Game recap

Packers @ Vikings

2026 Wk 1 · MIN 39, GB 22

A five point lead with seven minutes left is normally a game the leader closes out; a team in that spot losing by two scores has happened six times in 27 seasons, about once every four or five years league wide. How it happened matters as much as the count. Minnesota needed 18 yards of offense for 22 points, so this was a turnover collapse by Green Bay far more than a comeback drive by Minnesota, and the first of the three giveaways was a penalty on a play that would have been a Green Bay interception in its own end zone.

FanIQ Research · September 14, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

Minnesota trailed 22-17 with seven minutes left and won by 17. Since 1999 that has happened six times.

Rare

Green Bay led 22-17 when Minnesota snapped a second down run with 7:36 to play. Minnesota's first touchdown came with 6:42 left and its last with 4:03 left: 22 points in 2 minutes and 39 seconds of game clock. An Aaron Jones 3 yard run, a two point pass from Carson Wentz to Justin Jefferson, a Jordan Mason 1 yard run, and a Wentz 9 yard pass to Jefferson. The three touchdown drives went 3, 1, and 14 yards, 18 yards in total, because each one began with a Green Bay giveaway or penalty: a defensive holding call on Xavier McKinney that erased an Evan Williams end zone interception, an Andrew Van Ginkel strip sack recovered at the Green Bay 8 and returned to the 1, and a James Pierre interception returned 28 yards to the 14.

Winners that trailed at the 7:00 mark of the fourth quarter and won by 15 or more, 1999 to 2026

Season	Game	Winner	Score at 7:00	Final	Margin
2007	Wk 1, DET @ LV	DET	LV 21, DET 20	DET 36, LV 21	15
2007	Wk 6, CAR @ ARI	CAR	ARI 10, CAR 9	CAR 25, ARI 10	15
2007	Wild Card, WAS @ SEA	SEA	WAS 14, SEA 13	SEA 35, WAS 14	21
2008	Wk 2, GB @ DET	GB	DET 25, GB 24	GB 48, DET 25	23
2011	Wk 13, NYJ @ WAS	NYJ	WAS 16, NYJ 13	NYJ 34, WAS 19	15
2026	Wk 1, GB @ MIN	MIN	GB 22, MIN 17	MIN 39, GB 22	17

Minnesota's four scoring plays in the fourth quarter

Clock	Play	Drive started at	Score after
6:42	Aaron Jones 3 yd TD run	GB 3	MIN 23, GB 22
6:37	Two point pass, Wentz to Jefferson	Same drive	MIN 25, GB 22
4:52	Jordan Mason 1 yd TD run, Reichard PAT	GB 1	MIN 32, GB 22
4:03	Wentz 9 yd TD pass to Jefferson, Reichard PAT	GB 14	MIN 39, GB 22

Why it matters. A five point lead with seven minutes left is normally a game the leader closes out; a team in that spot losing by two scores has happened six times in 27 seasons, about once every four or five years league wide. How it happened matters as much as the count. Minnesota needed 18 yards of offense for 22 points, so this was a turnover collapse by Green Bay far more than a comeback drive by Minnesota, and the first of the three giveaways was a penalty on a play that would have been a Green Bay interception in its own end zone.

Minnesota gained 244 yards. Green Bay gained 419. Minnesota won by 17.

Anomaly

This game, pass and run plays

Team	Plays	Net yards	EPA/play	Success%	Turnovers
MIN	59	244	-0.020	35.6%	1
GB	67	419	-0.175	38.8%	2

Winners outgained by 150 or more yards that won by 15 or more, 1999 to 2026, largest gaps

Season	Game	Winner	Winner yds	Loser yds	Gap	Margin
2002	Wk 14, HOU @ PIT	HOU	48	422	374	18
2019	Divisional, TEN @ BAL	TEN	302	530	228	16
2013	Wk 6, WAS @ DAL	DAL	213	433	220	15
2006	Wk 11, CIN @ NO	CIN	386	595	209	15
2013	Wk 6, LA @ HOU	LA	216	420	204	25
2025	Wk 11, SF @ ARI	SF	284	488	204	19
2026	Wk 1, GB @ MIN	MIN	244	419	175	17

Eighteen games since 1999 fit that description, and this one has the 13th largest gap. Jordan Love threw for 387 yards; Minnesota's two passers combined for 151. Green Bay's edge in yards never became an edge in points because its 67 plays produced minus 0.175 EPA each: the yards came in chunks between an interception, a lost fumble, a failed fourth and 1, and four sacks.

