Game preview
Ravens @ Bills
Week 8 · 2026
The Ravens are back in Buffalo, where they led 40 to 25 with five minutes left last year and lost.
The Ravens lost their last two trips to Buffalo by three points combined
StorylineBaltimore is 1-5 in Buffalo since 1999, playoffs included, and the last two losses came by a combined three points: 27 to 25 in the divisional round after the 2024 season, then 41 to 40 in the 2025 opener, when the Ravens led 40 to 25 with five minutes left and Buffalo scored the last 16 points. Lamar Jackson leads every passer with 100 or more dropbacks in EPA per dropback this season, but he has not thrown a pass since Week 4; Tyler Huntley started the last three games, Baltimore went 1-2, and Week 7 ended in a 35 to 13 home loss to Cincinnati. Buffalo is 5-1 out of its bye, scoring a league-high 32.8 points per game and allowing 28.5, the third most, with every one of its six games decided by 10 points or fewer. Sunday asks whether Baltimore can hold a game in Buffalo all the way to the final whistle, against an offense that has scored at least 24 in every game.
Baltimore in Buffalo since 1999, playoffs included
| Season | Game | Score | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Week 7 | BUF 19, BAL 14 | BUF by 5 |
| 2013 | Week 4 | BUF 23, BAL 20 | BUF by 3 |
| 2019 | Week 14 | BAL 24, BUF 17 | BAL by 7 |
| 2020 | Divisional | BUF 17, BAL 3 | BUF by 14 |
| 2024 | Divisional | BUF 27, BAL 25 | BUF by 2 |
| 2025 | Week 1 | BUF 41, BAL 40 | BUF by 1 |
The 2025 opener in Buffalo, fourth quarter scoring
| Clock | Team | Play | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:56 | BUF | Josh Allen 2-yard TD run, two-point pass intercepted | BAL 34, BUF 25 |
| 11:50 | BAL | Derrick Henry 46-yard TD run, extra point no good | BAL 40, BUF 25 |
| 4:05 | BUF | Allen 10-yard TD pass, extra point good | BAL 40, BUF 32 |
| 2:00 | BUF | Allen 1-yard TD run, two-point pass incomplete | BAL 40, BUF 38 |
| 0:03 | BUF | Matt Prater 32-yard field goal | BUF 41, BAL 40 |
2026 so far
| Week | Baltimore | Ravens passer (most dropbacks) | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W 41-23 at IND | Lamar Jackson | W 36-31 at HOU |
| 2 | L 17-24 vs NO | Lamar Jackson | W 41-31 vs DET |
| 3 | W 34-31 at DAL | Lamar Jackson | W 24-16 vs LAC |
| 4 | W 24-18 vs TEN | Lamar Jackson (Huntley 9 dropbacks) | L 26-29 vs NE |
| 5 | W 30-23 at ATL (OT) | Tyler Huntley | W 37-34 at LA (OT) |
| 6 | L 10-13 at CLE | Tyler Huntley | W 33-30 at LV |
| 7 | L 13-35 vs CIN | Tyler Huntley | Bye |
Why it matters. Jackson has started six games against Josh Allen, playoffs included, and is 2-4, 1-3 in Buffalo, and the 2025 loss there was decided by a field goal with three seconds left. Baltimore comes in 4-3 with its quarterback picture in flux after three Huntley starts, while Buffalo's 5-1 has been built on outscoring people: no team scores more, and only two allow more. A close game is the likeliest shape, and close games in Buffalo are the ones Baltimore has lost.
Jackson leads every passer in EPA per dropback. Buffalo's pass defense is 29th
What to watchBaltimore with Jackson and Baltimore without him have been two different passing offenses. Jackson averaged plus 0.365 EPA per dropback over Weeks 1 to 4, first of 34 passers with 100 or more dropbacks, after plus 0.020 across the 2025 regular season; Huntley has averaged plus 0.039 on 117 dropbacks, 18th, though he threw for 298 yards against Cincinnati with Zay Flowers catching passes for 137. The Week 7 injury report listed Jackson Out with an ankle, and the Week 8 practice report lists him at Full Participation in Practice. Buffalo's pass defense allows plus 0.215 EPA per dropback, 29th of 32 after seventh in 2025, has allowed plus 0.28 or worse in four of six games, and its 4.3 percent sack rate ranks 27th, so it has not been able to speed passers up. If Baltimore completes a pass of 20 yards or more on either of its first two drives, Buffalo's coverage is playing like its 2026 numbers; if both drives end in punts, it looks like the unit that ranked seventh last season.
