Game preview
Chiefs @ Broncos
Week 8 · 2026
The Chiefs beat Denver by 21 in Week 1, and they have lost three straight in Denver.
Chiefs won the opener by 21. Denver has won the last three in Denver
StorylineKansas City opened the season by beating Denver 31 to 10 at Arrowhead, and seven weeks later the two meet for first place in the AFC West: the Chiefs are 5 and 1, the Broncos 5 and 2 with three straight wins. Last week split them. Kansas City lost 20 to 3 in Seattle, its 3 points tied for the fewest in 153 games Patrick Mahomes has played for the Chiefs, playoffs included, at minus 0.105 EPA per play after plus 0.035 across 2025, while Denver won 30 to 16 in Arizona at plus 0.202 per play after plus 0.050 across 2025. Now the Chiefs go to the one building that has stopped them: the Broncos are 11 and 1 at home in the regular season since the start of 2025, the best home record in the league, and they have won the last three meetings in Denver after Kansas City won eight straight there, so which Kansas City makes the trip, the one that ran for 224 yards on Denver in September or the one that managed a field goal in Seattle?
Kansas City at Denver since 2015, regular season
| Season | Week | Score | Winner | KC passer (most attempts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 10 | KC 29, DEN 13 | KC | Alex Smith |
| 2016 | 12 | KC 30, DEN 27 | KC | Alex Smith |
| 2017 | 17 | KC 27, DEN 24 | KC | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2018 | 4 | KC 27, DEN 23 | KC | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2019 | 7 | KC 30, DEN 6 | KC | Matt Moore |
| 2020 | 7 | KC 43, DEN 16 | KC | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2021 | 18 | KC 28, DEN 24 | KC | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2022 | 14 | KC 34, DEN 28 | KC | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2023 | 8 | DEN 24, KC 9 | DEN | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2024 | 18 | DEN 38, KC 0 | DEN | Carson Wentz |
| 2025 | 11 | DEN 22, KC 19 | DEN | Patrick Mahomes |
Best home records, regular season, 2025 and 2026 through Week 7 (listed home team)
| Rank | Team | Home games | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| 2 | JAX | 13 | 10 | 3 |
| 3 | NE | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| 3 | PIT | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| 3 | SEA | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| 3 | SF | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| 10 | KC | 12 | 8 | 4 |
Fewest Kansas City points in a game Mahomes played, 2017 to 2026 (153 games, playoffs included)
| Season | Week | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7 | at TEN | TEN 27, KC 3 |
| 2026 | 7 | at SEA | SEA 20, KC 3 |
| 2020 | Super Bowl | TB | TB 31, KC 9 |
| 2023 | 8 | at DEN | DEN 24, KC 9 |
Both offenses, EPA per play (pass and run plays)
| Team | 2026 Week 7 | 2026 Weeks 1 to 6 | 2025 regular season |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | -0.105 (24th of 28) | +0.155 (5th of 32) | +0.035 (11th) |
| DEN | +0.202 (7th of 28) | -0.079 (25th of 32) | +0.050 (10th) |
Why it matters. The division lead goes to the winner, and the two teams arrive heading in opposite directions off one game each. Kansas City's offense was fifth in the league through six weeks before Seattle held it to a field goal; Denver's was 25th before its best game of the season in Arizona. Denver has turned its home field into the league's hardest place to win since 2025, and two of its three straight home wins over Kansas City came in games Mahomes started. One week is one week on both sides, which is why the collisions below matter more than the last score.
Walker ran for 173 on Denver in Week 1. Nobody has reached 89 since
What to watchKansas City won the opener on the ground: 224 rushing yards on 35 runs, the most Denver has allowed in any game this season, with Kenneth Walker III carrying 23 times for 173. Since then no player has run for more than 88 yards against Denver, though its run defense still ranks only 21st by EPA per carry over those six games, while Kansas City's 5.53 yards per carry lead the league. In Seattle the Chiefs ran just 16 times after 139 runs in their first five games, and Walker finished with 36 yards on 14 carries after 665 yards on 106 carries in those five. If Kansas City has run on half of its first-quarter snaps, it is playing the Week 1 game again; if Mahomes is throwing on most early downs, Denver has the game it wants.
