franchises, and it never dipped: the ball-security half of his game outlived the arm strength half.

FanIQ Research · August 30, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

The interception allergy

527 touchdowns against 123 interceptions. No 4,000-attempt passer since 1999 is within a country mile of his 4.28 ratio.

Rare

Career TD-to-INT ratio, QBs with 4,000+ attempts since 1999 (regular season)

Rank	QB	Attempts	TD	INT	Ratio
1	Aaron Rodgers	8,742	527	123	4.28
2	Patrick Mahomes	4,673	267	85	3.14
3	Russell Wilson	6,120	353	114	3.10
4	Tom Brady	12,052	649	212	3.06
5	Dak Prescott	4,759	243	92	2.64

Across 21 seasons and 8,742 regular-season attempts, Rodgers has thrown 527 touchdowns against just 123 interceptions. His 4.28 ratio is not merely first among every 4,000-attempt passer since 1999: the gap between him and second-place Mahomes (3.14) is bigger than the gap between Mahomes and tenth place. Even at 41, his 2025 line in Pittsburgh was 24 to 7.

Why it matters. TD-to-INT ratio over a full career is the cleanest single expression of the risk-reward tradeoff every quarterback manages, and Rodgers has run away from the entire modern era on it. What makes 4.28 remarkable is that he sustained it at high volume for two decades, through three franchises, and it never dipped: the ball-security half of his game outlived the arm strength half.

In the red zone, where interceptions hurt most, he threw 364 touchdowns and 19 picks. Nobody since 1999 matches the 19-to-1.

Split

Red-zone passing TD-to-INT, QBs with 800+ red-zone attempts since 1999 (regular season)

Rank	QB	RZ att	TD	INT	Ratio
1	Aaron Rodgers	1,514	364	19	19.2
2	Tom Brady	1,899	465	25	18.6
3	Kirk Cousins	860	205	14	14.6
4	Matt Ryan	1,298	277	21	13.2
5	Russell Wilson	937	239	19	12.6

The red zone compresses every window and punishes every mistake, and it is exactly where Rodgers separates. On 1,514 career red-zone throws he produced 364 touchdowns against 19 interceptions, a 19.2-to-1 ratio that edges even Brady (18.6) and roughly triples what most franchise QBs manage. That is one interception per 80 red-zone attempts, for twenty years.

Why it matters. Red-zone interceptions are the most expensive turnovers in football: they erase drives that were already worth points. A 19-to-1 ratio there means Rodgers effectively never handed back a scoring drive, which is a large part of why his teams outscored their yardage profiles for two decades. It is the situational version of the career-ratio story, and it holds up at the hardest difficulty setting.

Five of the ten stingiest TD-to-INT seasons since 1999 belong to one man.

Milestone

Best single-season TD-to-INT ratios since 1999 (min 300 attempts, regular season)

Rank	QB	Season	TD	INT	Ratio
1	Tom Brady	2016	28	2	14.0
2	Nick Foles	2013	27	2	13.5
3	Aaron Rodgers	2018	25	2	12.5
4	Lamar Jackson	2024	41	4	10.3
5	Aaron Rodgers	2020	48	5	9.6
6	Aaron Rodgers	2021	37	4	9.3
7	Tom Brady	2010	36	4	9.0
8	Justin Herbert	2024	23	3	7.7
9	Aaron Rodgers	2014	38	5	7.6
10	Aaron Rodgers	2011	45	6	7.5

Take every qualifying quarterback season since 1999, nearly 750 of them, and rank by touchdowns per interception. Rodgers appears five times in the top ten: 2018, 2020, 2021, 2014, and 2011. No one else appears more than twice. And his entries are not low-volume flukes: the 2020 season carried 48 touchdowns, the 2011 season 45.

Why it matters. One outlier season can be circumstance; five of the top ten across a 27-season sample is a skill signature. The list also shows what separates his entries from Brady 2016 or Foles 2013: those were sub-30-touchdown seasons, while Rodgers repeatedly paired near-zero interceptions with 37-plus touchdowns. That combination of aggression and cleanliness is the thing no other passer has repeated.

