Game preview
Colts @ Jaguars
Week 8 · 2026
The Colts have lost 10 straight in Jacksonville, and Jonathan Taylor has never run for 100 there.
Ten straight Colts losses in Jacksonville, and the passers have swapped places
StorylineThe Colts have not won in Jacksonville since a 44-17 game on September 21, 2014: they have lost all 10 visits since, outscored 312 to 150, and only Pittsburgh's 22 straight home wins over Cleveland and Philadelphia's 12 over the Giants are longer active runs over one visitor. This year the two passers have traded places: Daniel Jones had a 100.2 rating in 2025, ninth of 36 passers with 200 attempts, and has a 69.4 rating now, 31st of 32 with 100 attempts, after 13 of 22 for 108 yards in a 16-10 loss at Minnesota, while Trevor Lawrence went from 91.0 and 20th to 106.2 and fifth, with 306 yards and four touchdown passes in a 34-31 loss to Houston at Wembley before the bye. Jacksonville, 4-2, plays in Jacksonville for the first time in 35 days after two London games and a week off, having won both of its games there this season 69 to 16 combined; Indianapolis is 2-5 with three straight losses. Sunday asks whether any part of the Colts' game can win in the one stadium where nothing has worked since 2014.
Colts at Jacksonville, regular season, since their last win there
| Season | Week | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3 | IND 44, JAX 17 |
| 2015 | 14 | JAX 51, IND 16 |
| 2017 | 13 | JAX 30, IND 10 |
| 2018 | 13 | JAX 6, IND 0 |
| 2019 | 17 | JAX 38, IND 20 |
| 2020 | 1 | JAX 27, IND 20 |
| 2021 | 18 | JAX 26, IND 11 |
| 2022 | 2 | JAX 24, IND 0 |
| 2023 | 6 | JAX 37, IND 20 |
| 2024 | 5 | JAX 37, IND 34 |
| 2025 | 14 | JAX 36, IND 19 |
Longest active runs of home wins over one visiting team, regular season since 1999 (neutral sites excluded)
| Rank | Home team | Visitor | Straight home wins | First win | Latest win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | CLE | 22 | 2004 | 2025 |
| 2 | PHI | NYG | 12 | 2014 | 2025 |
| 3 | JAX | IND | 10 | 2015 | 2025 |
| 3 | MIA | NYJ | 10 | 2016 | 2025 |
| 5 | ATL | ARI | 9 | 1999 | 2022 |
| 5 | BUF | MIA | 9 | 2017 | 2025 |
| 5 | DAL | NYG | 9 | 2017 | 2025 |
| 5 | MIN | ARI | 9 | 2000 | 2024 |
The two passers, 2025 regular season and 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Passer | Window | Attempts | Yards | TD | INT | Rating | Rating rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 2025 | 384 | 3,101 | 19 | 8 | 100.2 | 9 of 36 |
| Daniel Jones | 2026 | 240 | 1,398 | 4 | 7 | 69.4 | 31 of 32 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2025 | 560 | 4,007 | 29 | 12 | 91.0 | 20 of 36 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2026 | 184 | 1,480 | 14 | 4 | 106.2 | 5 of 32 |
Where each team stands, 2026
| Team | Record | Points for | Points against | Last game | EPA per dropback, last game | EPA per dropback, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 2-5 | 154 | 180 | L 16-10 at MIN, Wk 7 | -0.299 | +0.056 |
| JAX | 4-2 | 154 | 104 | L 34-31 vs HOU at Wembley, Wk 6 | +0.278 | +0.059 |
Why it matters. Only two active runs of home wins over one visitor are longer than Jacksonville's over Indianapolis, and the passing matchup has flipped since 2025: Jones went from ninth in rating to 31st while Lawrence climbed from 20th to fifth. Each team's latest game shows the same split, Jacksonville's passing at plus 0.278 per dropback against Houston and the Colts' at minus 0.299 in Minnesota, both well apart from their 2025 rates of plus 0.059 and plus 0.056. One game is one game, but six and seven game samples point the same way. The Colts need something other than the pass to end the run, and the collisions below test what that could be.
