Game recap
Ravens @ Falcons
2026 Wk 5 · ATL 23, BAL 30
Down 8 with 2:31 left, Baltimore tied it with a touchdown and two-pointer, then won in overtime.
The Falcons have led by 8 or more inside the final three minutes 126 times since 1999. They have lost three: Super Bowl LI, Dallas in 2020, and this one.
RareEvery Falcons loss after leading by 8+ with 3:00 or less left in the 4th quarter, 1999 to 2026
| Season | Week | Type | Opponent | Max late lead | Final | OT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Super Bowl | POST | NE | 8 | NE 34, ATL 28 | Yes |
| 2020 | 2 | REG | DAL | 9 | DAL 40, ATL 39 | No |
| 2026 | 5 | REG | BAL | 8 | BAL 30, ATL 23 | Yes |
Falcons record when leading by 8+ with 3:00 or less left in the 4th quarter, 1999 to 2026
| Games | Wins | Losses | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 123 | 3 | 0 |
Atlanta went up 23-15 on Nick Folk's 48 yard field goal with 2:35 left. Baltimore answered with a Tyler Huntley touchdown pass to Devontez Walker and a Derrick Henry two point run, then won it with a touchdown on the first possession of overtime. The other two entries on this list are the 28-3 Super Bowl against New England and the onside kick loss in Dallas.
Why it matters. A lead of two scores with under three minutes left is close to a certain win, and Atlanta had converted 123 of 126 of them since 1999. Two of the three failures came in overtime, which means the defense had to stop one possession in regulation and could not. The franchise now has a regular-season entry to go with the Super Bowl one inside the same decade.
Baltimore's win probability was 5.3% with 2:17 left in regulation. It was 91.4% before the overtime touchdown.
TrendRavens win probability at key snaps (pre-play model value)
| Moment | Qtr | Clock | BAL | ATL | BAL win prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons run, ball at BAL 32 | 4 | 3:27 | 15 | 20 | 9.4% |
| Kickoff after Folk's 48 yard field goal | 4 | 2:31 | 15 | 23 | 5.8% |
| Huntley deep shot, flag for pass interference | 4 | 2:17 | 15 | 23 | 5.3% |
| Walker 7 yard touchdown catch | 4 | 0:44 | 15 | 23 | 19.2% |
| Kickoff after Henry's two point run | 4 | 0:40 | 23 | 23 | 35.8% |
| Overtime kickoff | OT | 10:00 | 23 | 23 | 59.3% |
| Huntley 1 yard touchdown run | OT | 3:01 | 23 | 23 | 91.4% |
| Kickoff to Atlanta after the extra point | OT | 2:57 | 30 | 23 | 63.2% |
| Tagovailoa pass, intercepted by Kyle Hamilton | OT | 2:11 | 30 | 23 | 49.5% |
The tying drive covered the field in the final 2:31 and ended with Huntley finding Walker from 7 yards. In overtime Baltimore took the ball first and held it for 14 plays. Because Atlanta still got a possession, the model only gave Baltimore 63.2% after the extra point. Tua Tagovailoa, in for Michael Penix Jr., moved the Falcons 20 yards before Hamilton's interception ended the game.
Why it matters. The low point of 5.3% means the model saw roughly one comeback in 19 from that spot. The overtime line shows why the game was never safe for Baltimore: with both teams guaranteed a possession, a touchdown and extra point only moved the needle to 63.2%, and Atlanta was back near even at 49.5% one completion later. Hamilton's interception was worth about half a game on its own.
Derrick Henry's 102 yards were his 57th 100 yard regular-season game, tying Edgerrin James for the most since 1999.
MilestoneMost 100 yard rushing games, regular season, 1999 to 2026
| Player | 100 yard games |
|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 57 |
| Derrick Henry | 57 |
| Adrian Peterson | 56 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 47 |
| Frank Gore | 45 |
| Clinton Portis | 44 |
| Fred Taylor | 43 |
| Chris Johnson | 40 |
Henry in 2026
| Week | Carries | Rush yards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 144 |
| 2 | 16 | 68 |
| 3 | 26 | 89 |
| 4 | 23 | 73 |
| 5 | 24 | 102 |
Henry also caught an 18 yard touchdown from Huntley, ran in the tying two point try, and carried 7 times for 32 yards on the overtime drive.