EPA per dropback, passers with 100 or more dropbacks, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank | Passer | Team | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 101 | +0.365 |
| 2 | Jared Goff | DET | 235 | +0.295 |
| 3 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 194 | +0.275 |
| 4 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 136 | +0.273 |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | SF | 217 | +0.247 |
| 6 | Josh Allen | BUF | 186 | +0.247 |
| 18 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | 117 | +0.039 |
Baltimore's passing against Buffalo's pass defense
| Unit | Window | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback | Rank of 32 | Sack rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL passing | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 219 | +0.186 | 6 | 8.2% |
| BAL passing | 2025 regular season | 466 | -0.035 | 24 | 9.7% |
| BUF pass defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 6 | 255 | +0.215 | 29 | 4.3% (27th) |
| BUF pass defense | 2025 regular season | 505 | -0.114 | 7 | 7.1% (15th) |
Buffalo's pass defense by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 41 | +0.036 | 3 |
| 2 | DET | 42 | +0.442 | 4 |
| 3 | LAC | 36 | -0.177 | 2 |
| 4 | NE | 39 | +0.283 | 1 |
| 5 | LA | 56 | +0.330 | 1 |
| 6 | LV | 41 | +0.280 | 0 |
Why it matters. Jackson's four games are a small sample set beside a 2025 season in which he averaged plus 0.020, but they are the best in the league, and Buffalo's coverage has gone from seventh to 29th. Huntley's 117 dropbacks rank 18th. Which passer Baltimore puts on the field, and how he handles a pass rush that ranks 27th by sack rate, decides whether Baltimore can keep pace with a Buffalo offense scoring 32.8 per game.
No one since 1999 has run for more touchdowns against Buffalo than Henry
What to watchNo player since 1999 has more rushing touchdowns against Buffalo than Derrick Henry: 11 in eight games, playoffs included, with 199 yards in 2024 and 169 more in the 2025 opener for Baltimore. He arrives off his two lowest yardage games of 2026, 58 at Cleveland and 45 against Cincinnati, after averaging 93.8 yards per game across the 2025 regular season. Baltimore's run offense ranked second by EPA per carry in 2025 and ranks 14th through Week 7, while Buffalo's run defense is 23rd by the same measure after 30th in 2025, even though its 3.90 yards per carry allowed rank eighth. If Henry has 10 carries by halftime, Baltimore is leaning on the back who has scored 11 times against Buffalo; if he has fewer than five, the game is on the quarterback's arm.
Most rushing touchdowns against Buffalo since 1999, playoffs included
| Rank | Player | Games | Carries | Yards | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 8 | 141 | 811 | 11 |
| 2 | Edgerrin James | 7 | 162 | 609 | 8 |
| 3 | Ricky Williams | 12 | 238 | 1065 | 7 |
| 3 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 7 | 129 | 623 | 7 |
| 5 | Corey Dillon | 7 | 128 | 577 | 6 |
| 5 | Chris Johnson | 6 | 79 | 532 | 6 |
Henry against Buffalo, every game
| Season | Week | Team | Carries | Yards | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | TEN | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| 2019 | 5 | TEN | 20 | 78 | 1 |
| 2020 | 5 | TEN | 19 | 57 | 2 |
| 2021 | 6 | TEN | 20 | 143 | 3 |
| 2022 | 2 | TEN | 13 | 25 | 1 |
| 2024 | 4 | BAL | 24 | 199 | 1 |
| 2024 | Divisional | BAL | 16 | 84 | 1 |
| 2025 | 1 | BAL | 18 | 169 | 2 |
Henry by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Yards | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 24 | 144 | 3 |
| 2 | NO | 16 | 68 | 1 |
| 3 | DAL | 26 | 89 | 2 |
| 4 | TEN | 23 | 73 | 1 |
| 5 | ATL | 24 | 102 | 0 |
| 6 | CLE | 17 | 58 | 0 |
| 7 | CIN | 17 | 45 | 0 |
Baltimore's run offense against Buffalo's run defense
| Unit | Window | Carries | Yards per carry | EPA per carry | EPA rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL run offense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 207 | 4.84 (8th) | -0.029 | 14 |
| BAL run offense | 2025 regular season | 490 | 5.47 (1st) | +0.100 | 2 |
| BUF run defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 6 | 156 | 3.90 (8th) | -0.013 | 23 |
| BUF run defense | 2025 regular season | 445 | 5.21 (30th) | +0.094 | 30 |
Why it matters. Henry is the one Raven whose history in this matchup is not close: his three games against Buffalo for Baltimore produced 452 yards and four touchdowns. His last two games are the lowest of his season, and Baltimore's run game has gone from second by EPA per carry to 14th, so Buffalo's run defense, 23rd by EPA but eighth by yards per carry, gets to test whether those two games were a blip.
No QB since 1999 had eight rushing TDs in six games. Allen does
What to watchJosh Allen has eight rushing touchdowns in six games, the most by any quarterback through his team's first six since 1999 and tied for the league lead with three running backs; seven came from the 2-yard line or closer, and two of his touchdown runs came in the fourth quarter of the 2025 opener against Baltimore. With James Cook's six, Buffalo has 14 rushing touchdowns, tied with Chicago for the most, and its plus 0.156 EPA per carry ranks first, as it did in 2025. Baltimore's run defense allows 3.81 yards per carry, fifth fewest, yet has given up eight rushing touchdowns in seven games, 21st per game. If Buffalo's first snap inside the Baltimore 3 ends with Allen carrying it in, Baltimore's short-yardage defense is playing to its touchdown number; if Buffalo settles for a field goal there, the fifth ranked run defense has carried its yards per carry to the goal line.
