Game preview
Patriots @ Dolphins
Week 8 · 2026
Losing Miami teams are 5 and 3 at home against winning New England teams since 1999.
New England is 21-7 in Buffalo, 21-6 at the Jets and 10-17 in Miami
StorylineSince 1999 New England has won at least three of every four regular season trips to Buffalo and to the Jets, and lost 17 of 27 in Miami, where its teams have scored 622 points and allowed 623. The worst of it comes when Miami is bad: eight times a New England team with a winning record has visited a Miami team with a losing one, and Miami won five, including 29 to 28 at 2 and 11 against a 12 and 1 New England in 2004. Sunday is the ninth: New England is 4 and 3 after a 30 to 24 loss in Chicago in which Drake Maye threw for 321 yards, his second highest total this season, and Miami is 1 and 5 after a 28 to 25 win over the Jets, Jeff Hafley's first as its head coach, in which Malik Willis threw two touchdown passes, as many as in his first five games combined. New England won 33 to 27 in Miami last season to end a five-game losing run there, so the question is whether Maye's last four weeks travel, or whether Miami does to New England what it usually does at home.
New England on the road, regular season since 1999, hosts visited 10 or more times
| Host | Games | NE wins | NE losses | NE points | Host points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 27 | 10 | 17 | 622 | 623 |
| IND | 10 | 5 | 5 | 280 | 248 |
| DEN | 10 | 6 | 4 | 263 | 219 |
| BUF | 28 | 21 | 7 | 724 | 474 |
| NYJ | 27 | 21 | 6 | 682 | 448 |
Every winning New England team at a losing Miami team, regular season since 1999
| Season | Week | NE record | MIA record | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 15 | 12-1 | 2-11 | MIA 29, NE 28 | MIA |
| 2006 | 14 | 9-3 | 5-7 | MIA 21, NE 0 | MIA |
| 2007 | 7 | 6-0 | 0-6 | NE 49, MIA 28 | NE |
| 2009 | 13 | 7-4 | 5-6 | MIA 22, NE 21 | MIA |
| 2012 | 13 | 8-3 | 5-6 | NE 23, MIA 16 | NE |
| 2015 | 17 | 12-3 | 5-10 | MIA 20, NE 10 | MIA |
| 2017 | 14 | 10-2 | 5-7 | MIA 27, NE 20 | MIA |
| 2019 | 2 | 1-0 | 0-1 | NE 43, MIA 0 | NE |
| 2026 | 8 | 4-3 | 1-5 | Sunday | Sunday |
New England in Miami, last six visits
| Season | Week | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 15 | MIA 22, NE 12 | MIA |
| 2021 | 18 | MIA 33, NE 24 | MIA |
| 2022 | 1 | MIA 20, NE 7 | MIA |
| 2023 | 8 | MIA 31, NE 17 | MIA |
| 2024 | 12 | MIA 34, NE 15 | MIA |
| 2025 | 2 | NE 33, MIA 27 | NE |
Why it matters. New England's road record since 1999 is 136 and 86, and in its two other division road stadiums it wins at least three times in four. Miami is the exception, and the gap is widest in the games that look most lopsided on paper: losing Miami teams are 5 and 3 at home against winning New England teams, with three of the five wins by seven points or fewer. Sunday's records fit that pattern exactly, which is why the collisions below matter more than the standings.
Maye's passing went from 30th to first. Miami's pass defense ranks 32nd
What to watchNew England has passed like two different teams this season, and Miami is about to find out which one it gets. In Weeks 1 to 3 Maye threw one touchdown pass and six interceptions and New England ranked 30th of 32 at minus 0.251 EPA per dropback; in Weeks 4 to 7 he threw 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions and its plus 0.427 ranks first, above the plus 0.287 that led the league in 2025. Miami's pass defense allows plus 0.312 per dropback, 32nd of 32 through Week 7 after 26th in 2025, and 14 touchdown passes in six games, 2.33 per game and fifth most; the Jets posted plus 0.370 against it in Week 7 even in a Miami win. If New England's opening drive ends in a touchdown through the air, the Weeks 4 to 7 passer made the trip; if Miami intercepts Maye before halftime, it has found the Weeks 1 to 3 one.