Why it matters. Yardage is the stat that usually tracks the winner, and a 175 yard deficit is the size of gap that decides most games in the other direction. Minnesota's defense turned Green Bay's volume into starting positions at the 3, the 1, and the 14, which is why 244 yards of its own offense were enough. For Green Bay the number to sit with is the minus 0.175 EPA per play: the yards were real, and so was the damage on the plays in between.

Green Bay's fourth quarter, 21 plays at minus 0.94 EPA each, ranks 11th worst of 3,853 since 1999.

Split

Green Bay offense by quarter (pass and run plays)

Qtr	Plays	EPA/play	Yards	Success%	INT	Sacks
1	12	+0.401	112	33.3%	0	0
2	15	+0.172	117	40.0%	0	0
3	19	+0.038	106	47.4%	0	1
4	21	-0.944	84	33.3%	1	3

Minnesota offense by quarter (pass and run plays)

Qtr	Plays	EPA/play	Yards	Success%	INT	Sacks
1	19	-0.291	59	26.3%	1	0
2	16	+0.094	78	37.5%	0	2
3	9	-0.015	32	33.3%	0	0
4	15	+0.200	75	46.7%	0	1

Worst fourth quarters with 20 or more pass and run plays, 1999 to 2026

Rank	Season	Game	Offense	Plays	EPA/play
1	2007	Wk 16, NYG @ BUF	BUF	20	-1.301
2	2003	Wk 16, BAL @ CLE	CLE	22	-1.109
3	2013	Wk 8, WAS @ DEN	WAS	25	-1.102
4	2014	Wk 10, LA @ ARI	LA	22	-1.093
5	2017	Wk 8, MIA @ BAL	MIA	21	-1.089
11	2026	Wk 1, GB @ MIN	GB	21	-0.944

Green Bay ranked fourth in the league in 2025 at plus 0.115 EPA per play. It opened this game above that mark, plus 0.401 in the first quarter and plus 0.274 across 27 first half plays, then fell to minus 0.478 across 40 second half plays. The fourth quarter alone cost 19.83 expected points, and three snaps account for 16.8 of them: the fourth and 1 stop at the Minnesota 17, the strip sack recovered at the Green Bay 8, and the interception returned to the 14.

Why it matters. Quarter splits separate a bad day from a collapse. Green Bay was the better offense for three quarters and led 22-17 entering the fourth, so the final margin comes almost entirely from the last 15 minutes. Three snaps did most of the damage, which is a narrower problem than a broken offense, but two of them handed Minnesota the ball at the 1 and the 14, and the third gave back three points Green Bay had already kicked.

Green Bay gave back a made 40 yard field goal to go for it on fourth and 1, was stopped, and never scored again.

Anomaly

With 13:21 left and a 22-17 lead, Trey Smack's 40 yard field goal was good, but Dallas Turner was offside. Green Bay accepted the penalty, which wiped out the three points and set up fourth and 1 at the Minnesota 17. Jordan Love was stopped for no gain on a quarterback run. That choice has been made twelve times since 1999: seven offenses converted, five of them for touchdowns, and five were stopped. Green Bay's failed snap cost 4.35 expected points and 14.4 points of win probability.

Made field goals erased by a defensive penalty where the offense then went for it on fourth down, 1999 to 2026

Season	Game	Offense	FG erased	Fourth down	Play result	Game result
2004	Wk 15, BAL @ IND	BAL	36 yd	4th and 4	TD pass	L 10-20
2007	Wk 4, CHI @ DET	CHI	21 yd	4th and 1	TD pass	L 27-37
2013	Wk 2, NO @ TB	NO	20 yd	4th and 1	Stopped	W 16-14
2015	Wk 1, GB @ CHI	CHI	27 yd	4th and 1	Converted	L 23-31
2019	Wk 9, GB @ LAC	LAC	19 yd	4th and 1	TD run	W 26-11
2022	Wk 13, TEN @ PHI	PHI	25 yd	4th and 1	Converted	W 35-10
2022	Wk 17, CLE @ WAS	CLE	25 yd	4th and 3	Stopped	W 24-10
2023	Wk 8, NO @ IND	IND	33 yd	4th and 1	TD pass	L 27-38
2023	Wild Card, PHI @ TB	PHI	40 yd	4th and 5	Incomplete	L 9-32
2024	Wk 15, MIA @ HOU	MIA	30 yd	4th and 2	TD pass	L 12-20
2025	Wk 15, CAR @ NO	NO	46 yd	4th and 1	Sacked	W 20-17
2026	Wk 1, GB @ MIN	GB	40 yd	4th and 1	Stopped	L 22-39

Why it matters. Accepting the penalty trades a sure three for a shot at seven, and a stop leaves zero. Up 22-17, the field goal would have made it an eight point game, out of reach of a single touchdown and two point conversion. Instead Minnesota took over at its own 17 with the same five point deficit, and the next 13 minutes produced 22 Minnesota points. The history says the choice itself is close to even, seven conversions against five stops, which is why the result stings more than the decision.

