Game recap
Patriots @ Seahawks
2026 Wk 1 · SEA 13, NE 10
Fourth-and-1 at midfield is where most trailing teams either run for the yard or punt; a 45-yard touchdown throw from that spot is the rarest way to convert it, and it happened with a backup who had been on the field for three quarters. The play was worth 6.1 expected points and swung Seattle's win probability by 34 points, the second-largest swing of the game behind only the interception that ended it. It turned a 10-3 deficit into a tie with the rest of the fourth quarter to play.
Lock's fourth-and-1 bomb to Smith-Njigba: the sixth of its kind since 1999
RareSam Darnold's night lasted three dropbacks: two passes, then a sack at 12:27 of the first quarter that sent him off injured. Drew Lock threw every Seattle pass after that. Down 10-3 with 11:38 left, facing fourth-and-1 at the New England 45, he hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a 45-yard touchdown that pulled Seattle level at 10. Since 1999 a trailing team has thrown a fourth-and-1 touchdown pass of 40 or more yards in a fourth quarter only six times, and only three of those (Manning to Beckham in 2016, Goff to Wright in 2022, and this one) pulled the thrower's team even or ahead.
Fourth-and-1 TD passes of 40+ yards by a trailing team in the 4th quarter, 1999-2026
| Season | Game | Passer to receiver | Yards | Score before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | NO @ ATL | A.Brooks to J.Horn | 57 | NO 3, ATL 17 |
| 2004 | IND @ JAX | B.Leftwich to J.Smith | 40 | JAX 9, IND 17 |
| 2015 | TEN @ TB | J.Winston to A.Seferian-Jenkins | 41 | TB 7, TEN 42 |
| 2016 | BAL @ NYG | E.Manning to O.Beckham | 66 | NYG 20, BAL 23 |
| 2022 | DET @ NYJ | J.Goff to B.Wright | 51 | DET 13, NYJ 17 |
| 2026 | NE @ SEA | D.Lock to J.Smith-Njigba | 45 | SEA 3, NE 10 |
Seattle quarterbacks, this game
| Passer | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Sacked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Lock | 16 | 22 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Why it matters. Fourth-and-1 at midfield is where most trailing teams either run for the yard or punt; a 45-yard touchdown throw from that spot is the rarest way to convert it, and it happened with a backup who had been on the field for three quarters. The play was worth 6.1 expected points and swung Seattle's win probability by 34 points, the second-largest swing of the game behind only the interception that ended it. It turned a 10-3 deficit into a tie with the rest of the fourth quarter to play.
Three fourth-quarter picks for Drake Maye, the first passer to do it since 2023
RareNew England led 10-3 entering the fourth quarter and Maye had not thrown an interception. Then three came in 14 minutes: at the Seattle 3 with a chance to go up two scores, at his own 47 with the game tied at 10, and in the end zone from the Seattle 16 with 26 seconds left and New England down 13-10. He finished 23 of 33 for 178 yards. Since 1999 a passer has thrown three or more interceptions in a single fourth quarter 58 times; Zach Wilson in Week 2 of 2023 was the last before this one.
Passers with 3+ interceptions in one 4th quarter, 2019-2026
| Season | Week | Game | Passer | 4th-qtr INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1 | TEN @ CLE | Baker Mayfield | 3 |
| 2019 | 7 | JAX @ CIN | Andy Dalton | 3 |
| 2021 | 2 | CIN @ CHI | Joe Burrow | 3 |
| 2021 | 11 | HOU @ TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 3 |
| 2021 | 13 | DAL @ NO | Taysom Hill | 3 |
| 2022 | 2 | TB @ NO | Jameis Winston | 3 |
| 2022 | 16 | GB @ MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 3 |
| 2023 | 2 | NYJ @ DAL | Zach Wilson | 3 |
| 2026 | 1 | NE @ SEA | Drake Maye | 3 |
Maye's three interceptions
| Clock (Q4) | Down and distance | Line of scrimmage | Score | Picked off by | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:27 | 2nd and 9 | SEA 45 | NE 10, SEA 3 | N.Pritchett | SEA 3 |
| 9:25 | 3rd and 14 | NE 22 | NE 10, SEA 10 | J.Love | NE 47 |
| 0:26 | 3rd and 5 | SEA 16 | NE 10, SEA 13 | J.Jobe | End zone |
Why it matters. The first interception is the one that decided the game's shape: New England was at the Seattle 45 leading by seven, and a score there makes it a two-possession game with under 15 minutes left. Instead the ball came back at the Seattle 3, and the next Seattle drive produced the tying touchdown. Three fourth-quarter interceptions in one game is a roughly twice-a-season event league-wide since 1999, and this one came from a quarterback who had none through three quarters.
