Game recap

Chargers @ Bills

2026 Wk 3 · BUF 24, LAC 16

Buffalo gave the ball away five times and still won behind 77 fourth-quarter rushing yards from James Cook.

FanIQ Research · September 28, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

Buffalo gave the ball away five times and won. Since 1999 a team has done that 22 times in 6,995 wins.

Rare

Buffalo's five giveaways and what the Chargers did with each

Qtr	Clock	Giveaway	Score before	Chargers' next possession
1	14:53	James Cook fumble, recovered by Daiyan Henley at the BUF 47	0-0	Touchdown, Herbert 1-yd pass to Keaton Mitchell
1	3:31	Allen pass intercepted by Genesis Smith at the BUF 44	LAC 7, BUF 0	Dicker 31-yd field goal
2	15:00	Allen pass intercepted by Genesis Smith at the LAC 10	LAC 10, BUF 0	Dicker 45-yd field goal missed
3	4:00	Dalton Kincaid fumble, forced by Tarheeb Still, recovered by Tony Jefferson at the LAC 17	LAC 13, BUF 10	Punt
4	15:00	Allen strip-sacked by Khalil Mack, recovered by Henley at the BUF 28	LAC 13, BUF 10	Herbert intercepted three plays later

Winning teams with 5 or more giveaways, regular season, 2012 to 2026 (22 since 1999)

Season	Week	Game	Winner	INT	Fumbles lost	Score
2012	1	PHI @ CLE	PHI	4	1	PHI 17, CLE 16
2012	11	ARI @ ATL	ATL	5	1	ATL 23, ARI 19
2015	17	LAC @ DEN	DEN	2	4	DEN 27, LAC 20
2019	3	PIT @ SF	SF	2	3	SF 24, PIT 20
2020	14	KC @ MIA	KC	3	2	KC 33, MIA 27
2024	10	DET @ HOU	DET	5	0	DET 26, HOU 23
2024	16	PHI @ WAS	WAS	2	3	WAS 36, PHI 33
2026	3	LAC @ BUF	BUF	2	3	BUF 24, LAC 16

Two interceptions and three lost fumbles, and the Chargers turned the five of them into 10 points: a touchdown, a field goal, a missed field goal, a punt and an interception of their own. Los Angeles gave the ball away once. Since 1999 the winning team has had five or more giveaways in 22 regular season games out of 6,995, roughly one win in 300, and this is the first time it has happened in 2026.

Why it matters. Five giveaways usually decides a game on its own, because each one hands the opponent a short field and removes a scoring chance. Buffalo survived it for two reasons visible in the table: the Chargers scored a touchdown on only one of the five short fields, and the last giveaway was answered by a Buffalo takeaway before it could cost anything. That is the rarest shape a win can take, and it says more about the Chargers' finishing than about the Bills' offense.

The Chargers led 13-10 with a third down at the Buffalo 23. The next three scoring plays all belonged to the Bills.

Trend

Every scoring play and the interception that turned the game

Qtr	Clock	Team	Play	Score after
1	10:37	LAC	Herbert 1-yd TD pass to Keaton Mitchell	LAC 7, BUF 0
1	0:37	LAC	Dicker 31-yd FG	LAC 10, BUF 0
2	10:26	LAC	Dicker 45-yd FG missed	LAC 10, BUF 0
2	6:05	BUF	Bass 28-yd FG	LAC 10, BUF 3
2	0:19	BUF	Allen 1-yd TD run	LAC 10, BUF 10
3	6:15	LAC	Dicker 21-yd FG	LAC 13, BUF 10
4	13:38	LAC	Herbert intercepted by C.J. Gardner-Johnson at the BUF 1, returned 41 yards	LAC 13, BUF 10
4	7:37	BUF	Allen 1-yd TD run	BUF 17, LAC 13
4	3:16	BUF	Cook 3-yd TD run	BUF 24, LAC 13
4	1:59	LAC	Dicker 33-yd FG	BUF 24, LAC 16

Teams leading on the first play of the 4th quarter, regular season since 1999

Lead entering 4th	Team-games	Won	Win rate
Any lead	6596	5458	82.7%
1 to 3 points	1172	716	61.1%

Buffalo did not lead until 7:37 remained. Los Angeles went ahead 13-10 in the third quarter and had third and 5 at the Buffalo 23 with 13:38 left and a 74.7 percent win probability. Herbert's deep throw for Marquez Valdes-Scantling was picked off at the 1 by C.J. Gardner-Johnson, an 18 point swing in win probability, the largest single play of the game. Buffalo then went 14 plays for the lead, a drive that survived three offensive holding penalties, one of them wiping out a 43-yard touchdown pass, and Cook's touchdown on the next possession made it 24-13. A three point lead entering the fourth quarter has held up 61 percent of the time since 1999.

