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Raiders @ Saints

2026 Wk 3 · NO 27, LV 35

The Saints led by 11 in the third quarter, then gave the ball away four times in the fourth.

New Orleans gave the ball away four times in the fourth quarter while holding a lead. Six teams since 1999 have done that. All six lost.

Rare

Every team since 1999 with 4+ fourth-quarter giveaways after leading through three quarters

SeasonWkTeamScore after Q3FinalResult
19994DENDEN 13, NYJ 7NYJ 21, DEN 13Loss
200313GBGB 14, DET 13DET 22, GB 14Loss
200517PHIPHI 20, WAS 17WAS 31, PHI 20Loss
20126LACLAC 24, DEN 14DEN 35, LAC 24Loss
20138WASWAS 21, DEN 14DEN 45, WAS 21Loss
20263NONO 27, LV 22LV 35, NO 27Loss

The four Saints giveaways in the fourth quarter

ClockDownPlayRecovered by
13:043rd and 4Tyler Shough sacked by Malcolm Koonce, fumbleMaxx Crosby
8:033rd and 6Shough pass intercepted by Hezekiah Masses, returned 35 yards to the NO 8Masses
2:214th and 1Shough sacked by Jeremy Chinn, fumble forced by CrosbyTaron Johnson
1:021st and 10Juwan Johnson catch, fumble forced by Nate DeanEric Stokes

Since 1999 there have been 30 team games with four or more giveaways in the fourth quarter alone. Only six of those teams were ahead when the quarter started, and New Orleans is the first to do it in thirteen seasons. The interception set the Raiders up at the 8 yard line, and Brock Bowers scored three plays later for the final margin.

Why it matters. A team that leads entering the fourth quarter is supposed to shorten the game, and each giveaway here handed the Raiders a short field or ended a drive that could have run clock. The cohort is small by construction, but the record inside it is not ambiguous: no team has survived four fourth-quarter giveaways from ahead. Two of the four came on sacks, which points at pass protection under pressure rather than one bad decision.

Down 27 to 16 with 5:54 left in the third quarter, the Raiders scored the last 19 points. It is their 11th win since 1999 after trailing by 11 or more in the second half.

Trend

Every scoring play, in order

QtrClockTeamPlayScore (LV-NO)
17:39LVMatt Gay 41 yard field goal3-0
10:54NOShough 2 yard TD pass to Juwan Johnson3-6
211:30LVGay 37 yard field goal6-6
25:49LVKirk Cousins 3 yard TD pass to Michael Mayer13-6
21:57NOShough 3 yard TD pass to Noah Fant13-13
20:04LVGay 25 yard field goal16-13
36:44NOShough 1 yard TD pass to Johnson16-20
35:54NOShough 16 yard TD pass to Fant16-27
33:29LVMike Washington 35 yard TD run22-27
49:27LVCousins 4 yard TD pass to Cody White28-27
46:28LVCousins 4 yard TD pass to Brock Bowers35-27

Raiders wins since 1999 after trailing by 11+ points in the second half

SeasonWkOpponentWorst 2nd-half deficitFinal
19997NYJ-17OAK 24, NYJ 23
20002IND-17OAK 38, IND 31
201613BUF-15OAK 38, BUF 24
20034SD-14OAK 34, SD 31
20127JAX-14OAK 26, JAX 23
20161NO-14OAK 35, NO 34
20184CLE-14OAK 45, CLE 42
201514DEN-12OAK 15, DEN 12
20011KC-11OAK 27, KC 24
200412DEN-11OAK 25, DEN 24
20263NO-11LV 35, NO 27

New Orleans took its largest lead on Noah Fant's second touchdown, then ran 29 more offensive plays for 102 yards and no points, at minus 0.709 EPA per play. The Raiders ran 23 plays for 138 yards and 19 points over the same stretch. Two of the franchise's eleven double-digit second-half comebacks since 1999 have come in the Superdome, and both ended with the Raiders at 35 points.

Why it matters. The comeback list is a decade-scale rarity for this franchise, roughly one such win every two and a half seasons, so a Week 3 entry is a real signal about the 2026 team's resilience rather than a routine result. The mechanism was not a shootout: New Orleans stopped scoring entirely, and the Raiders needed three touchdown drives to flip an 11 point deficit into an 8 point win. The 2016 game in the same building is the closest historical match in this table.

