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Falcons @ Buccaneers
Week 8 · 2026
Tampa is 0-4 at home this season, and Atlanta has won its last three games there.
Tampa is 0-4 at home. Atlanta has won its last three games there
StorylineTampa Bay and Atlanta are two of the best road teams in the league and two of the worst at home. The Buccaneers are 2-1 away with a plus 32 point margin, fourth best in football, and 0-4 at Raymond James Stadium, every loss by seven points or fewer; the Falcons are 2-1 away at plus 35, third best, and 1-3 in Atlanta. The Falcons have also won their last three games in Tampa by a combined nine points and are 7-3 there since 2016. A Falcons win puts them alone in first in the NFC South at 4-4, so Sunday asks which split breaks.
Home and road, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Team | Overall | Points for and against | Home | Home margin | Road | Road margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 2-5 | 162 to 151 | 0-4 | -21 | 2-1 | +32 |
| ATL | 3-4 | 171 to 173 | 1-3 | -37 | 2-1 | +35 |
Atlanta in Tampa since 2016, regular season
| Season | Week | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9 | ATL 43, TB 28 |
| 2017 | 15 | ATL 24, TB 21 |
| 2018 | 17 | ATL 34, TB 32 |
| 2019 | 17 | ATL 28, TB 22 |
| 2020 | 17 | TB 44, ATL 27 |
| 2021 | 2 | TB 48, ATL 25 |
| 2022 | 5 | TB 21, ATL 15 |
| 2023 | 7 | ATL 16, TB 13 |
| 2024 | 8 | ATL 31, TB 26 |
| 2025 | 15 | ATL 29, TB 28 |
Tampa's home games, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CLE | CLE 23, TB 19 | 4 |
| 3 | MIN | MIN 23, TB 16 | 7 |
| 4 | GB | GB 17, TB 14 | 3 |
| 6 | PIT | PIT 26, TB 19 | 7 |
Week 7 pointed both teams the right way. Tampa won 43-13 at Carolina, and its defense allowed minus 0.268 expected points per play, best of the 28 teams that played, against minus 0.111, third, through seven weeks and plus 0.013, 17th, across 2025. Atlanta beat San Francisco 29-20 with four takeaways and posted plus 0.050 per play on offense, 15th of 28, after minus 0.042, 23rd, through seven weeks and minus 0.021, 24th, in 2025. Tampa is 2-5 and the only team with five losses that has outscored its opponents.
EPA per play, three windows
| Unit | Window | Plays | EPA per play | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB defense | 2026 Wk 7 at CAR | 54 | -0.268 | 1 of 28 |
| TB defense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 405 | -0.111 | 3 of 32 |
| TB defense | 2025 regular season | 990 | +0.013 | 17 of 32 |
| TB offense | 2026 Wk 7 at CAR | 58 | +0.212 | 6 of 28 |
| TB offense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 432 | -0.084 | 28 of 32 |
| ATL offense | 2026 Wk 7 vs SF | 59 | +0.050 | 15 of 28 |
| ATL offense | 2026 Wks 1 to 7 | 418 | -0.042 | 23 of 32 |
| ATL offense | 2025 regular season | 1036 | -0.021 | 24 of 32 |
Week 7 takeaways
| Defense | Game | Interceptions | Fumbles recovered | Takeaways |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | SF 20, ATL 29 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| TB | TB 43, CAR 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
NFC South through Week 8 Thursday
| Team | Record | Points for | Points against |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 3-4 | 178 | 193 |
| ATL | 3-4 | 171 | 173 |
| TB | 2-5 | 162 | 151 |
| NO | 2-5 | 162 | 194 |
Why it matters. Home field has been a weight on both teams, not an edge: Tampa has lost four one-score games at home and won at Dallas by 8 and at Carolina by 30, and Atlanta's two wins away from home came by 21 points each. The series follows the same pattern, with Atlanta 7-3 in Tampa since 2016. A loss would drop Tampa to 2-6 and 0-5 at home; a win would give Atlanta first place in the division, earned in the kind of building where it has played its best football.
Tampa ran 47 times in Charlotte, into a run defense leaking since Week 5
What to watchTampa Bay wins when it runs: 37 runs at Dallas and 47 at Carolina in its two wins, and never more than 31 in its five losses. The 47 in Week 7 went for 261 yards, the second most by any team in a game this season through Week 7, and the Bucs' run offense ranks fifth at plus 0.056 expected points per run after 12th in 2025, with Bucky Irving eighth in the league at 558 yards. Atlanta's run defense ranks fifth at minus 0.087 per run after 25th in 2025, but its season has two halves: 2.99 yards per carry over Weeks 1 to 4, then 4.82 over Weeks 5 to 7, including 123 yards on 23 carries by San Francisco.