New England's passing against Miami's pass defense, EPA per dropback
| Unit | Window | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE passing | 2026 Wks 1 to 3 | 95 | -0.251 | 30 |
| NE passing | 2026 Wks 4 to 7 | 138 | +0.427 | 1 |
| NE passing | 2025 regular season | 551 | +0.287 | 1 |
| MIA pass defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 182 | +0.312 | 32 |
| MIA pass defense | 2025 regular season | 555 | +0.126 | 26 |
| MIA pass defense | 2026 Wk 7 at NYJ | 33 | +0.370 | Not ranked |
Drake Maye by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Comp/Att | Yards | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at SEA | 23/33 | 178 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | vs PIT | 14/22 | 208 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | at JAX | 14/25 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | at BUF | 22/37 | 269 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 | vs LV | 26/34 | 374 | 4 | 0 |
| 6 | vs NYJ | 18/32 | 235 | 3 | 0 |
| 7 | at CHI | 24/31 | 321 | 2 | 1 |
Most touchdown passes allowed per game, 2026 through Week 7
| Rank | Defense | Games | TD passes allowed | Per game | Interceptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 6 | 16 | 2.67 | 4 |
| 2 | WAS | 6 | 15 | 2.50 | 3 |
| 2 | BUF | 6 | 15 | 2.50 | 3 |
| 4 | ARI | 7 | 17 | 2.43 | 3 |
| 5 | MIA | 6 | 14 | 2.33 | 4 |
| 20 | NE | 7 | 9 | 1.29 | 4 |
Why it matters. Three games and four games are both small samples, but the last four look like the passer who led the league's best passing offense in 2025, with 31 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Miami's pass defense was already 26th in 2025 and is last now, so it is the weakest place Maye has thrown since his Week 4 turn. Neither window is a baseline on its own; the game decides which one Sunday resembles.
Miami's defense allows 55 percent on third down, last in the league
What to watchMiami's defense has struggled to get off the field: opponents have converted 38 of 69 third downs, 55.1 percent, 32nd of 32 through Week 7, after 40.6 percent and 18th in 2025. Cincinnati went 9 of 13 on third down in Miami in Week 5, and the Jets went 7 of 13 against Miami in Week 7. On the other side New England's defense allows 36.1 percent, eighth, while Miami's offense converts 42.7 percent, 12th, nearly the same rate as New England's 42.9 percent, 10th. New England went 2 of 7 on third down in Chicago after 34 of 77 in its first six games. If New England converts its first two third downs, Miami's defense is in for a long afternoon; if Miami stops both, the Chicago version of New England's offense made the trip.
Third down conversion rate, both sides, passes and runs
| Unit | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | Rate | Rank of 32 | 2025 regular season | 2025 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA defense, allowed | 38 of 69 | 55.1% | 32 | 84 of 207, 40.6% | 18 |
| NE offense | 36 of 84 | 42.9% | 10 | 85 of 195, 43.6% | 6 |
| NE defense, allowed | 30 of 83 | 36.1% | 8 | 77 of 199, 38.7% | 11 |
| MIA offense | 32 of 75 | 42.7% | 12 | 68 of 192, 35.4% | 26 |
Third downs against Miami's defense by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Converted |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 6 of 12 |
| 2 | SF | 5 of 7 |
| 3 | KC | 3 of 7 |
| 4 | MIN | 8 of 17 |
| 5 | CIN | 9 of 13 |
| 7 | NYJ | 7 of 13 |
Most third downs allowed, 2026 through Week 7
| Rank | Defense | Converted | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | MIA | 38 of 69 | 55.1% |
| 31 | DAL | 46 of 85 | 54.1% |
| 30 | NO | 43 of 86 | 50.0% |
| 29 | DET | 41 of 85 | 48.2% |
Why it matters. Every third down Miami fails to stop hands the offense four more downs, and no defense has failed more often this season. New England's offense was sixth on third down in 2025 and is 10th now, so it does not need to be at its best to stay on schedule against a defense allowing more than half. Miami's own offense is 12th after 26th in 2025, which gives it a way to keep Maye on the sideline if its defense cannot.
Miami's rush has six sacks. Willis has been sacked 16 times
What to watchThe pressure in this game has mostly run one way. Miami's defense has six sacks on 182 dropbacks, 3.3 percent, 31st of 32, with none in four of its six games, after 39 sacks and a 7.0 percent rate in 2025; New England's protection allowed nine sacks in Weeks 1 to 3 and four in Weeks 4 to 7. Willis has been sacked 16 times on 167 dropbacks, 9.6 percent, 28th, and New England's defense has 17 sacks at 7.0 percent, 12th, with at least one in all seven games and three against Chicago in Week 7. If New England sacks Willis on either of Miami's first two possessions, Miami's protection is deciding the game; if Maye reaches halftime without being sacked, Miami's 31st ranked rush is the one on the field.