Kansas City's run offense and Denver's run defense, 2026 (scrambles included)
| Unit | Window | Runs | Yards per carry | EPA per carry | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC offense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 155 | 5.53 (1st) | +0.125 | 2 |
| KC offense | 2025 regular season | 417 | 4.38 | +0.027 | 6 |
| DEN defense | 2026 Wk 1 at KC | 35 | 6.40 | +0.366 | Single game |
| DEN defense | 2026 Wks 2 to 7 | 164 | 4.36 | -0.040 | 21 |
| DEN defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 199 | 4.72 | +0.031 | 27 |
| DEN defense | 2025 regular season | 397 | 3.91 | -0.043 | 10 |
Leading rusher against Denver, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Player | Rush yards | Team rush yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at KC | Kenneth Walker III | 173 | 224 |
| 2 | JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 65 | 95 |
| 3 | LA | Kyren Williams | 88 | 116 |
| 4 | at SF | Christian McCaffrey | 52 | 142 |
| 5 | at LAC | Kimani Vidal | 57 | 155 |
| 6 | SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 52 | 113 |
| 7 | at ARI | Bam Knight | 48 | 94 |
Kenneth Walker III by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yards | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs DEN | 23 | 173 | 1 |
| 2 | vs IND | 24 | 117 | 0 |
| 3 | at MIA | 18 | 70 | 1 |
| 4 | at LV | 22 | 177 | 2 |
| 6 | vs LAC | 19 | 128 | 2 |
| 7 | at SEA | 14 | 36 | 0 |
Why it matters. Kansas City's offense is built on the league's most efficient yards per carry, and Denver's defense gives up its yards on the ground: it ranks fourth against the pass and 27th against the run by EPA. Without the opener, Denver's run defense looks like a middle-of-the-pack unit that has kept every back under 89 yards, so Week 1 is either the matchup or an outlier. Seattle showed what happens when the Chiefs stop running: 16 runs, 3 points.
Kansas City won Week 1 without solving Denver's pass defense
What to watchThe 31 to 10 opener hid a stalemate through the air: Mahomes went 15 of 27 for 184 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, and Kansas City averaged minus 0.079 EPA per pass play. Denver's pass defense allows minus 0.107 per pass play, fourth of 32, after sixth in 2025, and its 21 sacks rank seventh by rate, led by Zach Allen with 4.5 sacks and 17 quarterback hits; the Week 8 injury report lists Allen as limited in practice with a hamstring. Kansas City allows a sack on 3.5 percent of dropbacks, third fewest, after 7.4 percent and 21st in 2025, yet in Seattle Mahomes went 19 of 33 for 165 yards with no touchdown and an interception, minus 0.178 per pass play after plus 0.173 through six weeks. If Mahomes completes a pass of 20 yards or more on Kansas City's first two possessions, the Seattle game was the outlier; if Allen or Nik Bonitto reaches him first, Kansas City is back to needing the run.