Run offense and run defense, EPA per run, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Unit | Runs | EPA per run | Yards per carry | Rank of 32 | 2025 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB offense | 205 | +0.056 | 5.03 | 5 | 12 |
| ATL defense | 157 | -0.087 | 4.04 | 5 | 25 |
| ATL offense | 199 | -0.012 | 4.95 | 12 | 23 |
| TB defense | 144 | -0.086 | 3.87 | 6 | 3 |
Tampa's runs by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Runs | Yards | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at CIN | 19 | 90 | L 27-33 |
| 2 | CLE | 25 | 137 | L 19-23 |
| 3 | MIN | 21 | 57 | L 16-23 |
| 4 | GB | 31 | 141 | L 14-17 |
| 5 | at DAL | 37 | 243 | W 24-16 |
| 6 | PIT | 25 | 102 | L 19-26 |
| 7 | at CAR | 47 | 261 | W 43-13 |
Most runs by one team in a 2026 game, Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank | Team | Week | Runs | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 4 | 51 | 235 |
| 2 | TB | 7 | 47 | 261 |
| 3 | SEA | 7 | 41 | 153 |
| 4 | SEA | 2 | 40 | 162 |
| 5 | CHI | 1 | 39 | 291 |
Runs allowed by Atlanta, by game, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Yards | Per carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 18 | 61 | 3.39 |
| 2 | CAR | 21 | 72 | 3.43 |
| 3 | GB | 9 | 17 | 1.89 |
| 4 | NO | 19 | 50 | 2.63 |
| 5 | BAL | 35 | 212 | 6.06 |
| 6 | CHI | 32 | 99 | 3.09 |
| 7 | SF | 23 | 123 | 5.35 |
The Week 8 injury report lists Irving as not participating in practice, marked not injury related, resting player. If Tampa's first two drives are mostly runs and Atlanta is not stopping them near the line, the Dallas and Carolina script is on; if the Bucs are throwing on early downs by the second quarter, they are playing the kind of game they have lost five times.
Why it matters. Run counts follow leads as much as they create them, so 37 and 47 runs in Tampa's wins are partly a result of winning. The useful part is the efficiency: Tampa's runs have gained positive expected points while its passing ranks 31st, so a game that stays close gives the Bucs their best unit for four quarters. Atlanta's run defense ranks fifth on the season but allowed 6.06 and 5.35 yards per carry in two of its last three games, which is where Tampa's plan meets its test.
Penix has thrown one interception in 144 tries. Tampa Bay has made eight
What to watchMichael Penix Jr. has been one of the league's most careful passers: one interception in 144 attempts, the fourth lowest rate among 32 passers with 100 attempts, and a 109.1 rating, fourth. He is at plus 0.175 expected points per dropback, eighth of 34, against minus 0.004 across 2025, and in Week 7 he went 25 of 34 for 213 yards and three touchdowns without a sack, one week after five sacks against Chicago. Tampa Bay's pass defense ranks third at minus 0.124 per dropback after 20th in 2025, its eight interceptions are tied for second, and it has 10 sacks on 88 dropbacks over its last two games.
Passer rating leaders, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7, 100 or more attempts
| Rank of 32 | Passer | Attempts | TD | INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Goff | 223 | 14 | 0 | 112.5 |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | 219 | 15 | 3 | 110.4 |
| 3 | Brock Purdy | 211 | 15 | 4 | 110.1 |
| 4 | Michael Penix Jr. | 144 | 9 | 1 | 109.1 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | 184 | 14 | 4 | 106.2 |
| 24 | Baker Mayfield | 107 | 3 | 2 | 83.0 |
Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank of 32 | Defense | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 198 | -0.252 | 21 |
| 2 | SEA | 231 | -0.137 | 17 |
| 3 | TB | 261 | -0.124 | 16 |
| 4 | DEN | 280 | -0.107 | 21 |
| 5 | LA | 241 | -0.065 | 10 |
| 14 | ATL | 303 | +0.018 | 17 |
Penix by game and Tampa's pass defense by game, 2026
| Week | Penix dropbacks, EPA, sacks | TB defense dropbacks, EPA, sacks, INT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | did not throw | 36 vs CIN, -0.073, 1, 1 |
| 2 | did not throw | 32 vs CLE, +0.324, 2, 0 |
| 3 | 26 at GB, +0.366, 0 | 32 vs MIN, -0.378, 3, 1 |
| 4 | 21 at NO, +0.507, 1 | 30 vs GB, +0.230, 0, 1 |
| 5 | 35 vs BAL, +0.219, 3 | 43 at DAL, -0.076, 0, 2 |
| 6 | 40 vs CHI, -0.246, 5 | 52 vs PIT, -0.264, 5, 1 |
| 7 | 33 vs SF, +0.279, 0 | 36 at CAR, -0.501, 5, 2 |
If Tampa sacks Penix on either of Atlanta's first two possessions, the Chicago game is the template; if his first quarter throws are coming out clean, the third ranked pass defense is the unit under pressure.
Why it matters. Penix's value this season has come from avoiding the play Tampa makes best: his one interception set against a defense with eight is the cleanest strength-on-strength collision in the game. His only poor game came with five sacks, and Tampa has five sacks in each of its last two games, so the pressure count decides which of those numbers gives. Both samples are small, five games for Penix and seven games for Tampa's defense, and the 2025 numbers on both sides were ordinary.
