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Raiders @ Chargers

2026 Wk 2 · LAC 14, LV 26

The Raiders scored the game's last 16 points, 9 of them off a fumble, a pick and a safety inside 3:52.

Both run games averaged worse than minus 0.40 EPA per carry on 25 or more attempts. Since 1999 that had happened in exactly one other game.

Rare

Games since 1999 where both teams ran 25 or more times at minus 0.40 EPA per carry or worse

SeasonGameTeamRunsYardsEPA/carry
2004WAS at NYG, Wk 2NYG2862-0.419
2004WAS at NYG, Wk 2WAS28108-0.420
2026LV at LAC, Wk 2LAC32127-0.488
2026LV at LAC, Wk 2LV2660-0.441

Running backs in this game

PlayerTeamCarriesYardsLongEPA/carrySuccess%
Omarion HamptonLAC239417-0.47934.8%
Ashton JeantyLV21489-0.58319.0%
Keaton MitchellLAC52411-0.16420.0%
Mike WashingtonLV373-0.4800.0%

Hampton's 94 yards look healthy until the lost fumble at the Raiders 46 with 3:52 left, a single play worth minus 7.42 expected points; on his other 22 carries he averaged minus 0.163. Jeanty has no such outlier: 21 carries, a long of 9, and a success rate of 19.0 percent. The Raiders won anyway because their pass plays went the other way at plus 0.193 EPA each.

Why it matters. Two run games this inefficient in the same game is a once-since-1999 event, and the two sides got there differently. The Chargers' number is one catastrophic play sitting on top of a mediocre afternoon; the Raiders' number is 21 carries of nothing from their featured back. That shapes the read going forward: Los Angeles can point to a fumble, while the Raiders averaged 2.3 yards a carry with Jeanty and still won by 12 because Kirk Cousins carried the offense.

Los Angeles led 14-10 with 9:53 left in the third quarter. The Raiders scored the final 16 points, the last 9 inside the final 3:03.

Trend

Every scoring play

QtrClockTeamPlayLVLAC
211:57LVKirk Cousins 40 yd pass to Tre Tucker70
25:30LACOmarion Hampton 1 yd run77
20:08LVMatt Gay 59 yd field goal107
39:53LACJustin Herbert 10 yd pass to Oronde Gadsden II1014
33:59LVKirk Cousins 13 yd pass to Cody White1714
43:03LVKirk Cousins 11 yd pass to Cody White2414
41:46LVSafety, holding in the end zone on Joe Alt2614

The Chargers' final three possessions

StartClockResultDetail
LAC 243:52Lost fumbleHampton stripped by Nakobe Dean at the LV 46; Jeremy Chinn returned it 43 yards to the LAC 16
LAC 352:29InterceptionHerbert picked off by Hezekiah Masses at the LAC 48, his second of the game
LAC 61:46SafetyHolding in the end zone on second and 10, one snap after a punt was downed at the 6

The lead changed hands twice, and Los Angeles held it for 5:54 of game clock in the third quarter. Three plays after Chinn's return the Raiders scored from the 11, and the two Chargers possessions that followed produced an interception and a safety. Cody White, who had 1 regular-season touchdown catch in his career before this game, caught 2 passes and both went for scores.

Why it matters. A 12-point final overstates how separated these teams were for 56 minutes: the Raiders led by 3 or trailed for the whole second half until the fumble. Both of their fourth-quarter scores came off field position rather than sustained drives, a 43-yard fumble return that left 16 yards to cover and a punt downed at the 6 that set up the safety. The Chargers' offense had already gone cold, but this sequence is what turned a one-score game into a two-score final in under four minutes.

The Chargers ran 29 plays at plus 0.23 EPA in the second and third quarters, and 33 plays at minus 0.70 in the first and fourth.

Split

Offensive efficiency by quarter, pass and run plays

TeamQtrPlaysEPA/playSuccess%YardsTurnovers
LAC117-0.57723.5%501
LAC2190.21157.9%1230
LAC3100.27740.0%880
LAC416-0.82218.8%492
LV113-0.70238.5%591
LV2130.36130.8%1180
LV3170.26547.1%930
LV414-0.39821.4%380

Same plays, grouped by window

TeamWindowPlaysEPA/playSuccess%Yards
LACQ2 and Q3290.23351.7%211
LACQ1 and Q433-0.69621.2%99
LVQ2 and Q3300.30740.0%211
LVQ1 and Q427-0.54429.6%97

Both offenses had the same shape. The first quarter produced a Cousins interception at the LAC 15, a Herbert interception returned 29 yards, a missed 58-yard field goal and a Raiders stop on fourth and 1 at the 1. The middle two quarters were productive for both sides, 211 yards each. Then the Chargers' fourth quarter: 16 snaps, 2 sacks, a lost fumble and an interception.