Most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback through his team's first six games, since 1999
| Rank | Season | Team | Player | Carries | Yards | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026 | BUF | Josh Allen | 48 | 240 | 8 |
| 2 | 2011 | CAR | Cam Newton | 47 | 207 | 6 |
| 2 | 2012 | WAS | Robert Griffin | 55 | 379 | 6 |
| 2 | 2020 | ARI | Kyler Murray | 51 | 370 | 6 |
| 2 | 2022 | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 77 | 293 | 6 |
Allen's rushing touchdowns, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Yard line | Run |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 21 | 21-yard scramble |
| 1 | HOU | 1 | 1-yard run |
| 2 | DET | 1 | 1-yard run |
| 2 | DET | 2 | 2-yard scramble |
| 3 | LAC | 1 | 1-yard run |
| 3 | LAC | 1 | 1-yard run |
| 4 | NE | 2 | 2-yard run |
| 5 | LA | 1 | 1-yard run |
Buffalo's run game against Baltimore's run defense, 2026
| Unit | Carries | Yards per carry | EPA per carry | Rushing TD | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF run offense | 168 | 5.36 | +0.156 | 14 in 6 games | 1st by EPA, 1st in TD (tied) |
| BUF run offense, 2025 regular season | 522 | 5.25 | +0.110 | Not ranked | 1st by EPA |
| BAL run defense | 178 | 3.81 | -0.079 | 8 in 7 games | 5th by YPC, 8th by EPA, 21st in TD per game |
| BAL run defense, 2025 regular season | 419 | 4.38 | -0.052 | Not ranked | 7th by EPA |
Why it matters. No offense has run for more touchdowns than Buffalo's, and its quarterback is the finisher: Allen's eight rushing touchdowns are as many as Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams and Christian McCaffrey. Baltimore's run defense keeps gains short between the 20s, but it has allowed eight rushing touchdowns, and the 2025 opener ended with Allen running in two of them in the fourth quarter.
Baltimore is plus 44 through three quarters and minus 42 in the fourth
What to watchBaltimore has outscored opponents by 44 points through three quarters, fourth best in the league, and been outscored 77 to 35 in fourth quarters and overtime, 31st; it led New Orleans and Cleveland entering the fourth and lost both, and Cincinnati's 21 to 0 fourth quarter turned a one-point game into a 35 to 13 loss in Week 7. Buffalo's fourth quarters are the busiest in football, 23.17 points per game counting both sides, and it has scored in every one of them, while Baltimore has been held scoreless in four of seven. Per game, Buffalo allows 12.0 points in the fourth quarter and overtime and Baltimore 11.0, the two highest figures in the league, so neither defense has protected a finish. If Baltimore scores on its first possession of the fourth quarter, it has done something it managed in only three of seven games; if Buffalo gets the ball back within one score, its offense has not been held without a fourth-quarter point all season.
Most fourth quarter and overtime points allowed per game, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank | Team | Games | Allowed | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 6 | 72 | 12.0 |
| 2 | BAL | 7 | 77 | 11.0 |
| 3 | IND | 7 | 69 | 9.86 |
| 4 | PHI | 7 | 68 | 9.71 |
| 5 | WAS | 6 | 55 | 9.17 |
Point margin by phase, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Team | Through three quarters | Rank of 32 | Fourth quarter and OT | Rank of 32 | Scoreless fourth quarters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | +44 | 4 | -42 (35 for, 77 against) | 31 | 4 of 7 |
| BUF | +31 | 6 | -5 (67 for, 72 against) | 18 | 0 of 6 |
Score entering the fourth quarter and final, 2026
| Team | Week | Opponent | After three | Final | Fourth quarter and OT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | at IND | 31-16 | W 41-23 | 10-7 |
| BAL | 2 | vs NO | 17-9 | L 17-24 | 0-15 |
| BAL | 3 | at DAL | 24-21 | W 34-31 | 10-10 |
| BAL | 4 | vs TEN | 24-10 | W 24-18 | 0-8 |
| BAL | 5 | at ATL | 15-17 | W 30-23 (OT) | 15-6 |
| BAL | 6 | at CLE | 10-3 | L 10-13 | 0-10 |
| BAL | 7 | vs CIN | 13-14 | L 13-35 | 0-21 |
| BUF | 1 | at HOU | 27-21 | W 36-31 | 9-10 |
| BUF | 2 | vs DET | 34-17 | W 41-31 | 7-14 |
| BUF | 3 | vs LAC | 10-13 | W 24-16 | 14-3 |
| BUF | 4 | vs NE | 17-21 | L 26-29 | 9-8 |
| BUF | 5 | at LA | 19-14 | W 37-34 (OT) | 18-20 |
| BUF | 6 | at LV | 23-13 | W 33-30 | 10-17 |
Why it matters. Through three quarters Baltimore has been one of the league's better teams, and the season has been lost after that: two of its three losses came after leading entering the fourth, the same shape as the 40 to 25 lead that ended 41 to 40 in Buffalo. Buffalo's defense gives up more late points per game than anyone, but its offense has scored in every fourth quarter, so a Baltimore lead with 15 minutes left is the scenario both teams' numbers point at.
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