A Super Bowl rematch to open the season, and a fifth straight Seattle win in the series
MilestoneOnly twice since 1999 has a season opened with a rematch of the previous February's Super Bowl: Carolina at Denver in 2016, and this game. Seattle had beaten New England 29-13 in that Super Bowl seven months earlier. Wednesday made it five straight Seahawks wins over the Patriots (2016, 2020, 2024, the Super Bowl, and now this one), and Seattle leads the all-time series 6-3, with the Patriots' last win coming in the 2014 season Super Bowl.
Season openers that were rematches of the prior Super Bowl, 1999-2026
| Season | Opener | Prior Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | CAR @ DEN | CAR vs DEN |
| 2026 | NE @ SEA | SEA vs NE |
Patriots vs Seahawks, all meetings in the database
| Season | Round | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Wk 6 | SEA @ NE | NE 30, SEA 20 | NE |
| 2008 | Wk 14 | NE @ SEA | NE 24, SEA 21 | NE |
| 2012 | Wk 6 | NE @ SEA | SEA 24, NE 23 | SEA |
| 2014 | Super Bowl | NE vs SEA | NE 28, SEA 24 | NE |
| 2016 | Wk 10 | SEA @ NE | SEA 31, NE 24 | SEA |
| 2020 | Wk 2 | NE @ SEA | SEA 35, NE 30 | SEA |
| 2024 | Wk 2 | SEA @ NE | SEA 23, NE 20 | SEA |
| 2025 | Super Bowl | SEA vs NE | SEA 29, NE 13 | SEA |
| 2026 | Wk 1 | NE @ SEA | SEA 13, NE 10 | SEA |
Why it matters. Super Bowl rematches in Week 1 are rare because the schedule is built before the previous season ends; the league has to choose to put the two finalists together. The 2016 version was a one-point game and this one was a three-point game, but the series behind it has become one-sided: New England led it 3-1 before the streak began, and Seattle has now won five straight, four of them by seven points or fewer.
Down 10-0 midway through the third quarter, Seattle scored the last 13 points
TrendNew England's points came on a 2-yard Maye touchdown pass to Eli Raridon and a 50-yard Andy Borregales field goal, and 10-0 held until 3:16 of the third quarter. From there it was a 30-yard Jason Myers field goal, the fourth-and-1 touchdown, and a 26-yard Myers field goal with 5:53 left. Seattle's worst point in the game was 10 points down. In the 2025 regular season the eventual winner trailed by 10 or more at some point in only 37 of 271 games.
Scoring plays
| Qtr | Clock | Team | Play | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 9:14 | NE | Maye 2-yd TD pass to Raridon | NE 7, SEA 0 |
| 3 | 11:53 | NE | Borregales 50-yd FG | NE 10, SEA 0 |
| 3 | 3:16 | SEA | Myers 30-yd FG | NE 10, SEA 3 |
| 4 | 11:38 | SEA | Lock 45-yd TD pass to Smith-Njigba, 4th and 1 | NE 10, SEA 10 |
| 4 | 5:53 | SEA | Myers 26-yd FG | SEA 13, NE 10 |
Offense by half (pass and run plays)
| Team | Half | Plays | EPA/play | Yards | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 1st | 31 | +0.079 | 130 | 45.2% |
| NE | 2nd | 36 | -0.272 | 147 | 38.9% |
| SEA | 1st | 25 | -0.095 | 120 | 40.0% |
| SEA | 2nd | 22 | +0.248 | 166 | 40.9% |
2025 regular season: how often the winner trailed by 10+
| Games | Winner trailed by 10+ at some point | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | 37 | 13.7% |
Why it matters. A 10-point deficit in the second half is usually decisive in a low-scoring game, because the trailing team needs two scoring drives against a defense that has allowed almost nothing. Seattle got there with three drives in a row, and the half-by-half numbers show why: New England's offense went from +0.079 to -0.272 EPA per play across the break while Seattle's went from -0.095 to +0.248. Last season only about one game in seven was won by a team that had been down 10.
