Game recap
Bills @ Dolphins
2025 Wk 10 · MIA 30, BUF 13
A same-game swing this size for BOTH teams simultaneously — the better team collapsing while the worse team spikes — is the signature of a genuine outlier game rather than a form change; Buffalo's other 15 games back up its 3rd-ranked baseline, so this result says more about one Sunday than about either team's real level.
Miami ran +0.348 EPA/play hotter than its own 2025 average; Buffalo ran -0.223 colder
ComparisonIn-game EPA/play vs each team's 2025 season average (this game excluded)
| Team | This game EPA/play | This game success% | Season avg EPA/play | Season NFL rank | Delta vs own average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | -0.074 | 42.4% | 0.128 | 3rd | -0.223 |
| MIA | 0.312 | 43.1% | -0.029 | 22nd | +0.348 |
Buffalo entered as the NFL's 3rd-most efficient offense by EPA/play (0.128 across its other 15 games); Miami entered 22nd (-0.029). For one Sunday the labels flipped: Miami outproduced its own season rate by nearly 0.35 EPA/play, while a top-3 offense in Buffalo cratered to almost a quarter-point below its own baseline.
Why it matters. A same-game swing this size for BOTH teams simultaneously — the better team collapsing while the worse team spikes — is the signature of a genuine outlier game rather than a form change; Buffalo's other 15 games back up its 3rd-ranked baseline, so this result says more about one Sunday than about either team's real level.
Miami led 16-0 through three quarters while Buffalo's offense posted its worst half of the season
SplitScore at end of each quarter (MIA home, BUF away)
| Qtr | MIA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 2 | 16 | 0 |
| 3 | 16 | 0 |
| 4 | 30 | 13 |
First half vs second half efficiency
| Team | Half | Plays | EPA/play | Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | H1 | 24 | -0.534 | 29.2% |
| BUF | H2 | 42 | 0.189 | 50.0% |
| MIA | H1 | 34 | 0.248 | 47.1% |
| MIA | H2 | 17 | 0.442 | 35.3% |
Buffalo's -0.534 EPA/play across 24 first-half snaps is a near-total offensive shutdown; Miami had already built a 16-0 lead by intermission. Buffalo's second half looked like a different team (+0.189), but by then Miami was playing containment rather than desperation defense — most of Buffalo's 13 points came in the fourth quarter, after the outcome was mostly decided.
Why it matters. Splitting the game by half separates 'bad all game' from 'bad when it mattered' — Buffalo's rebound came against a defense no longer under pressure to be aggressive, a materially different context than the scoreless first 30 minutes.
Miami snapped a 6-game losing streak to Buffalo with this win
MilestoneBUF-MIA series, 2020-2025 (all meetings)
| Season | Wk | Away | Home | Away Score | Home Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | BUF | MIA | 31 | 28 | BUF |
| 2020 | 17 | MIA | BUF | 26 | 56 | BUF |
| 2021 | 2 | BUF | MIA | 35 | 0 | BUF |
| 2021 | 8 | MIA | BUF | 11 | 26 | BUF |
| 2022 | 3 | BUF | MIA | 19 | 21 | MIA |
| 2022 | 15 | MIA | BUF | 29 | 32 | BUF |
| 2023 | 4 | MIA | BUF | 20 | 48 | BUF |
| 2023 | 18 | BUF | MIA | 21 | 14 | BUF |
| 2024 | 2 | BUF | MIA | 31 | 10 | BUF |
| 2024 | 9 | MIA | BUF | 27 | 30 | BUF |
| 2025 | 3 | MIA | BUF | 21 | 31 | BUF |
| 2025 | 10 | BUF | MIA | 13 | 30 | MIA |
Buffalo won 6 straight meetings with Miami between the 2022 Week 3 rematch and this season's Week 3 game. This Week 10 result was Miami's first win over Buffalo since Week 3 of the 2022 season.
Why it matters. A division-series streak this long (6 straight, spanning nearly three seasons) is a real signal of a competitive gap; snapping it — and doing so this decisively — is a more meaningful marker than a single random win against a team Miami had otherwise solved nothing against for three years.
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