Tyler Shough threw four touchdown passes and lost. Saints quarterbacks have done that five times in 41 four-touchdown games since 1999.

Rare

Saints regular-season losses with a 4+ TD passer, 1999 to 2026

SeasonWkPasserTDYardsAttINTFinal
200817Drew Brees4386491CAR 33, NO 31
201217Drew Brees4396431CAR 44, NO 38
201914Drew Brees5349400SF 48, NO 46
20227Andy Dalton4361473ARI 42, NO 34
20263Tyler Shough4255421LV 35, NO 27

Shough this season

WkOpponentCmpAttYardsTDINT
1at DET355641032
2at BAL273425210
3vs LV294225541

The four previous entries all came in games where the Saints scored at least 31 points and the passer threw for at least 349 yards. Shough's 255 yards is the lowest total on the list by 94 yards, and all four of his touchdowns traveled 16 yards or less: 2, 3, 1 and 16 yard throws to Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant. He has now thrown 8 touchdowns in three games as a starter.

Why it matters. Four touchdown passes in a loss usually means a shootout the defense could not hold. This one is different: the Saints scored 27, not 38 or 46, because the touchdowns were red zone finishes on drives that did not need a big throw. That makes the loss a fourth quarter story rather than a Shough story, and his 8 touchdowns in three starts is the part of his line that carries forward.

Brock Bowers and Chris Olave each saw 13 targets. Bowers turned his into 116 yards and the go-ahead touchdown.

Comparison

Every player with 6 or more targets in this game

PlayerTeamTargetsRecYardsTD
Brock BowersLV13101161
Chris OlaveNO1391070
Juwan JohnsonNO88532
Devaughn VeleNO63390

Bowers' 100-yard receiving games, career

SeasonWkTargetsRecYardsTD
20241116131261
20241314101401
20251851030
2025913121273
2026313101161

Both offenses funneled the ball to one player: Bowers drew 13 of Kirk Cousins' 33 attempts and Olave 13 of Shough's 42. The lines are nearly identical in volume and yardage, 10 for 116 against 9 for 107. The difference is the 4 yard touchdown with 6:28 left that made it 35-27. It is Bowers' fifth 100-yard game, and the fourth of the five with a touchdown.

Why it matters. When two offenses each lean on a single target this heavily, the game often turns on which one finishes drives, and Olave's 107 yards produced no points while Bowers' 116 included the clinching score. For the Raiders this is the third straight season with at least one Bowers 100-yard game, so the usage is a plan rather than a one-week spike. Michael Mayer's touchdown means both Raiders tight ends scored, which is the shape of a passing game built around the middle of the field.

The Raiders are 3-0 for the third time since 1999. The other two teams that did it both finished with double-digit wins.

Milestone

Raiders 3-0 starts, 1999 to 2026

SeasonGame 1Game 2Game 3Final record
2002OAK 31, SEA 17OAK 30 at PIT 17OAK 52, TEN 2511-5
2021LV 33, BAL 27LV 26 at PIT 17LV 31, MIA 2810-7
2026LV 27, MIA 13LV 26 at LAC 14LV 35 at NO 273-0 so far

Raiders versus Saints, every meeting since 1999

SeasonWkHomeFinal
200012NOOAK 31, NO 22
20047OAKNO 31, OAK 26
20086NONO 34, OAK 3
201211OAKNO 38, OAK 17
20161NOOAK 35, NO 34
20202LVLV 34, NO 24
20228NONO 24, LV 0
202417NOLV 25, NO 10
20263NOLV 35, NO 27

In 28 seasons since 1999 the Raiders have opened 3-0 only in 2002, 2021 and now 2026. The 2002 team went 11-5 and reached the Super Bowl; the 2021 team went 10-7 and lost a Wild Card game at Cincinnati. This win also moves the Raiders to 5-4 in the series with New Orleans and gives them three wins in the last four meetings, each by 8 points or more.

Why it matters. Two prior 3-0 starts is a thin sample for forecasting, but both produced winning seasons, and in a franchise that has had only three such starts in 28 years the rarity itself is the point. The series table adds a smaller note: the Raiders have won three of the last four against New Orleans after losing three of the four before that, and the 35 points ties their most ever in the series, matching the 2016 game in the same stadium.

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