The Laws › Conditions and context
Conditions and context
Wind above 15 knocks passes down
Windy days make it harder to complete passes. Once the wind gets above about 15 mph, quarterbacks start missing more throws than they would in calm conditions.
What the record says
Each bar is one season. Green bars point the same way as the overall result, pink bars point against it. Recent seasons count for more in the typical size, which is measured on the scale of the check behind this rule, so compare it across the seasons here rather than across different rules.
How we know
Wind directly perturbs ball flight on longer, higher-arcing throws, increasing incompletions, while below a certain speed the effect is small enough to be drowned out by normal play-to-play variance, which is why the relationship behaves like a threshold rather than a smooth line starting at 0 mph.
We check this the same way every time: run the claim against every season from 1999 to 2025 in the play-by-play record, one season at a time, and grade it on how often the seasons agree. This one came back the same way in 27 of 27 seasons.
The claim, stated precisely
In outdoor games, sustained wind of 15 mph or more measurably lowers pass completion percentage compared to wind below 15 mph.
Related laws
- Explains awayThe dome team in the cold, checkedMixed
- Explains awayDomes give passing a liftHolds up
- RefinesPassing efficiency decides seasonsHolds up
- Refines thisWeather trims the passing, not the playsHolds up
- Agrees with thisWind sinks the passing gameHolds up
- Agrees with thisWind is a November problemHolds up
Read the essay
- Wind Is the Only Weather That MattersCold games look dramatic and play close to normal. Wind above 15 mph quietly removes the deep third of the field.
FanIQ carries this rule into the app, where it lands on the actual players, teams, and games you are looking at.
Get FanIQ freeOpen in FanIQSources
- Brian Burke (Advanced Football Analytics)
- Claremont Colleges thesis
- Checked by FanIQ against 25 seasons of play-by-play, game, roster, and box-score records.