Cardinals @ Rams

Stafford has thrown 50 times three weeks running. Arizona can't stop the pass.

Matthew Stafford has attempted 55, 51 and 54 passes in the Rams' last three games, and no quarterback since 1999 had put together three straight team games of 50 or more attempts. The Rams are 2 and 3 anyway, and last Monday they lost 37 to 34 to Buffalo with Stafford 40 of 54 for 383 yards and three touchdowns. Sunday at SoFi Stadium that volume goes at an Arizona defense that has allowed three or more touchdown passes in four straight games, tied for the most touchdown passes allowed in the league at 14. One more and the Cardinals match the 2018 Falcons' five, the longest such run inside a season since 2003. The Rams are 15 and 3 against Arizona in the regular season since 2017. The question is whether all that throwing finally meets a defense that cannot stop it, or whether a team that keeps passing to keep up stays in close games.

Both teams lost in Week 5. The Rams' offense posted plus 0.231 expected points per play against Buffalo, sixth of the 30 teams that played, after plus 0.145 and second across 2025. Arizona lost 45 to 21 to Detroit and its defense allowed plus 0.326 per play, 29th of 30, after plus 0.088 and 26th in 2025. Each is one game, set beside a full season.

Why it matters. Stafford's three straight 50 attempt games have no match in the play by play back to 1999, and they come from a team that is 2 and 3, so the volume is both a plan and a sign of close games. Arizona's pass defense is the worst matchup that volume could find: four straight games of three or more touchdown passes allowed, a run only the 2018 Falcons extended to five since 2003, and 14 touchdown passes allowed, tied for the league high. The series leans hard to the Rams, 15 and 3 since 2017 with 82 points in the two 2025 meetings, which is the backdrop for Sunday.

Puka Nacua drew 24 targets. Arizona has allowed 9.08 yards a throw.

Puka Nacua drew 24 targets against Buffalo, the second most by any player in a game since 1999, behind Brandon Marshall's 28 in 2009, and caught 17 of them for 138 yards and a touchdown. In his three games this season he averages 15.0 targets, after 10.4 a game across 16 games in 2025, and Davante Adams has four touchdown catches. Arizona's pass defense has allowed 9.08 yards per attempt, 32nd of 32, after 7.22 and 22nd in 2025, and opponents have needed only 26 to 30 attempts a game to throw for three or more touchdowns. The Rams' own 2025 passing offense was fourth at 7.87 yards per attempt. One 24 target game is one game. If Nacua has five targets by the end of the first quarter, the Rams are running the Buffalo plan into the league's softest pass defense; if Adams is the first Ram to score, the touchdown streak from Arizona's last four games is still alive.

Why it matters. The Rams' passing game is funneling the ball to one receiver at a historic rate, and the defense across the field has allowed more yards per throw than any other in 2026 and as many touchdown passes as anyone. Opponents have reached three touchdown passes against Arizona on 26 to 30 attempts; the Rams have thrown 50 or more in three straight games. The 24 target game is a single game and is shown beside Nacua's 2025 per game rate so the reader can weigh it.

Arizona has the fewest big plays in football. The Rams just allowed 13.

Arizona's offense has gained 20 or more yards through the air or 10 or more on the ground on 14 of its 329 plays, 4.3 percent, last of 32, and at San Francisco in Week 3 it ran 80 plays without one. Jacoby Brissett averages 5.58 yards per attempt, also 32nd, after 6.94 across 2025, and he has completed 3 of 19 throws that traveled 20 or more yards in the air. That looks like the right opponent for a Rams defense that has allowed 2 completions on 15 such throws and 5.65 yards per attempt, second fewest. But last week Buffalo hit the Rams for 13 explosive plays, nine of them runs of 10 or more, 22.4 percent of its snaps and 30th of 30 in Week 5, after 13 in the four games before it combined and an 8.6 percent rate, eighth, in 2025. Arizona managed 5.7 percent in its loss to Detroit, 26th of the week. If the Cardinals have a 10 yard run in the first quarter, the Buffalo game left a mark; if they reach halftime without an explosive play, they need long drives against a pass defense that has won almost every deep ball.

Why it matters. Arizona's offense has no big play in it, last in explosive rate and last in yards per attempt, and the Rams' pass defense has been close to airtight against deep throws. The one crack is fresh: Buffalo ran for nine gains of 10 or more yards on Monday, after the Rams allowed 13 explosive plays in their first four games combined. One game is one game, and the 2025 row shows the Rams were eighth then. If Arizona cannot create a chunk play, it has to win long drives to keep pace with an offense throwing 50 times.

Arizona stops the run and almost nothing else. The Rams throw 70 percent.

No defense in the league is split in two like Arizona's. Against the pass it allows plus 0.355 expected points per dropback, 31st of 32; against the run it allows minus 0.119 per carry, seventh, the widest gap between the two of any defense in 2026. The Rams have leaned the way that gap points: they passed on 71.3, 68.4 and 70.9 percent of their plays in the last three games, after 50.0 and 55.4 percent in the first two, and in the first three quarters with the score within seven they pass 64.1 percent of the time, fourth, after 60.6 percent and third in 2025. That last number says the throwing is a choice and not only a chase. Kyren Williams still averages 4.9 yards on 70 carries. If the Rams hand off on three of their first five snaps, they are testing the one unit Arizona can lean on; if Stafford throws on most of the opening drive, the Rams are going straight at a pass defense that has allowed three touchdown passes in four straight weeks.

Why it matters. This is the collision that decides how the Rams spend their snaps. Arizona's run defense is a real strength and its pass defense is close to the bottom, a wider split than any other defense has, and the Rams already throw at one of the league's highest rates even in close games. The 2025 row matters: Arizona's run defense was 21st then, so its 2026 run number is five games old, while its pass defense was poor in both seasons. Every handoff the Rams call is a vote that the run strength is not real.