Kansas City's passing against Denver's pass defense, EPA per pass play (sacks included)
| Unit | Window | Pass plays | EPA per pass play | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC passing | 2026 Wk 1 vs DEN | 29 | -0.079 | Single game |
| KC passing | 2026 Wk 7 at SEA | 34 | -0.178 | Single game |
| KC passing | 2026 Wks 1 to 6 | 165 | +0.173 | Not ranked |
| KC passing | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 199 | +0.113 | 11 |
| KC passing | 2025 regular season | 631 | +0.040 | 14 |
| DEN pass defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 280 | -0.107 | 4 |
| DEN pass defense | 2025 regular season | 658 | -0.115 | 6 |
Sack rate, Denver's rush against Kansas City's protection
| Unit | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | Rank of 32 | 2025 regular season | 2025 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN defense, sacks made | 21 on 280, 7.5% | 7 | 68 on 658, 10.3% | 1 |
| KC offense, sacks allowed | 7 on 199, 3.5% | 3 (fewest first) | 47 on 631, 7.4% | 21 (fewest first) |
Patrick Mahomes by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Comp-Att | Yards | TD | INT | Sacked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs DEN | 15 of 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | vs IND | 32 of 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | at MIA | 20 of 24 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | at LV | 15 of 30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | vs LAC | 23 of 30 | 272 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | at SEA | 19 of 33 | 165 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Denver's sack leaders, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Player | Sacks | QB hits |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Allen | 4.5 | 17 |
| Nik Bonitto | 3.5 | 9 |
| Malcolm Roach | 2.5 | 11 |
Why it matters. Kansas City beat Denver in September by running, not by throwing, and Denver's pass defense has stayed top five since. Kansas City's protection has cut its sack rate by more than half from 2025, which is what lets Mahomes test a secondary that held him to 184 yards. Allen carries Denver's rush; a limited practice line is a status, not an outcome, so his snaps on Sunday are part of the watch.
Denver had no 20-yard plays at Arrowhead in Week 1. It had five in Arizona
What to watchDenver's offense runs on a handful of big plays: 16 gains of 20 yards or more in seven games, 2.29 a game, 29th in the league, after 3.41 a game and 15th in 2025, and none came in the opener, when it posted minus 0.344 EPA per play, last of 32 that week. Arizona saw the other version: five gains of 20 or more, including Bo Nix's 62-yard touchdown scramble and RJ Harvey's 52-yard touchdown catch, and plus 0.202 per play, Denver's best game of the season. Around those plays Nix averages 5.83 yards per attempt, 29th of 32 passers with 100 attempts, after 6.42 in 2025, and Denver converts 32.6 percent of third downs, 30th, after 42.7 percent and ninth in 2025; Kansas City's defense allows 3.00 gains of 20 or more a game, eighth fewest, but ranks 21st on third down at 43.0 percent. If Denver has a 20-yard gain in the first quarter, the Arizona offense made the trip; if its first two third downs fail, Kansas City is getting the September version.
Gains of 20 yards or more, pass and run plays
| Unit | Window | Games | Gains of 20 plus | Per game | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN offense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 7 | 16 | 2.29 | 29 |
| DEN offense | 2025 regular season | 17 | 58 | 3.41 | 15 |
| KC defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 6 | 18 | 3.00 | 8 (fewest first) |
| KC defense | 2025 regular season | 17 | 50 | 2.94 | 7 (fewest first) |
Denver's offense by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Result | Gains of 20 plus | EPA per play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at KC | L 10-31 | 0 | -0.344 |
| 2 | JAX | W 20-13 | 5 | +0.124 |
| 3 | LA | W 30-26 | 3 | -0.007 |
| 4 | at SF | L 14-24 | 2 | +0.089 |
| 5 | at LAC | W 23-17 | 1 | -0.271 |
| 6 | SEA | W 17-14 | 0 | -0.144 |
| 7 | at ARI | W 30-16 | 5 | +0.202 |
Yards per attempt, passers with 100 attempts, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank | Passer | Team | Attempts | Yards per attempt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 171 | 8.80 |
| 2 | Drake Maye | NE | 214 | 8.34 |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 191 | 7.72 |
| 29 | Bo Nix | DEN | 218 | 5.83 |
| 32 | Cam Ward | TEN | 208 | 5.67 |
Third-down conversion rate
| Unit | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | Rank of 32 | 2025 regular season | 2025 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN offense | 29 of 89, 32.6% | 30 | 99 of 232, 42.7% | 9 |
| KC defense | 37 of 86, 43.0% | 21 (lowest first) | 98 of 222, 44.1% | 28 (lowest first) |
Why it matters. Denver's offense has been short on yards per throw all season, so its good days are the days the long plays come. Kansas City's defense limits those plays better than most, which is what made the opener Denver's worst game, but it lets opponents convert third downs at an average-or-worse rate, the other way Denver can sustain a drive. Arizona is one game against a defense that ranks 27th by EPA per play; the 2.29 a game is the larger sample.
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