Game recap
Packers @ Lions
2026 Wk 7 · DET 20, GB 17
Green Bay missed a 26-yard kick and had a 35-yarder blocked, and Jake Bates won it from 22.
Green Bay missed a 26-yard field goal and had a 35-yarder blocked, then lost by 3. Since 1999 that has happened six times.
RareEvery game since 1999 where a team failed on two field goals of 35 yards or shorter and lost by 1 to 3 points
| Season | Week | Team | Opponent | Site | Failed kicks | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 16 | BUF | NE | Home | 23 blocked, 30 blocked | NE 13, BUF 10 |
| 2001 | 8 | PIT | BAL | Home | 33 missed, 35 missed | BAL 13, PIT 10 |
| 2001 | 11 | SD | ARI | Home | 25 missed, 27 missed | ARI 20, SD 17 |
| 2010 | 14 | WAS | TB | Home | 34 missed, 24 missed | TB 17, WAS 16 |
| 2013 | 8 | PIT | OAK | Away | 34 missed, 32 missed | OAK 21, PIT 18 |
| 2026 | 7 | GB | DET | Away | 26 missed, 35 blocked | DET 20, GB 17 |
That is the full list across 28 seasons of play-by-play. Green Bay's first miss came on its opening drive: the Packers had 3rd and 3 at the Detroit 3, took a delay of game, and Trey Smack pushed the 26-yard try wide right. The second came with 3:25 left in a 17-17 game, when Derrick Wonnum blocked a 35-yard attempt. Detroit then drove from its own 25 to the Green Bay 3 and kicked the winner on the final snap.
Why it matters. Kicks of 35 yards or shorter are close to automatic for NFL kickers, so failing on two of them in one game is rare by itself. Both failures here cost points in a game decided by 3, and the second one handed Detroit the ball with enough clock left to win. Green Bay is the first team to lose a game this way since 2013.
Jake Bates has five game-winning field goals in the last 30 seconds since 2024, tied for the most in the NFL. Two of them beat Green Bay.
MilestoneMost game-winning field goals in the final 30 seconds or overtime, regular season, 2024 to 2026 Week 7
| Rank | Kicker | Team | Kicks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Bates | DET | 5 |
| 1 | Andre Szmyt | CLE | 5 |
| 3 | Spencer Shrader | IND | 3 |
| 3 | Chad Ryland | ARI | 3 |
| 3 | Wil Lutz | DEN | 3 |
Jake Bates's five
| Season | Week | Opponent | Distance | Seconds left | Score before kick | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | at MIN | 44 | 19 | Down 1 | DET 31, MIN 29 |
| 2024 | 10 | at HOU | 52 | 4 | Tied | DET 26, HOU 23 |
| 2024 | 14 | GB | 35 | 2 | Tied | DET 34, GB 31 |
| 2025 | 18 | at CHI | 42 | 2 | Tied | DET 19, CHI 16 |
| 2026 | 7 | GB | 22 | 1 | Tied | DET 20, GB 17 |
The 22-yarder with one second left was the shortest of the five. Both wins over Green Bay came at Ford Field in a tied game with two seconds or less on the clock.
Why it matters. A kick in the last 30 seconds of a close game is the narrowest point of failure in football: there is no possession left to recover a miss. Bates has had that chance five times in under three seasons and converted every one, which is part of why Detroit has won close games it was not dominating. This one was the easiest of his five on distance, but it came right after Green Bay failed on a shorter kick of its own.
Green Bay had the better EPA per play and still lost. In 2025, 37 of 271 games went that way.
AnomalyThis game, offense on pass and run plays
| Team | Plays | EPA/play | Success rate | Plays of 20+ yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 65 | +0.037 | 33.8% | 6 |
| DET | 65 | -0.063 | 52.3% | 4 |
The plays that swung the EPA count
| Qtr | Clock | Team | Play | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3:39 | GB | Love 22-yd pass to Kraft | +4.51 |
| 2 | 5:56 | GB | Love 28-yd pass to Watson | +4.42 |
| 1 | 12:35 | GB | Love 27-yd pass to S. Williams | +4.39 |
| 2 | 0:30 | DET | Gibbs fumble, recovered by GB at its 8 | -4.50 |
| 3 | 14:16 | DET | Goff aborted snap, recovered by GB at DET 42 | -5.87 |
| 3 | 1:09 | DET | Goff incomplete on 4th and 5 at GB 6 | -2.97 |
2025 regular season: games won by the team with the lower offensive EPA per play
| Decided games | Lower-EPA team won | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | 37 | 13.7% |
Detroit stayed on schedule far more often, with a success rate 18.5 points higher, but gave back two fumbles and a fourth down inside the Green Bay 10. Green Bay's efficiency came in chunks: three completions of 22 yards or more were each worth more than 4 expected points. After the Goff fumble, Green Bay took over at the Detroit 42 and scored five plays later on a 25-yard Josh Jacobs touchdown catch.
Why it matters. EPA per play usually picks the winner, because it folds turnovers and field position into one number. Detroit's number was pulled under zero by three plays worth a combined minus 13.34 EPA, while its down-to-down success was the best of the two teams by a wide margin. The result says Detroit's offense was steadier than its EPA suggests and Green Bay's was more boom or bust.
Green Bay reached the Detroit 20 four times and scored 7 points there. Detroit got 20 points from six trips.