Why it matters. The interception did two things at once: it erased a Chargers possession that was already inside field goal range, and it gave Buffalo the ball at its 42 instead of deep in its own end. Everything after it ran through the Bills' ground game, so the swing was not one lucky play but the moment the game's dynamic changed. The 61 percent baseline shows a three point lead entering the fourth is a coin flip with an edge, not a lock, which is why the Chargers' decision to throw deep on third and 5 from the 23 carried so much weight.

James Cook: 13 carries for 77 yards through three quarters, then 11 carries for 77 yards in the fourth.

Split

James Cook by quarter

Qtr	Carries	Yards	First downs	TD	EPA/carry
1	4	24	1	0	-1.116
2	6	35	1	0	0.113
3	3	18	1	0	0.003
4	11	77	5	1	0.388

Both offenses by quarter (pass and run plays)

Team	Qtr	Plays	EPA/play	Yards	Success%
BUF	1	12	-1.018	21	33.3%
BUF	2	20	0.354	140	55.0%
BUF	3	7	-0.385	55	28.6%
BUF	4	23	0.284	135	60.9%
LAC	1	16	0.036	48	56.3%
LAC	2	17	-0.006	105	41.2%
LAC	3	17	0.241	114	58.8%
LAC	4	14	-0.653	81	28.6%

Fourth quarters of 75+ rushing yards by one player, regular season, 2025 to 2026

Season	Week	Game	Player	Q4 carries	Q4 yards
2025	10	ATL @ IND	Jonathan Taylor	6	113
2025	2	DEN @ IND	Jonathan Taylor	10	98
2025	10	BUF @ MIA	De'Von Achane	7	97
2025	16	PIT @ DET	Jaylen Warren	2	90
2025	8	NYG @ PHI	Tank Bigsby	7	86
2025	16	PHI @ WAS	Saquon Barkley	7	78
2026	3	LAC @ BUF	James Cook	11	77
2025	18	NYJ @ BUF	Ray Davis	9	76

Cook's first carry of the game was the fumble that set up the Chargers' touchdown, which is why his first quarter EPA sits at minus 1.116 per carry. In the fourth quarter he ran 11 times for 77 yards, five first downs and the touchdown that made it 24-13, and Buffalo's offense went from minus 0.385 per play in the third quarter to plus 0.284. His 154 yards on 24 carries is the third highest regular season total of his career, behind 216 against Carolina in 2025 and 179 against Dallas in 2023. Only seven fourth quarters in the entire 2025 regular season produced 75 rushing yards from one player.

Why it matters. A fourth quarter of 11 carries is a team choosing to close a game on the ground, and it only works if the runs keep producing first downs. Five of Cook's 11 did, which is what turned a 13-10 deficit into two touchdown drives that also drained the clock. The rarity table puts it in context: a 75 yard fourth quarter happened about seven times across all of last season, and the Chargers had not allowed the Bills a productive quarter on the ground until then.

Six Chargers possessions reached the Buffalo 27 or closer. They produced one touchdown.

Comparison

Possessions that reached the opponent's 27-yard line or closer

Team	Qtr	Plays	Closest snap	Result
LAC	1	9	BUF 1	TD, Herbert to Mitchell
LAC	1	6	BUF 13	FG, Dicker 31 yds
LAC	2	11	BUF 27	FG missed, Dicker 45 yds
LAC	3	14	BUF 1	FG, Dicker 21 yds
LAC	4	3	BUF 23	Interception
LAC	4	8	BUF 15	FG, Dicker 33 yds
BUF	2	10	LAC 10	FG, Bass 28 yds
BUF	2	11	LAC 1	TD, Allen run
BUF	4	14	LAC 1	TD, Allen run
BUF	4	7	LAC 3	TD, Cook run

Red zone plays per touchdown, this game versus the 2025 regular season

Team	This game: plays inside the 20	TD	2025: plays inside the 20	2025 TD	2025 plays per TD
LAC	15	1	166	28	5.9
BUF	10	3	199	44	4.5

The two offenses gained almost the same yardage, 348 for Los Angeles and 351 for Buffalo, and the Chargers converted 6 of 15 third downs to Buffalo's 6 of 12. The difference was what happened close to the goal line. The Chargers' third quarter drive had second and 1 at the Buffalo 1, took false starts on two of the next three snaps, and kicked a 21-yard field goal. Their 15 snaps inside the 20 produced one touchdown, against a 2025 rate of one every 5.9 snaps. Buffalo's four trips into the same range yielded three touchdowns.