Sack rate, all four units
| Unit | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | Rank of 32 | 2025 regular season | 2025 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA defense, sacks made | 6 on 182, 3.3% | 31 | 39 on 555, 7.0% | 16 |
| NE offense, sacks allowed | 13 on 233, 5.6% | 14 (fewest first) | 48 on 551, 8.7% | 26 |
| NE defense, sacks made | 17 on 242, 7.0% | 12 | 35 on 562, 6.2% | 20 |
| MIA offense, sacks allowed | 16 on 167, 9.6% | 28 (fewest first) | 38 on 518, 7.3% | 18 |
Sacks by game, 2026
| Week | MIA defense made | NE offense allowed | NE defense made | MIA offense allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 vs LV | 3 at SEA | 2 at SEA | 5 at LV |
| 2 | 0 at SF | 3 vs PIT | 4 vs PIT | 4 at SF |
| 3 | 0 vs KC | 3 at JAX | 1 at JAX | 0 vs KC |
| 4 | 4 vs MIN | 1 at BUF | 1 at BUF | 2 at MIN |
| 5 | 0 vs CIN | 1 vs LV | 3 vs LV | 3 vs CIN |
| 6 | Bye | 0 vs NYJ | 3 vs NYJ | Bye |
| 7 | 2 at NYJ | 2 at CHI | 3 at CHI | 2 at NYJ |
Why it matters. Miami's rush has gone four of six games without a sack, so a clean pocket for Maye is the default, not a hope; the four sacks it allowed in Weeks 4 to 7 were part of New England's turn. Willis has been sacked on nearly one dropback in 10, and New England's rush has produced a sack in every game. Sacks on early downs create the long third downs that end drives, and Miami's defense, already last on third down, has rarely produced them.
Two of the top three scramblers face two of the six stingiest QB-run defenses
What to watchBoth quarterbacks extend plays with their legs as often as anyone: Maye's 23 scrambles are tied for the most in the league through Week 7, Willis's 22 rank third, and each has 17 first downs on his runs. Willis's 223 rushing yards are second among quarterbacks, behind only Josh Allen, and Maye's 211 are fifth; at the Jets in Week 7 Willis ran eight times for 37 yards and a touchdown and converted a fourth and 1 with two minutes left, after 186 yards on 27 carries in his first five games. The defenses they face have held quarterbacks down: Miami allows 8.2 quarterback rushing yards per game, fourth fewest, and New England 10.0, sixth fewest. If Willis converts a third down with his legs in the first half, New England's contain has broken; if Maye does it first, Miami's has.
Most scrambles by quarterbacks, 2026 through Week 7
| Rank | Quarterback | Team | Scrambles | First downs on runs | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | NE | 23 | 17 | 30 |
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 23 | 14 | 42 |
| 3 | Malik Willis | MIA | 22 | 17 | 33 |
| 4 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 19 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 19 | 7 | 29 |
| 6 | Josh Allen | BUF | 17 | 26 | 40 |
Quarterback rushing yards, 2026 through Week 7
| Rank | Quarterback | Team | Carries | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 48 | 240 | 8 |
| 2 | Malik Willis | MIA | 35 | 223 | 3 |
| 3 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 48 | 215 | 1 |
| 4 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 25 | 213 | 2 |
| 5 | Drake Maye | NE | 38 | 211 | 2 |
Fewest quarterback rushing yards allowed per game, 2026 through Week 7
| Rank | Defense | Games | Yards allowed | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 7 | 32 | 4.6 |
| 2 | SF | 7 | 42 | 6.0 |
| 3 | HOU | 7 | 52 | 7.4 |
| 4 | MIA | 6 | 49 | 8.2 |
| 5 | CLE | 7 | 69 | 9.9 |
| 6 | NE | 7 | 70 | 10.0 |
Why it matters. Scrambles are the counter to a pass rush, so they matter most for Willis, who has been sacked more often than most and has turned 22 dropbacks into scrambles. Maye's 23 scrambles give New England a second answer on the plays where Miami's rush does get home. Both defenses have kept quarterbacks to small rushing totals, which makes the quarterback who first breaks contain the one most likely to swing a close game.
FanIQ answers any NFL stats question with receipts, on your phone.
Get FanIQ freeGet it on Google Play