No rusher has topped 56 yards on Jacksonville. Taylor has eight touchdowns
What to watchThe Colts' best weapon runs straight into Jacksonville's best unit. Jonathan Taylor has eight rushing touchdowns, tied for the league lead, and 587 yards on 140 carries, 4.19 a carry after 4.91 across 2025, behind a run offense that ranks sixth in expected points per carry; Jacksonville allows 72.2 rushing yards a game and 3.33 a carry, both first, and no player has run for more than 56 yards against it in six games, the lowest single game high of any defense, after it ranked seventh in yards per carry in 2025. Taylor's own history in Jacksonville points the same way: 246 yards on 62 carries and one touchdown in five games there, against 616 yards on 106 carries in four home games against the Jaguars. If Taylor's first quarter carries are gaining four yards or more, the Colts can keep Jones in short third downs; if Indianapolis is throwing on first down by the second quarter, Jacksonville has taken away the one Colts unit that ranks in the top 10 by EPA.
Fewest opponent rushing yards per game, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank | Defense | Games | Rushing yards allowed | Per game | Most by one rusher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 6 | 433 | 72.2 | 56 |
| 2 | TB | 7 | 541 | 77.3 | 58 |
| 3 | CHI | 7 | 613 | 87.6 | 105 |
| 4 | ATL | 7 | 622 | 88.9 | 102 |
| 5 | SF | 7 | 623 | 89.0 | 90 |
Jonathan Taylor against Jacksonville, regular season, by site
| Season | Week | Site | Carries | Rush yards | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | Jacksonville | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| 2021 | 18 | Jacksonville | 15 | 77 | 0 |
| 2022 | 2 | Jacksonville | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| 2023 | 6 | Jacksonville | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| 2025 | 14 | Jacksonville | 21 | 74 | 1 |
| 5 games | Jacksonville | 62 | 246 | 1 | |
| 2020 | 17 | Indianapolis | 30 | 253 | 2 |
| 2021 | 10 | Indianapolis | 21 | 116 | 1 |
| 2024 | 18 | Indianapolis | 34 | 177 | 1 |
| 2025 | 17 | Indianapolis | 21 | 70 | 1 |
| 4 games | Indianapolis | 106 | 616 | 5 |
Rushing touchdown leaders, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Player | Team | Carries | Rush yards | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 140 | 587 | 8 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 110 | 472 | 8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 84 | 389 | 8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 48 | 240 | 8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 134 | 620 | 7 |
Colts run offense against Jaguars run defense, two windows
| Unit | Window | Carries | Yards per carry | EPA per carry | EPA rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND offense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 198 | 4.17 | +0.053 | 6 |
| IND offense | 2025 regular season | 431 | 4.69 | +0.094 | 3 |
| JAX defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 131 | 3.33 (1st) | -0.137 | 2 |
| JAX defense | 2025 regular season | 359 | 4.09 (7th) | -0.040 | 13 |
Why it matters. With the Colts' passing ranked 29th by EPA per dropback, Taylor's carries are the part of the offense that has worked, and his eight rushing touchdowns are twice the Colts' four touchdown passes. Jacksonville's run defense has gone from 13th by EPA in 2025 to second, and in six games no back has reached even 57 yards against it. Taylor has averaged 3.97 a carry in five games in Jacksonville, with a best of 77 yards, and 5.81 in four home games against the Jaguars, so the site has followed him too.
The Colts have given the ball away 12 times. Jacksonville has taken it 10
What to watchIndianapolis has turned the ball over in six of seven games, 12 giveaways against three takeaways, and its minus 9 margin is last in the league after an even margin, 14th, in 2025; Jacksonville has taken the ball away 10 times, in five of its six games, for a plus 5 margin that ranks fourth after plus 14 and second in 2025. Daniel Jones has seven interceptions on 240 attempts after eight on 384 in 2025, and the Colts' four touchdown passes are tied for the fewest in the league. Two of the four went to Tyler Warren, who took no snaps in Weeks 6 and 7; the Week 7 injury report listed him Out with a groin injury, the Week 8 practice report lists him as limited, and without him Jones went 35 of 64 for 377 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions and 10 sacks. If the Colts reach halftime without a giveaway, they have done that in two of seven games; if Jacksonville has a takeaway by the break, it is the start it has had in four of six.
