Game recap

Colts @ Vikings

2026 Wk 7 · MIN 16, IND 10

Two missed Colts field goals and a fourth-quarter Hockenson touchdown kept Minnesota unbeaten.

FanIQ Research · October 25, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

Minnesota is 6-0 with 125 points, the fewest scored by any 6-0 team since 1999

Rare

Thirty-six teams since 1999 have won their first six games. None of the other 35 scored fewer than the 133 points the 2009 Broncos put up; Minnesota has 125. The Vikings have done it by allowing 74, ninth fewest in that group, and by winning close: four of the six wins came by seven points or fewer, and the biggest margin is 17. Sunday was the template, 16 points on three Will Reichard field goals and one touchdown, and 10 allowed.

Fewest points scored through a 6-0 start, 1999-2026 (36 teams)

Season	Team	Points for	Points against	Margin	Wins by 7 or fewer
2026	MIN	125	74	+51	4
2009	DEN	133	66	+67	3
2015	DEN	139	102	+37	5
2024	KC	146	103	+43	4
2004	NE	148	90	+58	2
2008	TEN	149	66	+83	2
2005	IND	151	57	+94	2
2013	KC	152	65	+87	1
2000	MIN	153	110	+43	4
2019	SF	156	64	+92	1

Minnesota's 2026 wins

Week	Game	Score
1	GB @ MIN	MIN 39, GB 22
2	MIN @ CHI	MIN 9, CHI 3
3	MIN @ TB	MIN 23, TB 16
4	MIA @ MIN	MIN 15, MIA 10
5	MIN @ NO	MIN 23, NO 13
7	IND @ MIN	MIN 16, IND 10

Why it matters. Unbeaten teams are usually built on offense; the median 6-0 team on this list scored 178 points through six games. Minnesota is winning the other way, with a defense that has held five of six opponents to 16 or fewer and an offense that has topped 23 points only once. That profile holds up as long as the defense keeps games close and low, which is exactly what it did again here: the Colts never scored after halftime.

Spencer Shrader was 18 of 18 on field goals this season. Then he missed from 56 and 48

Rare

Shrader had not missed a field goal in six games, including makes from 58, 57 and 52. With Indianapolis up 10-6 and 2:19 left in the third quarter he went wide left from 56. With 4:27 left and the Colts down 13-10 he went wide right from 48, on what would have tied the game. In between, a G.Stewart block stopped a 59-yard Reichard try at 8:38. Three failed field goal tries in the second half of one game has happened 28 times since 1999 and six times since 2016.

Spencer Shrader field goals by week, 2026

Week	Made	Attempts	Long make
1	1	1	58
2	3	3	49
3	4	4	58
4	3	3	52
5	5	5	57
6	2	2	47
7	1	3	43

Games with 3+ failed field goal tries in the 3rd and 4th quarters, 2016-2026

Game	Failed tries	Makes	Final (home first)
2026 Wk 7 IND @ MIN	3	1	MIN 16, IND 10
2026 Wk 5 CHI @ GB	3	1	GB 31, CHI 7
2024 Wk 6 BUF @ NYJ	3	2	NYJ 20, BUF 23
2022 Wk 15 BAL @ CLE	3	0	CLE 13, BAL 3
2021 Wk 5 GB @ CIN	3	2	CIN 22, GB 25
2020 Wk 9 CAR @ KC	3	0	KC 33, CAR 31

Why it matters. In a game where both offenses averaged negative expected points per play, field goals were most of the scoring, and the 48-yard miss was the costliest Colts play of the day by win probability (-0.176), just ahead of the closing interception (-0.171). The two misses together cost Indianapolis 7.66 expected points in a game it lost by six. For a kicker who had made every try through six weeks, it is the kind of day that has no warning sign in the season numbers.

Indianapolis led 10-6 entering the fourth quarter and did not score again

Trend

Jonathan Taylor's 38-yard touchdown run put the Colts ahead at 9:20 of the first quarter, and they led for the next 39 minutes and 39 seconds of game clock. The fourth quarter opened with Kyler Murray scrambling 35 yards on third-and-8 to the Indianapolis 5; one play later he hit T.J. Hockenson for a 5-yard touchdown and Minnesota led for good. Reichard's 52-yarder with 1:44 left made it a six-point game, and Harrison Smith's interception of Daniel Jones at the Minnesota 44 closed it. Minnesota has now trailed entering the fourth quarter twice this season and won both. In the 2025 regular season, a team trailing by 1 to 4 points entering the fourth won 18 of 62 times.

