Seahawks @ Broncos

Smith-Njigba carries Seattle's passing game into Denver's third ranked defense

Both teams went 14 and 3 in 2025. Seattle won the Super Bowl, Denver lost the AFC title game 10 to 7, and both are 3 and 2 after losing to San Francisco in back to back weeks. Seattle's passing game has one clear center: Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league with 583 receiving yards and seven touchdown catches, 49 percent of the team's receiving yards and seven of its 11 touchdown passes, with Drew Lock throwing most of the passes in Weeks 1 and 2 and Sam Darnold since. His seven scores tie for fourth most by any player through five team games since 2003, and nobody else with seven or more had as many yards. Denver's pass defense allows minus 0.089 expected points per dropback, third of 32, after sixth in 2025. Thursday night asks one question: can Denver take him away, and if it does, what does Seattle have left?

Last week pulled the two teams in opposite directions. Seattle lost 32 to 29 at home to San Francisco, and its offense posted minus 0.425 EPA per play, last of the 30 teams that played, after plus 0.033 and 13th across 2025. Denver won 23 to 17 at the Chargers with a defense that allowed minus 0.397 per play, second of the week, after minus 0.088 and sixth in 2025. Each is one game, set beside a full season.

Why it matters. Seattle's offense leans on one player: Smith-Njigba leads the league in yards and touchdowns while the team ranks 16th in passing efficiency and 30th running the ball. Denver's pass defense is third, and it held the Chargers to minus 0.570 per dropback last week, first of the week. Seattle's last regular season win in Denver came in 2006, and it lost there in 2010 and 2018. Every collision below follows from what Denver does about one receiver.

Denver had 68 sacks last season. Seattle gave up five to the 49ers

The fastest way to take Smith-Njigba away is to get to the passer before he is open. Denver's 2025 defense had 68 sacks, the most in the league and the second most by any team since 1999, behind the 2022 Eagles' 70. Five games into 2026 it has 13 on 174 dropbacks, 7.5 percent and 10th, with five at the Chargers last week. Seattle allowed 27 sacks in 2025, a 5.3 percent rate that ranked ninth; it has allowed 11 so far, 7.0 percent and 20th, and San Francisco took five on 34 dropbacks in Week 5 after Seattle had allowed six in the first four games combined. Week 5 is one game for each side. If Denver sacks the Seahawks on either of their first two possessions, the Week 5 pattern is repeating; if Seattle's passer is still clean at the end of the first quarter, Smith-Njigba gets the time his nine catches of 20 yards or more have needed.

Why it matters. Denver's pass rush was the league's best in 2025 by a wide margin, 11 sacks clear of second place, and it is the single unit most able to cut off the throws that feed Seattle's leading receiver. Seattle's protection was solid in 2025 and through four games of 2026, so Week 5 against San Francisco is the outlier the reader has to weigh. Both 2026 numbers are five games against a full season; the by game rows show where each one comes from.

Seattle's run game is 30th. So is Denver's run defense

If Denver does take the ball out of Smith-Njigba's hands, Seattle has to run, and here the weakest unit on each side meets the other. Seattle's rushing plays have averaged minus 0.218 EPA, 30th of 32, after 26th in 2025, and they posted minus 0.518 against San Francisco last week. Denver's run defense allows plus 0.049 per carry, also 30th, after 10th in 2025 with the second best yards per carry allowed, 3.91. One game drives much of Denver's number: Kansas City ran 35 times for 224 yards in Week 1, and in Week 5 the Chargers needed 34 carries for 155 yards and finished at minus 0.255 per run. Emanuel Wilson has carried 73 times for 251 yards. If Seattle's runs are gaining four yards or more on first down in the first quarter, it can stay balanced and slow Denver's rush; if Seattle is throwing on first down by the second quarter, the game is back on Smith-Njigba and the pass protection.

Why it matters. This is weakness against weakness. Seattle's run game was below average in 2025 too, so its 30th place is close to its baseline; Denver's run defense was a top 10 unit in 2025, and the Kansas City game accounts for much of its slide. That makes the first few Seattle carries the cleanest test in the game of whether Denver's 2025 run defense is back, and the answer decides how often Seattle has to throw into the pass rush.

Denver won going 1 for 12 on third down. Seattle's defense allows a third

Denver won at the Chargers while converting 1 of 12 third downs. Since 1999, offenses that converted one or none on 12 or more tries have won 18 of 136 such games, and Denver's defense, second of the week in EPA allowed, carried this one. Across five weeks Denver converts 34.4 percent, 28th of 32, after 42.7 percent and ninth in 2025; before Week 5 it stood at 21 of 52. Seattle's defense allows 33.8 percent, fifth, and it led the league in 2025 at 33.0 percent. Bo Nix has 942 passing yards and six touchdowns in five games. If Denver converts two of its first three third downs, Week 5 was one bad day; if Seattle gets off the field on the first two, Denver's defense has to win the game on its own again.

Why it matters. Third down is where Denver's offense has fallen furthest from its 2025 self, and Seattle's defense is the unit least likely to let it recover: first in 2025, fifth now. The other pairing is just as stark the other way: Seattle converts 31.6 percent, 30th, against a Denver defense that was second in 2025 and is 25th now. Whichever offense finds third downs first gets the extra possessions in a game between two offenses ranked 24th and 25th in EPA per play.