Turnover margin, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7, the top and the bottom
| Rank of 32 | Team | Giveaways | Takeaways | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 4 | 11 | +7 |
| 2 | DEN | 6 | 12 | +6 |
| 2 | KC | 4 | 10 | +6 |
| 4 | JAX | 5 | 10 | +5 |
| 4 | LV | 8 | 13 | +5 |
| 4 | WAS | 3 | 8 | +5 |
| 28 | LA | 11 | 6 | -5 |
| 28 | LAC | 14 | 9 | -5 |
| 28 | NO | 14 | 9 | -5 |
| 31 | NE | 14 | 7 | -7 |
| 32 | IND | 12 | 3 | -9 |
Turnovers by game, 2026 (first half in brackets)
| Week | Colts giveaways | Jaguars takeaways |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 (2) vs BAL | 2 (2) vs CLE |
| 2 | 1 (1) at KC | 2 (2) at DEN |
| 3 | 3 (1) vs HOU | 3 (2) vs NE |
| 4 | 2 (2) vs WAS | 2 (1) at CIN |
| 5 | 0 (0) at PIT | 0 (0) vs PHI |
| 6 | 3 (1) vs TEN | 1 (0) vs HOU |
| 7 | 1 (0) at MIN | Bye |
Daniel Jones with and without Tyler Warren, 2026
| Weeks | Warren | Completions | Attempts | Yards | TD | INT | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 5 | Played | 108 | 176 | 1,021 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 and 7 | No snaps | 35 | 64 | 377 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
Why it matters. The Colts' giveaways have not decided every result, since both of their wins came in games with two or more, but a minus 9 margin leaves almost no room in a building where they have lost 10 straight. Jacksonville's defense was second in the league in turnover margin in 2025 and is fourth now, so Jones faces a unit that takes the ball away most weeks. Warren's limited practice line matters because half of the team's touchdown passes went to him, and the two games without him had more sacks and nearly as many interceptions as the five with him.
Lawrence's passing ranks second. The Colts' third-down defense ranks third
What to watchJacksonville throws as well as almost anyone: plus 0.275 expected points per dropback, second of 32 behind Detroit, after plus 0.059 and 11th in 2025, with one negative game in six, at Denver in Week 2. Trevor Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes and four interceptions, Parker Washington leads the team with 416 receiving yards and four touchdown catches, and Jakobi Meyers, second with 285 yards, is listed as limited with a hamstring in the Week 8 practice report; Jacksonville converts 48.6 percent of third downs, fifth, after 40.3 percent and 18th in 2025. The Colts' answer is third down, where opponents convert 30.4 percent, third in the league, after 43.1 percent and 26th in 2025, even though they allow plus 0.050 per dropback overall, 18th; the Week 7 injury report listed Sauce Gardner Out with a calf injury, and the Week 8 practice report lists him as a full participant. If the Colts force a punt on third down on either of Jacksonville's first two possessions, the 30 percent defense is on the field; if Jacksonville converts its first two third downs, Lawrence is facing the 18th ranked pass defense instead.
Passing EPA per dropback, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank of 32 | Offense | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 235 | +0.295 |
| 2 | JAX | 194 | +0.275 |
| 3 | SF | 217 | +0.247 |
| 3 | BUF | 186 | +0.247 |
| 5 | CIN | 229 | +0.200 |
Third-down conversion rate, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Side | Rank of 32 | Team | Third-down plays | Converted | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 1 | CIN | 77 | 40 | 51.9% |
| Offense | 2 | BUF | 61 | 31 | 50.8% |
| Offense | 3 | DAL | 85 | 43 | 50.6% |
| Offense | 4 | SF | 76 | 38 | 50.0% |
| Offense | 5 | JAX | 72 | 35 | 48.6% |
| Defense | 1 | CHI | 69 | 18 | 26.1% |
| Defense | 2 | MIN | 78 | 23 | 29.5% |
| Defense | 3 | IND | 79 | 24 | 30.4% |
| Defense | 4 | LAC | 72 | 23 | 31.9% |
| Defense | 5 | LA | 87 | 28 | 32.2% |
Jacksonville passing by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Lawrence | Yards | TD | INT | EPA per dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 18 of 23 | 245 | 4 | 0 | +0.793 |
| 2 | at DEN | 17 of 29 | 189 | 0 | 1 | -0.133 |
| 3 | NE | 19 of 29 | 182 | 3 | 1 | +0.263 |
| 4 | at CIN | 18 of 23 | 227 | 1 | 0 | +0.332 |
| 5 | PHI (London) | 24 of 39 | 331 | 2 | 1 | +0.248 |
| 6 | HOU (London) | 24 of 41 | 306 | 4 | 1 | +0.278 |
Both units, two windows
| Unit | Measure | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | Rank | 2025 regular season | 2025 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX offense | EPA per dropback | +0.275 | 2 | +0.059 | 11 |
| IND defense | EPA per dropback allowed | +0.050 | 18 | +0.040 | 19 |
| JAX offense | Third downs converted | 48.6% | 5 | 40.3% | 18 |
| IND defense | Third downs allowed | 30.4% | 3 | 43.1% | 26 |
Why it matters. Jacksonville's passing has been top three by EPA after ranking 11th in 2025, and it has been positive in five of six games, so the Colts' best chance is on one down rather than every down. Their defense has allowed an ordinary rate per dropback in both seasons but has jumped from 26th to third on third down, which is where it can end Jacksonville drives. Jacksonville's own third-down rate climbed from 18th to fifth at the same time, so the down that decides drives is where both teams have changed most.