Scoring plays

Qtr	Clock	Team	Play	Score after
1	9:20	IND	Taylor 38-yd TD run	IND 7, MIN 0
2	14:55	MIN	Reichard 28-yd FG	IND 7, MIN 3
2	6:42	MIN	Reichard 47-yd FG	IND 7, MIN 6
2	0:03	IND	Shrader 43-yd FG	IND 10, MIN 6
4	14:41	MIN	Murray 5-yd TD pass to Hockenson	MIN 13, IND 10
4	1:44	MIN	Reichard 52-yd FG	MIN 16, IND 10

Minnesota's score entering the 4th quarter, 2026

Week	Opponent	Score entering Q4	Final
1	GB	GB 22, MIN 17	MIN 39, GB 22
2	CHI	MIN 6, CHI 3	MIN 9, CHI 3
3	TB	MIN 17, TB 13	MIN 23, TB 16
4	MIA	MIN 12, MIA 10	MIN 15, MIA 10
5	NO	MIN 13, NO 13	MIN 23, NO 13
7	IND	IND 10, MIN 6	MIN 16, IND 10

2025 regular season: team trailing entering the 4th quarter

Deficit	Games	Trailing team won	Share
Any (not tied)	261	44	16.9%
1 to 4 points	62	18	29.0%

Why it matters. Murray's scramble was Minnesota's biggest single-play win-probability gain of the game (+0.189), turning a third-and-long from its own 40 into first-and-goal. Four points is a small deficit to carry into a fourth quarter, but last season teams in that spot still won fewer than a third of the time; Minnesota's defense made the deficit the high-water mark by allowing no points after halftime.

The Colts ran 33 times for 154 yards and dropped back 26 times for 64

Split

Indianapolis could move the ball on the ground and could not throw it. Its 33 runs averaged +0.035 expected points per play; its 26 dropbacks averaged -0.299, with four sacks for 44 yards lost against 108 passing yards. Daniel Jones finished 13 of 22 with no touchdowns and an interception. Even the run game was mostly one play: Taylor's 38-yard touchdown came on his third carry, and his other 17 went for 57 yards.

Indianapolis offense by play type, this game

Play type	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	Success rate	Sacks
Run	33	154	+0.035	45.5%	0
Pass (dropbacks)	26	64	-0.299	42.3%	4

Jonathan Taylor's carries, this game

Carries	Count	Yards	EPA/play
38-yd TD run, 1st qtr	1	38	+3.531
All other carries	17	57	-0.206

Why it matters. Minnesota's defense had held opponents to -0.21 expected points per play through its first five games, so a Colts offense at -0.112 overall did better than the Vikings' typical opponent. The problem was where the value came from: the passing game, the part of an offense that usually produces the most, gave back nearly 0.3 points every time Jones dropped back, and the sacks repeatedly turned manageable downs into punts.

Ten points and 218 yards: the Colts' lowest totals of 2026 on both counts

Comparison

Indianapolis had scored at least 19 points in each of its first six games and had never gained fewer than 251 yards. Against Minnesota it managed 10 and 218, on 59 plays. Its efficiency was not far off its own norm (-0.112 expected points per play against -0.062 over the first six weeks); the difference was volume and finishing, with two missed field goals and no points after halftime.

Indianapolis offense by game, 2026 (pass and run plays)

Week	Opponent	Points	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	Sacks	INT
1	BAL	23	53	251	-0.241	2	1
2	KC	30	63	329	+0.154	0	1
3	HOU	19	71	300	-0.114	4	1
4	WAS	30	64	260	-0.086	2	1
5	PIT	22	69	332	+0.003	1	0
6	TEN	20	77	399	-0.105	6	2
7	MIN	10	59	218	-0.112	4	1

Minnesota defense: this game vs its first five games

Games	Plays	EPA/play allowed	Success rate allowed
Weeks 1-5 (5 games)	280	-0.210	33.2%
This game	59	-0.112	44.1%

Why it matters. The Colts' season-low total came on a day their offense was only slightly less efficient than usual, and was more efficient than Minnesota's previous opponents managed. That points at the shape of the loss rather than the talent of the offense: fewer plays than usual, four sacks stalling drives, and two field goal tries from 48 and 56 yards that came back empty. Seven of the 10 points came on one carry.

Indianapolis won the first six meetings since 2000. Minnesota has won the last three

Milestone

From 2000 through 2020 the Colts beat the Vikings six straight times, three of them by 17 points or more. Since then the series has turned: the 39-36 overtime game in 2022, a 21-13 win in 2024, and now 16-10. All three were in Minnesota, and the Colts' 10 points are their fewest in the nine meetings in the database.

Colts vs Vikings, all meetings in the database

Season	Week	Game	Score	Winner
2000	17	MIN @ IND	IND 31, MIN 10	IND
2004	9	MIN @ IND	IND 31, MIN 28	IND
2008	2	IND @ MIN	IND 18, MIN 15	IND
2012	2	MIN @ IND	IND 23, MIN 20	IND
2016	15	IND @ MIN	IND 34, MIN 6	IND
2020	2	MIN @ IND	IND 28, MIN 11	IND
2022	15	IND @ MIN	MIN 39, IND 36	MIN
2024	9	IND @ MIN	MIN 21, IND 13	MIN
2026	7	IND @ MIN	MIN 16, IND 10	MIN

Why it matters. Cross-conference opponents meet only every few years, so a series streak builds slowly; Minnesota's three straight span four seasons. The recent games have also been close in a way the Colts' run was not, with a combined margin of 17 across the three, which fits this year's Vikings, who have won four of their six by a touchdown or less.

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