No passer is sacked more often than Mayfield. Atlanta's rush has 10 in 3 games
What to watchBaker Mayfield has been sacked on 10.8 percent of his dropbacks, the highest rate of 34 passers with 100, after 6.2 percent across 2025. All 13 of those sacks came in Weeks 1 to 3, on 109 dropbacks; in his first game since Week 3 he took none and went 7 of 11 for 64 yards and a touchdown on a day the Buccaneers ran 47 times. Atlanta's rush, fourth by sack rate in 2025, had seven sacks on 185 dropbacks over Weeks 1 to 4, 27th, then 10 on 118 over Weeks 5 to 7, eighth.
Highest sack rate, passers with 100 or more dropbacks, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank of 34 | Passer | Dropbacks | Sacks | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baker Mayfield | 120 | 13 | 10.8% |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson | 236 | 25 | 10.6% |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 200 | 21 | 10.5% |
| 4 | Malik Willis | 167 | 16 | 9.6% |
| 5 | Geno Smith | 230 | 21 | 9.1% |
| 19 | Michael Penix Jr. | 155 | 9 | 5.8% |
Tampa passing by stretch, 2026
| Weeks | Passer | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 3 | Baker Mayfield | 109 | -0.297 | 13, 11.9% |
| 4 to 6 | Jalon Daniels | 104 | -0.194 | 9, 8.7% |
| 7 | Baker Mayfield | 11 | +0.481 | 0, 0.0% |
| 2025 regular season | Baker Mayfield | 584 | -0.006 | 36, 6.2% |
Atlanta's pass rush, three windows
| Window | Dropbacks faced | Sacks | Rate | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 regular season | 590 | 57 | 9.7% | 4 |
| 2026 Wks 1 to 4 | 185 | 7 | 3.8% | 27 |
| 2026 Wks 5 to 7 | 118 | 10 | 8.5% | 8 |
The Week 8 injury report lists Mayfield with a thumb injury and full participation in practice, and Emeka Egbuka, Tampa's target leader with 49, as a limited participant with a concussion; the Week 7 report listed Egbuka Out. If Atlanta sacks Mayfield in the first quarter, his Weeks 1 to 3 numbers are in play; if his early dropbacks are clean, Tampa can keep its run plan and throw when it chooses.
Why it matters. Tampa Bay's pass offense ranks 31st by EPA per dropback, and its passers were sacked on 11.9 percent of dropbacks in Weeks 1 to 3 and 8.7 percent in Weeks 4 to 6 before 11 clean dropbacks in Charlotte. Mayfield's own 2025 rate was 6.2 percent, so Weeks 1 to 3 are the outlier in his record, not the baseline. Atlanta's rush is the swing: three games near its 2025 rate after four well below it, and a quarterback who has been the league's easiest to sack this season.
The league's leading rusher has 278 rushing yards in six games against Tampa
What to watchBijan Robinson leads the league with 704 rushing yards, and Tampa Bay has kept him in check: 67 carries for 278 yards in six regular season games, 4.15 per carry, with a best of 93 in Tampa last December. He has hurt the Bucs more as a receiver, 29 catches for 295 yards. Tampa's run defense ranks sixth at minus 0.086 expected points per run and 3.87 yards per carry, after third in 2025, and it is the same front that held Carolina to 13 points last week.
Rushing yards leaders, 2026 Weeks 1 to 7
| Rank | Player | Team | Carries | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 131 | 704 | 4 |
| 2 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | 120 | 701 | 6 |
| 3 | James Cook | BUF | 117 | 627 | 6 |
| 4 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 134 | 620 | 7 |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 140 | 587 | 8 |
| 8 | Bucky Irving | TB | 120 | 558 | 4 |
Bijan Robinson against Tampa, regular season
| Season | Week | Carries | Rush yards | Rush TD | Catches | Rec yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 14 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 54 |
| 2024 | 5 | 12 | 61 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| 2024 | 8 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 7 | 43 |
| 2025 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 100 |
| 2025 | 15 | 19 | 93 | 1 | 8 | 82 |
| Total | 6 games | 67 | 278 | 2 | 29 | 295 |
Bijan Robinson by stretch, 2026
| Weeks | Carries | Rush yards | Per carry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 4 | 85 | 494 | 5.81 |
| 5 to 7 | 46 | 210 | 4.57 |
| 1 to 7 | 131 | 704 | 5.37 |
His last three games were quieter than his first four, and in Week 7 he carried 20 times and caught five passes for 59 yards with Brian Robinson listed Out on the Week 7 injury report; the Week 8 report lists Brian Robinson as not participating in practice with a hamstring injury. If Bijan Robinson is catching passes on Atlanta's first two drives, the Falcons are going around Tampa's run defense rather than through it; if he is stopped near the line on early downs, the game moves to Penix and the Bucs' pass rush.
Why it matters. Robinson is the engine of Atlanta's offense, and Tampa has kept his running in check: his 4.15 yards per carry in the series sits well below the 5.37 he is averaging this season. The receiving line shows how Atlanta has adapted, 295 yards through the air against 278 on the ground. With Brian Robinson not practicing on the Week 8 report and the run game's per carry average down over the last three weeks, Tampa's sixth ranked run defense decides how much of Sunday rests on Penix.
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