Love (387) and Watson (147) each posted the second best game of his career, in a 17 point loss.

Milestone

Love's two biggest passing days have both come against Minnesota, 389 yards in 2024 and 387 here, and Green Bay lost both. He completed 21 of 42, so the yardage came on chunk plays rather than volume: 9.2 yards per attempt at a 50 percent completion rate. Watson's 81 yard touchdown in the first quarter is the longest catch of his career, and he added a 2 yard score before halftime. A 375 yard passing game in a regular season loss by 17 or more has happened 33 times since 1999.

Jordan Love's top regular season passing games

Season	Wk	Opp	Comp/Att	Yards	TD	INT	Result
2024	4	MIN	32/54	389	4	3	L 29-31
2026	1	MIN	21/42	387	2	1	L 22-39
2025	8	PIT	29/37	360	3	0	W 35-25
2025	4	DAL	31/43	337	3	0	T 40-40
2023	11	LAC	27/40	322	2	0	W 23-20

Christian Watson's top regular season receiving games

Season	Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Yards	TD	Result
2024	11	CHI	4	4	150	0	W
2026	1	MIN	8	6	147	2	L
2024	14	DET	7	4	114	0	L
2025	17	BAL	6	5	113	1	L
2022	12	PHI	6	4	110	1	L

375 or more passing yards in a regular season loss by 17 or more, 1999 to 2026, top five and Love

Season	Passer	Team	Yards	Lost by
2000	Elvis Grbac	KC	504	18
2008	Kurt Warner	ARI	472	21
2010	Matt Cassel	KC	469	20
2025	Jacoby Brissett	ARI	452	19
2004	Marc Bulger	LA	448	28
2026	Jordan Love	GB	387	17

Why it matters. Passing yards in a blowout loss usually pile up in garbage time; these did not. Green Bay led for most of the game, and Love's 81 yard strike to Watson was the play that built the lead. The pattern that should worry Green Bay is the completion rate: 21 of 42 is a lot of empty downs, and the empty downs in the fourth quarter are where the game turned. For Watson, three of his five best games have come against NFC North opponents, which is the sample Green Bay needs him to keep producing in.

Minnesota's 39 points are its most against Green Bay in 57 meetings since 1999.

Milestone

Minnesota's highest scoring games against Green Bay, 1999 to 2026

Season	Wk	Site	Score	MIN pts
2026	1	Home	MIN 39, GB 22	39
2009	8	Away	MIN 38, GB 26	38
2012	17	Home	MIN 37, GB 34	37
2001	6	Home	MIN 35, GB 13	35
2020	1	Home	GB 43, MIN 34	34
2021	11	Home	MIN 34, GB 31	34

Last six Green Bay visits to Minnesota

Season	Wk	Score	Winner
2026	1	MIN 39, GB 22	MIN
2025	18	MIN 16, GB 3	MIN
2024	17	MIN 27, GB 25	MIN
2023	17	GB 33, MIN 10	GB
2022	1	MIN 23, GB 7	MIN
2021	11	MIN 34, GB 31	MIN

Green Bay leads the series 31-24-2 across the 57 meetings since 1999, but Minnesota has now beaten the Packers on three straight visits: 27-25 in 2024, 16-3 in the 2025 finale, and 39-22 here. That matches the 2016 to 2018 run as Minnesota's longest home winning streak in the series since 1999. The previous Minnesota high against Green Bay was 38, set at Lambeau in 2009; the previous home high was 37 in the 2012 regular season finale.

Why it matters. A series that has belonged to Green Bay for a quarter century is turning at one site. Three straight home wins over a division rival do not show up in a season record, but they change how the fixture reads: the last three Green Bay trips here are losses by 2, 13, and 17 points. The 39 points also stand out for who scored them, a Minnesota offense that ranked 28th in the league in 2025 at minus 0.115 EPA per play.

FanIQ answers any NFL stats question with receipts, on your phone.

Get FanIQ free Get it on Google Play