New England's fourth quarter: 22 plays, three picks, three sacks, -0.32 EPA a play
SplitThe Patriots had the better first half (+0.079 EPA per play to Seattle's -0.095) and a 10-3 lead with 15 minutes to go. The fourth quarter flipped the game: every one of Maye's three sacks and three interceptions came after the 14:27 mark, and New England's 22 fourth-quarter plays produced 81 yards at -0.324 EPA per play. Seattle's fourth quarter went the other way, 116 yards on 12 plays at +0.638.
New England offense by quarter (pass and run plays)
| Qtr | Plays | EPA/play | Yards | INT | Sacks | First downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | -0.101 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | 18 | +0.208 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | 14 | -0.190 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | 22 | -0.324 | 81 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Seattle offense by quarter (pass and run plays)
| Qtr | Plays | EPA/play | Yards | INT | Sacks | First downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | -0.100 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | -0.090 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | -0.220 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | +0.638 | 116 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Why it matters. New England ran the most plays of any quarter in the fourth and got the least out of them. That combination, high volume at strongly negative efficiency, is what a protect-the-lead offense looks like when the lead disappears and the quarterback has to chase the game: the sacks and interceptions all cluster in the final 15 minutes. Seattle's fourth quarter was small in volume, 12 plays, but one of them was a 45-yard touchdown, which is why the per-play number is so large.
Seattle won on 2-of-11 third downs and zero red-zone touchdowns
AnomalyThe winning side ran 20 fewer plays (47 to 67), had four fewer first downs (13 to 17), converted 2 of 11 third downs, and ran six plays inside the New England 20 without a touchdown. Since 1999 a team has won with two or fewer conversions on ten or more third-down tries 281 times in 7,259 team wins, about one in 26; it happened ten times in 2025. Seattle got there because the two plays it did not need a third down for, the 45-yard touchdown and a 14-yard Lock scramble to the 3, set up 10 of its 13 points.
This game, both offenses (pass and run plays)
| Team | Plays | First downs | 3rd down | Red-zone plays | Red-zone TD | EPA/play | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 47 | 13 | 2 of 11 | 6 | 0 | +0.066 | 0 |
| NE | 67 | 17 | 6 of 16 | 2 | 1 | -0.110 | 3 |
Winners with 2 or fewer conversions on 10+ third downs, 1999-2026
| Winning team-games | With <= 2 of 10+ on 3rd down | Share | In 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7259 | 281 | 3.9% | 10 |
Why it matters. Third-down conversion rate is the stat that tracks sustained drives, and 18% usually means an offense that punts all night. Seattle's offense did punt most of the night; what made the number survivable was that the game's decisive gains came on first down (the 14-yard scramble) and fourth down (the touchdown), neither of which counts here, plus three New England turnovers that kept the Patriots' volume from turning into points. Winning this way is about a 1-in-26 event since 1999.
Wednesday football, 23 points: tied for the second-lowest kickoff game since 2002
RareThe league has played five Wednesday games since 1999, and only one other season opener fell on one, Cowboys at Giants in 2012. The 23 combined points tie 2008, 2009, and 2010 for the second-lowest total in a season's first game since 2002; only Packers at Bears in 2019, a 10-3 game, was lower.
Wednesday games, 1999-2026
| Season | Week | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 1 | DAL @ NYG | DAL 24, NYG 17 |
| 2020 | 12 | BAL @ PIT | PIT 19, BAL 14 |
| 2024 | 17 | KC @ PIT | KC 29, PIT 10 |
| 2024 | 17 | BAL @ HOU | BAL 31, HOU 2 |
| 2026 | 1 | NE @ SEA | SEA 13, NE 10 |
Lowest-scoring season-opening games, 2002-2026
| Season | Game | Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | GB @ CHI | GB 10, CHI 3 | 13 |
| 2008 | WAS @ NYG | NYG 16, WAS 7 | 23 |
| 2009 | TEN @ PIT | PIT 13, TEN 10 | 23 |
| 2010 | MIN @ NO | NO 14, MIN 9 | 23 |
| 2026 | NE @ SEA | SEA 13, NE 10 | 23 |
| 2002 | SF @ NYG | SF 16, NYG 13 | 29 |
| 2003 | NYJ @ WAS | WAS 16, NYJ 13 | 29 |
| 2018 | ATL @ PHI | PHI 18, ATL 12 | 30 |
Why it matters. Kickoff games are scheduled as showcases, so a 13-10 final is an outlier against the slot's purpose, not just against the average game. The low totals share a pattern: all four 23-point openers (2008, 2009, 2010, and this one) were hosted by the defending champion, whose defense had just finished a title run. The Wednesday date is its own rarity, five games in 27 seasons and only the second opener.
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