Packers @ Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is 0-4 with every loss by seven points or fewer. Since 1999, only the 2011 Vikings opened a season that way.

Tampa Bay had the ball at the Green Bay 46 with 1:54 left, down 17-14. An Evan Williams sack pushed it back to a fourth-and-11, and Kamari Nixon intercepted Jalon Daniels' fourth-down throw at the Green Bay 43. The Bucs have now lost four games by a combined 20 points, the smallest combined margin of any of their five 0-4 starts since 1999.

Why it matters. An 0-4 record built on one-score losses reads very differently from one built on blowouts: the Bucs have been in position to win late in every game, and the record reflects finishes rather than a talent gap. The 2026 Bucs and the 2011 Vikings are the full list since 1999, which says how unusual it is to lose four straight close games to open a year. It also came with a rookie quarterback, Jalon Daniels, taking over from Baker Mayfield.

Green Bay gave the ball away twice inside the Tampa Bay 30 in the last ten minutes and still never trailed in the second half.

Why it matters. Each Green Bay giveaway cost about 20 points of win probability, and either one could have tied or flipped the game. What held it was the Packers defense on the two drives that followed: Tampa Bay went backward to its own 1 after the fumble and had to punt from its own 1, and the final drive stalled at midfield on a sack and a fourth-down interception. A 17-7 third-quarter lead survived on stops, not on offense.

Green Bay converted 2 of 9 third downs and 3 of 3 fourth downs, all three on one 16-play touchdown drive.

Why it matters. Green Bay's third-down offense stalled most of the day, and its opening touchdown only happened because Matt LaFleur kept the offense on the field three times on one drive. The drive started at the Green Bay 32 after an Evan Williams interception and took 16 plays and over nine minutes of clock. Two of the three conversions went through Kraft, once as a receiver and once taking a direct snap.

Trey Smack has two of Green Bay's four field goals of 58 yards or longer since 1999, four games into his career.

Smack, a 2026 rookie out of Florida, hit from 58 with two seconds left in the first half to put Green Bay up 10-7. Mason Crosby made one kick of 58 or more in this window. Green Bay won by three.

Why it matters. Tampa Bay was driving at the Green Bay 41 with 41 seconds left in the half when Edgerrin Cooper intercepted Daniels and returned it to the Tampa Bay 44. Smack's leg turned that field position into points with two seconds left. In a game decided by three, it is the margin. Range like this changes when a coach can take points at the end of a half.

Rookie Jalon Daniels ran for 55 yards in his first full game, tied for the fourth-most by a Bucs quarterback since 1999.

Why it matters. Daniels' only prior action was three passes in Week 3, and his first full game shows what he adds: 55 rushing yards on 8 carries, more than Mayfield ran for in any of the first three weeks. The passing side was thinner, 148 yards on 27 attempts with two interceptions in the box score, plus the fourth-down pass Nixon picked off to end it. The legs kept Tampa Bay in a game its passing offense could not take over.