Why it matters. Quarter splits on 10 to 19 plays are noisy, so the useful part is the symmetry rather than any single number: both offenses worked only in the same 30-minute window. The Chargers' fourth quarter is the one that decided the game, and it is the one with turnovers in it, which EPA punishes hardest; the minus 7.42 fumble is one sixteenth of that sample. Even without the turnovers it was a quarter of 49 yards on 16 plays.

Los Angeles brought the fourth-best third-down offense of 2025 into this game and converted 5 of 14.

Comparison

Third down conversion, this game versus 2025 regular season

TeamThis gameRate2025 season2025 rate2025 rank
LAC5 of 1435.7%115 of 25046.0%4th
LV4 of 1330.8%73 of 21334.3%29th

2025 regular season third-down conversion, league top 5

RankTeamConversionsRate
1SF106 of 20950.7%
2GB100 of 20648.5%
3BUF95 of 20546.3%
4LAC115 of 25046.0%
5CIN97 of 21844.5%

The Chargers faced 250 third downs last season, the most of any team, and converted 46.0 percent of them. Here they converted 35.7 percent, and their two biggest fourth-quarter third downs ended in a strip sack on third and 7 at the LAC 40 and an interception on third and 11 at the LAC 34. The Raiders were worse at 30.8 percent, but they came in at 34.3 percent, so their drop was 3.5 points against the Chargers' 10.3.

Why it matters. Third down is where the Chargers' 2025 offense separated itself from a below-average per-play profile: 25th in EPA per play, 4th on third down. When the conversion rate falls back to the pack there is nothing underneath it, which is how an offense that gained 310 yards on pass and run plays produced 14 points. Fourteen third downs is a small sample, so the direction matters more than the exact size of the drop.

The Raiders' first win at SoFi Stadium since 2020, and the end of a four-game losing streak in the series.

Milestone

Raiders at Chargers, every game at SoFi Stadium

SeasonWeekResultMargin
20209LV 31, LAC 26LV by 5
20214LAC 28, LV 14LAC by 14
20221LAC 24, LV 19LAC by 5
20234LAC 24, LV 17LAC by 7
20241LAC 22, LV 10LAC by 12
202513LAC 31, LV 14LAC by 17
20262LV 26, LAC 14LV by 12

Last six meetings

SeasonWeekHomeResult
202315LVLV 63, LAC 21
20241LACLAC 22, LV 10
202418LVLAC 34, LV 20
20252LVLAC 20, LV 9
202513LACLAC 31, LV 14
20262LACLV 26, LAC 14

The Raiders had lost five straight visits to SoFi Stadium after winning the first one in 2020, and four straight in the series overall by a combined 54 points. Their last series win before this one was the 63-21 game at home on December 14, 2023. The 12-point margin is their largest at SoFi.

Why it matters. Four straight losses by a combined 54 points said the gap in this series was not close, and three of those four came with the Raiders scoring 14 or fewer. A 12-point road win in the next meeting is the strongest single counterpoint the Raiders have produced since the 2023 blowout, and it came without a functioning run game. Division series tend to track roster quality more than matchups, so one result is a data point, not a trend.

Matt Gay's 59-yarder with 8 seconds left in the half is tied for the fourth-longest field goal by a Raider since 1999.

Milestone

Longest made field goals by the Raiders since 1999

RankSeasonWeekKickerYardsOpponent
120111Sebastian Janikowski63at DEN
2200916Sebastian Janikowski61at CLE
3202518Daniel Carlson60vs KC
4201016Sebastian Janikowski59vs IND
420262Matt Gay59at LAC
620087Sebastian Janikowski57vs NYJ
6201215Sebastian Janikowski57vs KC
6201414Sebastian Janikowski57vs SF

Only five Raiders kicks of 59 yards or more have been made since 1999, against 88 league-wide. This one came with 8 seconds left in the half and turned 7-7 into a 10-7 lead. The Chargers had already missed from 58 in the first quarter, so the two long attempts in this game went one for two.

Why it matters. A 59-yard make is 3 points from a spot where most teams punt, and it changes the arithmetic of the next quarter: at 10-7 the Chargers needed a touchdown rather than a field goal to take the lead, and at 14-10 the Raiders needed only one touchdown to get it back, which they got. Four of the five longest makes in the list belong to Janikowski or Carlson; this is the only one by a kicker other than those two.

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