Why it matters. A 16 point day on six scoring-range possessions is the entire margin of this game: convert two of those field goals into touchdowns and the Chargers win comfortably. The mechanism is specific, not vague red zone trouble. Two false starts from the 1 yard line and a deep throw on third and 5 from the 23 were the plays that turned potential touchdowns into three points and zero. The Bills, whose 2025 red zone rate was already the better of the two, were more efficient again on fewer chances.

Josh Allen threw no touchdowns and two interceptions, took four sacks, and ran for both Buffalo touchdowns. The Bills are 3-6 in his two-pick, no-TD games.

Anomaly

Every Allen regular season game with 2+ interceptions and 0 TD passes

Season	Week	Opp	Comp/Att	Pass yds	INT	Rush TD	Result
2018	4	GB	16/33	151	2	0	L 0-22
2018	14	NYJ	18/36	206	2	1	L 23-27
2019	4	NE	13/28	153	3	1	L 10-16
2021	9	JAX	31/47	264	2	0	L 6-9
2021	17	ATL	11/26	120	3	2	W 29-15
2022	9	NYJ	18/34	205	2	2	L 17-20
2024	10	IND	22/37	280	2	1	W 30-20
2025	12	HOU	24/34	253	2	0	L 19-23
2026	3	LAC	16/26	204	2	2	W 24-16

Quarterback rushing touchdowns, regular season, 1999 to 2026

Rank	Quarterback	Rush TD
1	Josh Allen	85
2	Cam Newton	75
3	Jalen Hurts	63
4	Mike Vick	36
4	Aaron Rodgers	36
4	Lamar Jackson	36

Allen finished 16 of 26 for 204 yards with no touchdown passes, two interceptions and four sacks, then scored twice on 1 yard runs, at 0:19 of the second quarter and 7:37 of the fourth. This is the ninth regular season game of his career with two or more interceptions and no touchdown pass. Buffalo has won three of them, and in two of the three wins he ran for two scores. The two runs move him to 85 career regular season rushing touchdowns, ten clear of Cam Newton for the most by a quarterback since 1999.

Why it matters. A quarterback line this poor through the air normally loses, and Allen's own history says so: six losses in the previous eight such games. What separates the wins is the goal line running, which converts short fields into touchdowns without asking the passing game to finish drives. Allen's lead over Newton is now large enough that it is a structural part of how Buffalo scores, not a footnote, and this game is a clean example of the offense leaning on it when the throws were not there.

The Chargers' fourth 0-3 start since 1999, and Buffalo's third straight win in a series it had lost four in a row.

Milestone

Chargers seasons that opened 0-3, 1999 to 2026

Season	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
2000	L 6-9	L 27-28	L 10-42
2003	L 14-27	L 13-37	L 10-24
2017	L 21-24	L 17-19	L 10-24
2026	L 14-26	L 14-26	L 16-24

Chargers versus Bills, every meeting in the database

Season	Week	Game	Score	Winner	Margin
2000	7	LAC @ BUF	BUF 27, LAC 24	BUF	3
2001	7	BUF @ LAC	LAC 27, BUF 24	LAC	3
2002	15	LAC @ BUF	BUF 20, LAC 13	BUF	7
2005	11	BUF @ LAC	LAC 48, BUF 10	LAC	38
2006	13	LAC @ BUF	LAC 24, BUF 21	LAC	3
2008	7	LAC @ BUF	BUF 23, LAC 14	BUF	9
2011	14	BUF @ LAC	LAC 37, BUF 10	LAC	27
2014	3	LAC @ BUF	LAC 22, BUF 10	LAC	12
2017	11	BUF @ LAC	LAC 54, BUF 24	LAC	30
2018	2	LAC @ BUF	LAC 31, BUF 20	LAC	11
2020	12	LAC @ BUF	BUF 27, LAC 17	BUF	10
2023	16	BUF @ LAC	BUF 24, LAC 22	BUF	2
2026	3	LAC @ BUF	BUF 24, LAC 16	BUF	8

Los Angeles has scored 14, 14 and 16 points in its three games and is 0-3 for the fourth time since 1999. The 2017 team, the most recent of the three earlier starts, lost its first three by a combined 19 points; this one has lost by 12, 12 and 8, a combined 32. In the series, the Chargers won four straight meetings from 2011 through 2018 by an average of 20 points. Buffalo has now taken the last three by 10, 2 and 8, and the Chargers still lead the series 7-6 in the database.

Why it matters. An 0-3 start with no game above 16 points is a scoring problem more than a schedule problem, and the head to head table shows how much the balance has shifted: the Chargers' four straight wins in this series came by blowout margins, while Buffalo's three straight have all been one score games. The 2017 precedent matters for the Chargers because that team recovered to finish 9-7 after its 0-3 start, but that team lost its three by a combined 19 points, not 32.

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