Pittsburgh, age 42

Three uniforms, one constant: 230 games of Green Bay, a broken Jets detour, then a 10-7 landing in Pittsburgh.

Trend

Career chapters (regular season)

Chapter	Games	Attempts	Yards	TD	INT
GB 2005-2022	230	7,659	59,048	475	105
NYJ 2023-2024	18	585	3,897	28	11
PIT 2025	16	498	3,322	24	7

The Jets chapter began with a torn Achilles four snaps into 2023 and never recovered. The Pittsburgh chapter, at age 41, was quietly the rebound: 65.7 percent completions, 24 touchdowns against 7 interceptions, and a 10-7 Steelers record. His 227.1 PPR points ranked 17th among quarterbacks, a startable month here and there from a man written off twice. The interception discipline of the Green Bay years survived two team changes intact: his worst chapter ratio is still 2.5 to 1.

Why it matters. Late-career chapters usually show the skill profile disintegrating in order: depth first, then accuracy, then ball security. Rodgers has lost the depth (6.1 aDOT) but the accuracy and ball security have not budged, which is why he could still pilot a 10-win team. The chapter table is the context for every 2026 question: the floor has aged far better than the ceiling.

The 24-to-7 box score aged better than the tape: 16th of 27 in efficiency per dropback in 2025.

Anomaly

2025 offensive value per dropback (EPA, min 300 dropbacks, regular season)

Rank	QB	Dropbacks	EPA per dropback
1	Drake Maye	540	+0.298
2	Jordan Love	461	+0.240
3	Matthew Stafford	617	+0.229
16	Aaron Rodgers	526	+0.030
25	Joe Flacco	432	-0.114
27	Cam Ward	592	-0.192

Rodgers finished 2025 seventh among 300-attempt passers in TD-to-INT ratio (3.43) but just 16th of 27 qualifiers in expected points added per dropback (+0.030), sandwiched between Hurts and Lamar Jackson, both of whom missed time. The gap has a simple anatomy: 6.67 yards per attempt, the league's shallowest throw depth, and an offense that traded explosiveness for safety. The touchdowns were real; the yards in between were scarce.

Why it matters. TD-to-INT measures outcomes at the ends of drives; EPA per dropback measures whether the offense actually moved. When the first is elite and the second is ordinary, the passer is protecting the ball but not stressing defenses, and that profile typically degrades quietly rather than loudly. It is the single best statistical argument that 2025 was a well-managed decline, not a renaissance.

The Brady frontier

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: the age-42 comeback has one name in the record, and it is not his. Expect a QB2, not a revival.

Every age-41+ QB season with 300+ attempts since 1999, and what followed

QB	Season	Age	TD-INT	Next-season attempts
Tom Brady	2018	41	29-11	613
Tom Brady	2019	42	24-8	610
Tom Brady	2020	43	40-12	719
Drew Brees	2020	41	24-6	0 (retired)
Tom Brady	2021	44	43-12	733
Tom Brady	2022	45	25-9	0 (retired)
Aaron Rodgers	2025	41	24-7	?

Seven times since 1999 a quarterback has thrown 300+ passes in an age-41-or-older season. Six of those seasons belong to Brady or Brees, and only Brady ever came back for another. Rodgers enters 2026 off a 2025 that was already 16th in per-dropback value with the league's shallowest throw depth, and drafters price him around pick 171, a round-15 flier. The call: if he plays, he finishes outside the top 12 quarterbacks in total PPR points in 2026. The 24-to-7 discipline keeps the floor; the 6.1-yard throw depth caps the ceiling.

Why it matters. The two forces here point the same way. The base rate says age-42 seasons barely exist, and the shape of his 2025, elite ball security on the league's shortest throws with ordinary efficiency, is what a managed decline looks like from the inside. He finished QB17 in 2025 with everything going right for 16 games; expecting a jump past twelve younger, higher-volume passers requires believing the pattern of two decades of aging QBs breaks for him.

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