Texans @ Jaguars

Stroud has 185 passes without an interception. Jacksonville lives on them.

C.J. Stroud has thrown 185 passes this season without an interception, the fifth most by any quarterback through five team games since 2003, and he is the only passer in that top ten twice: he threw 186 without one to open 2023. Sunday's 9:30 AM Eastern kickoff at Wembley Stadium puts him across from a defense that lives on interceptions. Jacksonville picked off 22 passes in 2025, second only to Chicago's 23, and has six this season, tied for third. The last time Stroud faced the Jaguars, in Week 3 of 2025, they intercepted him twice in a 17 to 10 Jacksonville win, after four straight meetings in which he threw none. The question the rest of the morning answers is whether Houston keeps the ball, and what each side has left if one of those two numbers breaks.

Both teams arrive off Week 5 wins. Houston beat Tennessee 26 to 3, the same score as its 2019 win over these Jaguars at Wembley, and its defense allowed minus 0.388 expected points per play, third of the week, against minus 0.131 and first in the league across 2025. Jacksonville beat Philadelphia 19 to 17 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and its defense allowed minus 0.203 per play, eighth of the week, after minus 0.105 and third in 2025. Each is one game, set beside a full season. Houston is 1 and 4, Jacksonville 4 and 1.

Why it matters. Stroud's clean start sits near the top of a list that covers 24 seasons, and he is the only name on it twice. Jacksonville has been one of the two best interception defenses in football across 2025 and 2026, and it is the last team to take the ball from him. The two longest standing numbers in this game cannot both survive Sunday, and the side that keeps its number decides who plays from ahead.

Houston cannot run, and no defense stops the run like Jacksonville

If Stroud has to carry Houston, it is because the run game has not for two seasons. The Texans average 3.45 yards per carry, 30th of 32, after 4.02 and 28th in 2025, and they have not reached 3.9 in any game this year, 3.24 on 25 carries at Tennessee in Week 5. Jacksonville allows 3.04 yards per carry, fewest in the league, and over its last two games Cincinnati and Philadelphia ran 33 times for 45 yards; in 2025 the same defense allowed 4.09, seventh. The other half of the collision is nearly as steep: Houston's run defense is second at 3.40, and Bhayshul Tuten has 349 yards on 82 carries for a Jacksonville offense averaging 4.27, 16th. If Houston's run plays are under 3 yards a carry at halftime, Stroud is throwing on every down into the defense with six interceptions; if Tuten is finding 4 a carry, Jacksonville chooses when it throws.

Why it matters. Both run defenses rank in the top two this season, and the Houston offense that meets the better one ranked 28th in 2025 and 30th now, so this is not a one week dip. The by game rows show Jacksonville's number tightening, 45 yards on 33 carries over two weeks, while Houston has been inside a narrow 3.2 to 3.9 band every week. The likeliest result is a game that runs through the two quarterbacks, which sends Stroud's interception free start straight at the defense built to end it.

Stroud throws deep without interceptions. Jacksonville gives up more deep plays.

Stroud's clean sheet is not a product of playing it safe. Houston has 21 pass plays of 20 yards or more on 196 dropbacks, 10.7 percent, third of 32, after 7.8 percent and 19th in 2025, and Stroud's 9.77 air yards per attempt rank second. He has thrown 30 passes 20 or more yards downfield, tied for second most, completing 12 for 310 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, and the big plays are spread across five receivers with three or four each. Jacksonville's pass defense is eighth by expected points per dropback, but it has allowed 20 yard plays on 9.0 percent of dropbacks, 21st, after 6.9 percent and sixth in 2025; Philadelphia managed one in Week 5, New England five in Week 3. The deep ball is where an interception free streak usually ends and where a takeaway defense earns its picks. If Stroud completes a 20 yard throw on Houston's first two possessions, he can attack this secondary on his terms; if his first deep shots fall incomplete, the Jaguars have pushed Houston back toward the run game that averages 3.45 a carry.

Why it matters. The storyline's question is whether Houston keeps the ball, and the answer depends on where Stroud throws it. He has not kept his interception count at zero by checking down: Houston ranks third in 20 yard plays and second in air yards per attempt, a sharp change from 19th in 2025. Jacksonville's pass defense is strong overall but has given up more big plays than its 2025 version, so the deep shot is both Houston's best weapon and the Jaguars' best chance at the turnover their season is built on.

Lawrence has 10 touchdown passes. Houston's rush has 18 sacks.

Jacksonville's passing game is the one that has changed most from 2025. It averages plus 0.274 expected points per dropback, third of 32, after plus 0.059 and 11th across 2025, and Trevor Lawrence has 10 touchdown passes and three interceptions on 143 attempts, with Parker Washington catching 22 passes for 352 yards and four scores. Houston's pass defense led the league at minus 0.186 per dropback in 2025 and sits 16th at 0.000 this season, but its rush has not dropped off: 18 sacks, second to Detroit's 20, on 9.2 percent of dropbacks, fourth. Lawrence has been sacked on 6.5 percent of dropbacks, 18th, and four times at Cincinnati in Week 4. In Week 5 Houston held Tennessee to minus 0.423 per dropback with four sacks, while Jacksonville posted plus 0.248 against Philadelphia, eighth of the week. If Houston has two sacks by halftime, its 2025 pass defense is on the field; if Lawrence is throwing untouched into the second quarter, Jacksonville can build the lead that forces Stroud to take chances.

Why it matters. This is the collision with the most movement in it. Jacksonville's passing game climbed from 11th to third while Houston's pass defense slid from first to 16th, yet the Houston rush still ranks second in sacks and has had at least two in every game. Lawrence's 2026 line is the best stretch in either team's passing numbers, and a pass rush is the one part of Houston's 2025 defense that has fully carried over, so the sack count is the cleanest early read on which version of each unit shows up.