Fantasy: what repeats

Fumbles are not a habit

MixedReal but unreliable: it shows up in some seasons and not others.

This one is in the FanIQ library with the full rule, what makes it work, and what makes it stop.

Pointed the same way in 26 of 26 seasons, from 770 records measured.

Read the essay

Interceptions Get the Blame. Fumbles Do the Damage.Play for play, a lost fumble costs more win probability than an interception. We expected the opposite going in, and the data reversed us in every season since 1999.

FanIQ carries this one in full: the rule itself, why it works, the season-by-season record, and the related laws.