SplitEvery possession that reached the opponent's 20
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Reached | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 1 | 11:55 | DET 6 | Missed 26-yd FG | 0 |
| GB | 1 | 1:47 | DET 15 | Love 14-yd TD pass to Kraft | 7 |
| GB | 2 | 5:13 | DET 13 | Turnover on downs at DET 7 | 0 |
| GB | 4 | 3:30 | DET 17 | Blocked 35-yd FG | 0 |
| DET | 1 | 7:08 | GB 16 | Goff 16-yd TD pass to J. Williams | 7 |
| DET | 2 | 13:23 | GB 20 | Bates 40-yd FG | 3 |
| DET | 2 | 0:34 | GB 12 | Gibbs fumble at GB 8 | 0 |
| DET | 3 | 7:19 | GB 11 | Goff 10-yd TD pass to J. Williams | 7 |
| DET | 3 | 1:52 | GB 11 | Turnover on downs at GB 6 | 0 |
| DET | 4 | 2:00 | GB 20 | Bates 22-yd FG | 3 |
Red zone summary
| Team | Trips | Touchdowns | Points | Points per trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 4 | 1 | 7 | 1.75 |
| DET | 6 | 2 | 20 | 3.33 |
Green Bay's other 10 points came from outside the 20: a 25-yard Jacobs touchdown catch and a 43-yard Smack field goal. Detroit also came away empty twice, on a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble with 30 seconds left in the first half and a fourth-and-5 incompletion at the Green Bay 6, but it scored on four of its six trips.
Why it matters. Green Bay moved the ball into scoring range often enough to win, and the red zone is where the game turned. Three empty trips, two of them field goal tries from 35 yards or closer, left at least 6 points on the field in a 3-point loss. Detroit had its own two empty trips and still scored almost twice as many points per visit.
Green Bay's 33.8 percent success rate was below every NFL team's average through six weeks.
ComparisonOffensive success rate, 2026 Weeks 1 to 6, top 3, Detroit, and bottom 3 plus Green Bay
| Rank | Team | Plays | Success rate | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 337 | 52.8% | 0.209 |
| 2 | KC | 304 | 49.3% | 0.155 |
| 3 | DET | 330 | 49.1% | 0.180 |
| 25 | GB | 358 | 40.2% | -0.010 |
| 31 | LAC | 370 | 35.9% | -0.225 |
| 31 | MIN | 298 | 35.9% | -0.099 |
This game against each team's own Weeks 1 to 6 rate
| Team | This game | Plays | Weeks 1 to 6 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 52.3% | 65 | 49.1% | +3.2 |
| GB | 33.8% | 65 | 40.2% | -6.4 |
Detroit came in third in the league and beat its own rate. Green Bay came in 25th at 40.2 percent and fell to 33.8, under the 35.9 percent posted by the two lowest teams across the first six weeks. Green Bay converted 5 of 15 third downs; Detroit converted 5 of 10.
Why it matters. Success rate counts plays that keep a drive on schedule, so a low number means a lot of second and long and third and long. That fits how Green Bay played: 45 Jordan Love passes, 19 runs, and long gains carrying most of the value. An offense that needs explosive plays to score is exposed in the red zone, where the field is short, and that is where the Packers came up empty three times.
Two ties, two lead changes, no lead bigger than 7, and a final drive of seven Jahmyr Gibbs carries
TrendScoring plays
| Qtr | Clock | Team | Play | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7:08 | DET | Goff 16-yd TD pass to J. Williams | DET 7, GB 0 |
| 1 | 1:04 | GB | Love 14-yd TD pass to Kraft | DET 7, GB 7 |
| 2 | 12:40 | DET | Bates 40-yd FG | DET 10, GB 7 |
| 3 | 12:22 | GB | Love 25-yd TD pass to Jacobs | GB 14, DET 10 |
| 3 | 6:40 | DET | Goff 10-yd TD pass to J. Williams | DET 17, GB 14 |
| 4 | 7:14 | GB | Smack 43-yd FG | DET 17, GB 17 |
| 4 | 0:01 | DET | Bates 22-yd FG | DET 20, GB 17 |
Detroit's final drive, after the blocked field goal
| Clock | Down | Spot | Play | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:21 | 1st and 10 | DET 25 | Gibbs run | 2 |
| 2:45 | 2nd and 8 | DET 27 | Goff pass to LaPorta, plus 15 for roughing the passer | 18 |
| 2:29 | 1st and 10 | GB 40 | Gibbs run | 15 |
| 2:24 | 1st and 10 | GB 25 | Gibbs run | 2 |
| 2:20 | 2nd and 8 | GB 23 | Gibbs run | 3 |
| 2:00 | 1st and 10 | GB 15 | Gibbs run | 8 |
| 1:54 | 2nd and 2 | GB 7 | Gibbs run | 1 |
| 1:08 | 3rd and 6 | GB 11 | Gibbs run | 8 |
| 0:27 | 1st and 3 | GB 3 | Goff kneel | -1 |
| 0:01 | 2nd and 4 | GB 4 | Bates 22-yd FG | Good |
Jameson Williams caught both Detroit touchdowns. After the tie at 17, Detroit took over at its own 25 with 3:21 left and gave the ball to Gibbs on seven of its next eight snaps for 39 yards. Green Bay used its three timeouts at 2:24, 2:20 and 1:54, and Detroit still ran the clock down to one second before the kick. Gibbs finished with 29 carries for 116 yards.
Why it matters. Neither team was ever more than one score ahead, so every empty trip and every turnover mattered at full weight. Detroit's last drive shows a team that trusted its run game to do two jobs at once: gain the yards and take the clock away from Green Bay. By the time Bates kicked, the Packers had no timeouts and no snaps left.
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