Three backs have run for 100 on the Colts. No Jaguar has topped 73
What to watchJacksonville's run game is steady rather than big: it has run for between 95 and 137 yards in every game, and Bhayshul Tuten leads it with 388 yards on 94 carries, 4.13 a carry after 3.7 in 2025, without a game above 73 yards. The Colts are where steady runs have turned big: Derrick Henry with 144, Kenneth Walker III with 117 and Jaylen Warren with 101 have each passed 100 against them, the second most 100-yard games allowed behind New Orleans' four, and Indianapolis allows 5.02 yards a carry, 29th, after 3.98 and third in 2025. Minnesota ran 27 times for 138 yards in Week 7 yet averaged minus 0.159 expected points per carry, so the yards and the damage have not always arrived together. If Tuten's first quarter carries are gaining four yards or more, Jacksonville can lean on the ground and keep Taylor on the sideline; if he is stopped short early, the game moves back to Lawrence and third down.
Most yards per carry allowed, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank of 32 | Defense | Carries faced | Yards per carry | EPA per carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | NYG | 181 | 4.98 | +0.020 |
| 29 | IND | 175 | 5.02 | +0.044 |
| 30 | NO | 193 | 5.11 | +0.071 |
| 31 | LV | 192 | 5.29 | -0.036 |
| 32 | CAR | 174 | 5.31 | +0.054 |
Games allowing a 100-yard rusher, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank of 32 | Defense | Games | 100-yard games allowed | Most by one rusher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 7 | 4 | 156 |
| 2 | IND | 7 | 3 | 144 |
| 3 | MIA | 6 | 2 | 104 |
| 3 | CAR | 6 | 2 | 124 |
| 3 | CLE | 7 | 2 | 129 |
| 3 | DET | 6 | 2 | 135 |
Colts run defense by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Runs | Yards | EPA per carry | 100-yard rusher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 34 | 205 | +0.280 | Derrick Henry, 24 for 144 |
| 2 | at KC | 29 | 152 | +0.153 | Kenneth Walker III, 24 for 117 |
| 3 | HOU | 21 | 70 | -0.077 | None |
| 4 | WAS (London) | 22 | 100 | -0.263 | None |
| 5 | at PIT | 20 | 129 | +0.419 | Jaylen Warren, 15 for 101 |
| 6 | TEN | 22 | 85 | -0.133 | None |
| 7 | at MIN | 27 | 138 | -0.159 | None |
Jacksonville's run game by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Team carries | Team rush yards | Tuten |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 32 | 126 | 15 for 66 |
| 2 | at DEN | 24 | 95 | 13 for 65 |
| 3 | NE | 30 | 137 | 15 for 73 |
| 4 | at CIN | 27 | 111 | 17 for 73 |
| 5 | PHI (London) | 27 | 102 | 22 for 72 |
| 6 | HOU (London) | 27 | 106 | 12 for 39 |
Jaguars run offense against Colts run defense, two windows
| Unit | Window | Yards per carry | Rank | EPA per carry | EPA rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX offense | 2026 Wks 1 to 6 | 4.24 | 16 | +0.011 | 11 |
| JAX offense | 2025 regular season | 4.20 | 27 | -0.004 | 17 |
| IND defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 5.02 | 29 | +0.044 | 28 |
| IND defense | 2025 regular season | 3.98 | 3 | -0.050 | 9 |
Why it matters. The Colts' run defense was third in yards per carry in 2025 and is 29th now, and three of its seven opponents have had a 100-yard back. Jacksonville has not needed a big rushing day to score 154 points in six games, but a steady run game against a defense that gives up 5.02 a carry is how it keeps the ball, and a long Jacksonville drive on the ground is time Taylor spends on the sideline. Jacksonville's backs have been ordinary in both seasons by EPA, so this is a middle-of-the-league run game meeting a bottom five run defense.
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