Game recap
Rams @ Seahawks
Conference Championship · 2025 · SEA 31, LA 27
EPA/play is one of the strongest single predictors of which offense played better, and the Rams won that battle by a real margin (+0.121). That the scoreboard still favored Seattle points to situational factors — turnovers, red-zone execution, special teams, or simply which team's good plays came at higher-leverage moments — mattering more than raw per-play quality in this specific game.
The Rams produced better per-play offense than the Seahawks in the NFC Championship — and still lost
AnomalyIn-game EPA/play, NFC Championship
| Team | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 57 | 0.319 | 50.9% | Loss |
| SEA | 65 | 0.198 | 47.7% | Win |
Los Angeles out-gained Seattle on a per-play basis, 0.319 to 0.198 EPA/play, and still lost the game 31-27. Seattle advanced to the Super Bowl despite being the less efficient offense on the field that day.
Why it matters. EPA/play is one of the strongest single predictors of which offense played better, and the Rams won that battle by a real margin (+0.121). That the scoreboard still favored Seattle points to situational factors — turnovers, red-zone execution, special teams, or simply which team's good plays came at higher-leverage moments — mattering more than raw per-play quality in this specific game.
Every 2025 Rams-Seahawks meeting was decided by single digits — including a 1-point classic
MilestoneLA-SEA 2025 season series (all 3 meetings)
| Round | Away | Home | Away Score | Home Score | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | SEA | LA | 19 | 21 | LA +2 |
| Week 16 | LA | SEA | 37 | 38 | SEA +1 |
| NFC Championship | LA | SEA | 27 | 31 | SEA +4 |
Los Angeles won the Week 11 meeting by 2. Seattle won the Week 16 rematch by 1 (38-37). The NFC Championship, the third meeting of the season, was decided by 4 — still Seattle's largest margin in the trilogy, and still a one-score game.
Why it matters. Three meetings in one season, every one decided by a single score, is a strong signal these are simply evenly matched teams rather than one having 'figured out' the other — Seattle's 2-1 edge in the series came down to a cumulative 3 points across three games.
Both offenses played above their own 2025 regular-season averages in the conference title game
ComparisonIn-game EPA/play vs each team's 2025 regular-season average
| Team | This game EPA/play | Season avg EPA/play | Season NFL rank | Delta vs own average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 0.319 | 0.145 | 2nd | +0.174 |
| SEA | 0.198 | 0.033 | 13th | +0.165 |
Los Angeles finished the regular season as the NFL's 2nd-ranked offense (0.145 EPA/play); Seattle finished 13th (0.033). Both raised their games in the NFC Championship by almost identical margins (+0.174 and +0.165) — the gap between them barely changed from their season-long form.
Why it matters. When both teams elevate by nearly the same amount, the pre-existing gap in season-long quality (LA's 2nd-ranked offense vs Seattle's 13th) should have been the deciding factor — the fact that Seattle still won despite conceding the efficiency battle both in-game and by season baseline is what makes this result an outlier.
Seattle controlled the first half; LA's second half was its best stretch — just not enough
SplitScore at end of each quarter (SEA home, LA away)
| Qtr | SEA | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 3 |
| 2 | 17 | 13 |
| 3 | 31 | 27 |
| 4 | 31 | 27 |
First half vs second half efficiency
| Team | Half | Plays | EPA/play | Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | H1 | 32 | 0.143 | 43.8% |
| LA | H2 | 25 | 0.544 | 60.0% |
| SEA | H1 | 31 | 0.346 | 51.6% |
| SEA | H2 | 34 | 0.064 | 44.1% |
Seattle built its lead in the first half (+0.346 EPA/play, a 17-13 edge by intermission). The third quarter was a track meet — both teams traded scores to make it 31-27 — but neither team scored again in the fourth. Los Angeles' second-half EPA/play of 0.544 was the best half posted by either team in the game, but it came too late to close the final 4-point gap.
Why it matters. Los Angeles' second-half surge (0.544 EPA/play, its best of the game) shows the Rams were not outclassed — they were simply playing catch-up against a lead Seattle built earlier, when Seattle's own first-half number (0.346) was the stronger of the two.
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