Why it matters. Henry passed Adrian Peterson and drew level with James in a game where his team's passing game was limited, which is the exact situation that has defined his workload. The Ravens leaned on him for 24 carries and on the clock-eating overtime drive. One more 100 yard game gives him sole possession of the top spot in the play-by-play era.
Baltimore turned 3 of 4 red zone trips into touchdowns. Atlanta scored 1 touchdown on 3 trips and kicked from the 5 and the 16.
SplitRed zone trips, scrimmage plays inside the 20 (two point tries excluded)
| Team | Qtr | Plays | Closest yard line | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | 5 | ATL 1 | 21 yard field goal |
| ATL | 2 | 3 | BAL 5 | Touchdown |
| ATL | 3 | 4 | BAL 3 | 23 yard field goal |
| BAL | 3 | 2 | ATL 18 | Touchdown |
| ATL | 4 | 4 | BAL 16 | 34 yard field goal |
| BAL | 4 | 1 | ATL 7 | Touchdown |
| BAL | OT | 4 | ATL 1 | Touchdown |
Red zone totals
| Team | Trips | TD | FG |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| ATL | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Both teams had a goal-to-go stop. Baltimore reached the 1 in the first quarter and settled for 3. Atlanta reached the 3 in the third quarter, threw two incompletions, and kicked. Atlanta's other touchdown came from Jessie Bates on a 36 yard fumble return.
Why it matters. Atlanta led for most of the second half without ever stretching it past one score, and the two short field goals are why. Converting either of them to a touchdown would have put the Falcons up by more than one possession at the end. Baltimore's three straight red zone touchdowns after the first quarter, including both scores in the final 44 seconds and overtime, decided it.
Tyler Huntley's passes averaged 4.6 air yards. Lamar Jackson's shortest game of 2026 averaged 9.1.
ComparisonRavens quarterbacks by game, 2026 (dropbacks include sacks)
| Week | QB | Dropbacks | EPA/dropback | Success% | Avg air yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | 26 | 0.376 | 53.8% | 11.3 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | 33 | 0.103 | 54.5% | 10.7 |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | 20 | 0.596 | 65.0% | 9.1 |
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | 22 | 0.534 | 54.5% | 10.1 |
| 4 | Tyler Huntley | 9 | 0.028 | 55.6% | 0.4 |
| 5 | Tyler Huntley | 36 | -0.106 | 50.0% | 4.6 |
Huntley completed 24 of 32 for 201 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions, and ran in the winner from the 1. The passing game was built short: every one of Jackson's four games averaged at least 9.1 air yards per throw, and Huntley's EPA per dropback finished below zero for the first time in any Ravens quarterback game this season.
Why it matters. The gap is a design choice as much as a talent read. Baltimore kept Huntley's throws near the line, avoided turnovers, and let Henry carry the volume, which kept the game close enough for the late drive. The cost shows in the efficiency column: minus 0.106 per dropback against a Jackson floor of plus 0.103, so the offense needed the red zone and the run game to cover for it.
Baltimore ran 19 second-half plays to Atlanta's 43 and still outscored the Falcons 14 to 9 after halftime.
SplitOffense by period, both teams (pass and run plays)
| Team | Period | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1st half | 39 | -0.198 | 43.6% | 199 |
| BAL | 2nd half | 19 | 0.293 | 42.1% | 133 |
| BAL | OT | 14 | 0.351 | 64.3% | 63 |
| ATL | 1st half | 19 | 0.006 | 26.3% | 115 |
| ATL | 2nd half | 43 | 0.003 | 37.2% | 232 |
| ATL | OT | 2 | -0.817 | 50.0% | 20 |
Atlanta's 43 second-half plays produced three Folk field goals. Baltimore's 19 produced a Henry touchdown catch and the Walker touchdown with the two point run. The overtime drive then took 14 plays and 63 yards, 9 of them runs, and used 6:59 of the 10 minute period.
Why it matters. Atlanta controlled the ball after halftime but averaged almost exactly zero EPA per play doing it, which is how a lead stays at one score. Baltimore's offense was the opposite: few snaps, but positive value on each one, then a long overtime march that left the Falcons one possession with 2:57 to answer. Possession time favored Atlanta; efficiency favored Baltimore.
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